本文選題：跨期均衡 + 傾斜消費(fèi)行為��； 參考：《山東師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：從2005年開始，美國房地產(chǎn)市場的火爆和金融資產(chǎn)市場的繁榮發(fā)展帶動了世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度加快，中國出口貿(mào)易規(guī)模迅速擴(kuò)大，中國的經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差因此大幅度增長。隨著2008年美國次貸危機(jī)爆發(fā)，其消費(fèi)和進(jìn)口大幅度下降，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入低迷，中國經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差有一定幅度的下降，但仍然處于“高燒不退”的狀態(tài)。在這一時(shí)期，我們也可以發(fā)現(xiàn)中國的貿(mào)易條件在逐漸惡化。因?yàn)橐粐Q(mào)易條件狀況代表了一國在國際貿(mào)易中的競爭力，所以在我國實(shí)現(xiàn)對外貿(mào)易規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大的同時(shí)，必須認(rèn)真研究中國近年來經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差和貿(mào)易條件惡化的深層次原因，為進(jìn)一步采取可行的宏觀調(diào)控政策和經(jīng)濟(jì)改革政策提供理論支持。 本文對經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目和貿(mào)易條件的國內(nèi)外研究成果進(jìn)行了梳理，側(cè)重于對跨期均衡分析理論的發(fā)展和應(yīng)用。闡述了跨期均衡理論的歷史發(fā)展脈絡(luò)，也簡單總結(jié)了不同的經(jīng)濟(jì)變量對經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目影響的研究文獻(xiàn)。在貿(mào)易條件的文獻(xiàn)綜述方面，闡述了貿(mào)易條件惡化論與貧困化增長理論，整理了幾種可能導(dǎo)致貿(mào)易條件惡化的經(jīng)濟(jì)因素，梳理了影響中國貿(mào)易條件惡化因素的研究成果。 隨后對經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目與消費(fèi)行為的相互作用過程進(jìn)行了理論分析和實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。通過理論分析分別將平滑消費(fèi)行為和傾斜消費(fèi)行為對經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目的影響分解為平滑性經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目和傾斜性經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目。根據(jù)理論推斷出中國巨額經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差產(chǎn)生的原因是中國居民傾斜消費(fèi)行為導(dǎo)致的傾斜性經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差大于平滑消費(fèi)行為導(dǎo)致的平滑性經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目逆差。通過實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)得出傾斜消費(fèi)系數(shù)為1.26大于1，這說明了該理論模型對中國經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目解釋的合理性。通過雷達(dá)、李南的理論模型解釋經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差引起的國際財(cái)富向中國轉(zhuǎn)移對中國貿(mào)易條件產(chǎn)生有利還是有害的影響，這取決于對一國消費(fèi)行為的分析，即中國經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差導(dǎo)致貿(mào)易條件惡化是中國特殊消費(fèi)行為的結(jié)果或中國特殊消費(fèi)行為在外部經(jīng)濟(jì)中的表現(xiàn)。特殊消費(fèi)行為具體體現(xiàn)為構(gòu)成宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的微觀個體偏好于外國商品，偏好于勞動而非閑暇，隨后進(jìn)行的實(shí)證分析也證明了經(jīng)理論推導(dǎo)后得出的結(jié)論的合理性。 在微觀消費(fèi)行為對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生影響的作用機(jī)制分析上，本文利用博弈論中囚徒困境模型來分析經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差和貿(mào)易條件惡化背后的微觀因素，分別通過兩同質(zhì)消費(fèi)者博弈、年輕人與老年人的消費(fèi)博弈、政府向老年人補(bǔ)貼時(shí)年輕人和老年人的博弈以及政府向年輕人補(bǔ)貼時(shí)年輕人和老年人的博弈幾種情況，分析說明了中國居民消費(fèi)偏低的原因是其消費(fèi)行為決策陷入了囚徒困境。同時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)政府向年輕人消費(fèi)策略“多”進(jìn)行補(bǔ)貼時(shí)年輕人和老年人的博弈分析給出了一種擺脫囚徒困境的出路，即解決居民消費(fèi)不振的一種出路，，這體現(xiàn)在要合理培育年輕人改變不合理的消費(fèi)偏好，進(jìn)而會促進(jìn)生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級，進(jìn)而實(shí)現(xiàn)中國對外經(jīng)濟(jì)平衡，進(jìn)一步提高國民經(jīng)濟(jì)福利。 在結(jié)論和政策建議方面，得出了兩個結(jié)論：一是實(shí)際經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差的產(chǎn)生是因?yàn)閮A斜消費(fèi)行為對經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目的影響程度超過平滑消費(fèi)行為對經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目影響的結(jié)果，大于1的傾斜消費(fèi)系數(shù)在經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差產(chǎn)生過程中起了重要作用，該系數(shù)代表著微觀個體向未來消費(fèi)傾斜的特殊消費(fèi)行為；二要使經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差所積累的對外凈資產(chǎn)可以真正提升我國社會福利，抑制貿(mào)易條件惡化是一個必要條件。本文分析發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差導(dǎo)致貿(mào)易條件惡化是由于中國居民不能產(chǎn)生對國內(nèi)產(chǎn)品的消費(fèi)偏好，在“勞動-閑暇”選擇中過于偏好勞動，抑制了閑暇的消費(fèi)需求。同時(shí)本文給出了可能的政策措施，包括改善供給結(jié)構(gòu)和需求結(jié)構(gòu)的匹配、凈化消費(fèi)環(huán)境，促進(jìn)新型消費(fèi)形態(tài)的發(fā)展，加強(qiáng)社會保障體系建設(shè)，培育居民對本國產(chǎn)品的忠誠度，企業(yè)加強(qiáng)品牌建設(shè)，促進(jìn)居民閑暇消費(fèi)。最后特別強(qiáng)調(diào)培養(yǎng)年輕人合理消費(fèi)偏好對未來中國經(jīng)濟(jì)健康發(fā)展的重要意義。
[Abstract]:Since 2005, the booming of the American real estate market and the prosperity and development of the financial assets market have led to the accelerated growth of the world economy, the rapid expansion of China's export trade scale, and the large increase in China's current account surplus. As the American subprime crisis broke out in 2008, its consumption and import fell sharply and the global economy fell into the world. In this period, we can also find that China's terms of trade are deteriorating, because the conditions of a country's trade conditions represent the competitiveness of a country in international trade, so the scale of foreign trade is expanding in our country. At the same time, we must carefully study the deep reasons of China's current account surplus and the deterioration of the trade conditions in recent years, and provide theoretical support for the further adoption of feasible macroeconomic regulation policies and economic reform policies.
