發(fā)布時間：2018-05-31 17:31

  本文選題：供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革 + 信貸集中�。� 參考：《安徽財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：政府主導(dǎo)的四萬億經(jīng)濟刺激計劃使得信貸進入的高速、持續(xù)增長期。在信貸高速增長的溫床下,經(jīng)濟也快速發(fā)展,但進入“新常態(tài)”后,經(jīng)濟發(fā)展速度放緩,且因為存在著一系列結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾,如持續(xù)上升的生產(chǎn)成本、不斷下降的資本邊際效率、錯位配置的產(chǎn)品供需、以及運行不暢的市場機制等突出的結(jié)構(gòu)性問題,經(jīng)濟下行壓力的烏云籠罩在人們心頭,各種潛在風(fēng)險的危害性不容低估。為此,三去一降一補的供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革,由習(xí)近平總書記在中央財經(jīng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)小組會議上著重提出。在過去幾年,信貸投放多集中在制造業(yè)、房地產(chǎn)業(yè)等“高產(chǎn)能”、“高庫存“的行業(yè)。信貸投放趨利避害,向沿海城市、向產(chǎn)能過剩、庫存過多、杠桿率程度過大的行業(yè)和地區(qū)集中,這從本質(zhì)上來講即是供給側(cè)的問題。信貸過度集中給經(jīng)濟可能帶來的系統(tǒng)性、積累性、毀滅性的影響同樣也不容忽視。本文從信貸風(fēng)險的一般界定開始寫起,介紹了信貸集中的相關(guān)理論,并闡述了信貸集中的一般測量方法。通過收集整理我國具有代表性的國有商業(yè)銀行、股份制商業(yè)銀行、城市商業(yè)銀行中11家上市銀行的數(shù)據(jù)、測量相關(guān)指標我們發(fā)現(xiàn),信貸集中主要表現(xiàn)在信貸客戶集中、信貸行業(yè)集中、信貸地域集中等幾個方面。鑒于供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革于2015年底提出,目前可查詢的信貸數(shù)據(jù)多截止于2015年底,故此本文由供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革對宏觀經(jīng)濟運行的影響出發(fā),預(yù)測和估計信貸集中在2015年后的演化表現(xiàn):信貸集中由制造業(yè)、房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)向要素驅(qū)動型、集約型行業(yè)。關(guān)注近年來的金融危機,如啤酒花事件、由美國次貸危機引發(fā)的金融危機我們可以看到信貸集中風(fēng)險對于宏觀經(jīng)濟的系統(tǒng)性、積累性、毀滅性的影響。由于信貸集中涉及方方面面、各行各業(yè),也對信貸集中風(fēng)險的協(xié)同監(jiān)管提出了新的要求。為此,我們可以通過加強銀行業(yè)、證券業(yè)、保險業(yè)以及中央銀行和銀監(jiān)會等部門的協(xié)同監(jiān)管,防范和化解信貸集中風(fēng)險。通過改善金融生態(tài)環(huán)境提高銀行信貸投放積極性、重新定位信貸集中監(jiān)管的價值目標、改變商業(yè)銀行經(jīng)營觀念、建立風(fēng)險預(yù)警線,以期促進經(jīng)濟的持續(xù)穩(wěn)健運行。
[Abstract]:The government-led 4 trillion stimulus package allowed credit to enter a period of high-speed and sustained growth. Under the hotbed of rapid credit growth, the economy has also developed rapidly, but after entering the "new normal", the economic development rate has slowed down, and because of a series of structural contradictions, such as rising production costs, declining marginal efficiency of capital, The misplaced supply and demand of products, as well as the poor market mechanism and other prominent structural problems, economic downward pressure clouds in people's minds, the harm of various potential risks should not be underestimated. To this end, the supply-side structural reform of "three go, one drop and one supplement" was emphatically put forward by General Secretary Xi Jinping at the meeting of the Central Financial and Economic leading Group. In the past few years, credit has been concentrated in industries such as manufacturing, real estate and other "high-capacity" and "high-inventory" industries. Credit flows to coastal cities, overcapacity, overstocking, and over-leveraged industries and regions are essentially supply-side problems. The possible systemic, cumulative and devastating effects of excessive concentration of credit on the economy should also be ignored. This paper begins with the general definition of credit risk, introduces the relevant theories of credit concentration, and expounds the general measurement methods of credit concentration. By collecting and collating the data of 11 listed banks in China's representative state-owned commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks and urban commercial banks, we find that the credit concentration is mainly manifested in the credit customer concentration. Credit industry concentration, credit regional concentration and other aspects. Since the supply-side structural reform was proposed at the end of 2015, and most of the available credit data ended at the end of 2015, this paper starts with the impact of supply-side structural reform on the macroeconomic operation. Forecast and estimate the evolution performance of credit concentration after 2015: credit concentration from manufacturing, real estate industry to factor driven, intensive industry. Focusing on the recent financial crises, such as hops, and the financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, we can see the systemic, cumulative and destructive effects of credit concentration risk on the macroeconomic. Because credit centralization involves all aspects, various industries also put forward new requirements for credit concentration risk coordination supervision. To this end, we can prevent and defuse credit concentration risk by strengthening the coordinated supervision of banking, securities, insurance and other departments such as the Central Bank and the Banking Regulatory Commission. By improving the financial ecological environment, improving the enthusiasm of bank credit, repositioning the value target of centralized supervision of credit, changing the management concept of commercial banks and establishing a risk warning line, we hope to promote the sustained and steady operation of the economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.4

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