This paper combs the domestic and foreign research achievements of current account and trade conditions, focuses on the development and application of the theory of intertemporal equilibrium analysis, expounds the historical development of the theory of cross term equilibrium, and briefly summarizes the research literature on the influence of different economic variables on the current account. The theory of the deterioration of trade conditions and the theory of impoverished growth has been made, and several economic factors that may cause the deterioration of the trade conditions have been sorted out, and the results of the factors affecting the deterioration of China's trade conditions have been combed.
Then the interaction process of the current account and the consumer behavior is analyzed theoretically and empirically. Through the theoretical analysis, the effects of the smooth consumption behavior and the slant consumption behavior on the current account are decomposed into the smooth current account and the sloping current account. The reason is that the sloping current account surplus caused by the inclined consumption behavior of Chinese residents is greater than the smooth current account deficit caused by the smooth consumption behavior. By the empirical test, the inclined consumption coefficient is 1.26 greater than 1, which shows that the theoretical model is rational to the Chinese regular account interpretation. The theoretical model of Li Nan is solved by radar. The transfer of international wealth from the current account surplus to China has a favorable or harmful effect on China's trade conditions, which depends on the analysis of the consumption behavior of a country, that is, the deterioration of the trade conditions caused by China's current account surplus is the result of China's special consumption behavior or the performance of China's special consumption behavior in the external economy. The specific consumption behavior is embodied in the macro economy as the micro individual preference for foreign goods, preference for labor rather than leisure. The subsequent empirical analysis also proves the reasonableness of the conclusions derived from the theoretical deduction.
In the analysis of the impact mechanism of micro consumption behavior on the macro-economy, this paper uses the prisoner dilemma model in game theory to analyze the micro factors behind the current account surplus and the deterioration of the trade conditions, through the two homogeneity consumer game, the elimination game between the young and the elderly, the government to the elderly and the young people when the government subsidize them. The game of the elderly and the game of the game between the young and the elderly when the government subsidized the young people showed that the reason for the low consumption of the Chinese residents was that the decision of their consumption behavior fell into the prisoner's dilemma. At the same time, the game analysis of the young and the elderly was found out when the government subsidized the "more" of the young people's consumption strategy. A way out of the prisoner's dilemma is to solve the poor consumption of the residents, which is reflected in the rational cultivation of young people to change the irrational consumption preference, and then to promote the upgrading of the production and consumption structure, thus realizing the balance of China's foreign economy and further improving the economic welfare of the country and the people.
In the conclusion and policy recommendations, two conclusions are drawn: first, the actual current account surplus is produced because the impact of the slant consumption behavior on the current account is more than the effect of the smooth consumption behavior on the current account. The higher than 1 of the inclined consumption coefficient plays an important role in the production of the current account surplus. It represents the special consumption behavior that the micro individual inclining to the future consumption; two the external net assets accumulated by the current account surplus can really improve the social welfare of our country, and restrain the deterioration of the trade conditions is a necessary condition. The consumption preference of domestic products, in the choice of "labor leisure", is too preference for labor and restraining the consumption demand of leisure. At the same time, the possible policy measures are given, including improving the matching of the supply structure and demand structure, purifying the consumption environment, promoting the development of new consumption form, strengthening the construction of social security system and cultivating the residents. For the loyalty of domestic products, the enterprise strengthens the brand construction and promotes the leisure consumption of the residents. Finally, it emphasizes the importance of cultivating the reasonable consumption preference of young people to the healthy development of China's economy in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F752.6;F126.1

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