本文選題：住房市場 + 評價指標　； 參考：《城市發(fā)展研究》2014年12期

【摘要】：一直以來,房地產市場的運行狀況都是社會各界關注的焦點。論文從價量兩個維度分別構建"房價合理性指數(shù)"和"市場交易活躍性指數(shù)",依此對住房市場的運行情況進行綜合評價。在價格維度,通過比較實際房價相對于其理論上的合理值的偏離程度,來衡量其合理性;在數(shù)量維度,通過比較實際銷售概率與建設周期(倒數(shù))之間差異,評價住房市場交易的活躍程度。論文對2011年第1季度到2014年第1季度中國35個大中城市住房市場運行情況進行測算,其結果較好地反映了現(xiàn)實情況,特別是價格和數(shù)量兩個維度的指數(shù)對政策的反饋作用均非常顯著:主要城市的房價合理性水平在考察期內呈現(xiàn)先上升后下降再緩慢上升的趨勢;而交易活躍性指數(shù)則表現(xiàn)出與合理性指數(shù)相反的結果。
[Abstract]:All along, the operation of the real estate market is the focus of attention from all walks of life. In this paper, the rationality index of house price and the index of market transaction activity are constructed from the two dimensions of price and quantity, and the operation of housing market is evaluated synthetically. In the price dimension, the rationality of the real house price is measured by comparing the deviation degree of the real house price relative to its reasonable value in theory, while in the quantitative dimension, the difference between the actual sales probability and the construction cycle (reciprocal) is compared. Evaluate the activity of housing market transactions. The paper calculates the housing market of 35 large and medium cities from the first quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2014, and the results reflect the reality. Especially the index of price and quantity has a significant feedback effect on the policy: the reasonable level of house price in major cities increases first then decreases and then rises slowly during the investigation period; On the other hand, the index of transaction activity shows the opposite result with the rationality index.
【作者單位】： 清華大學恒隆房地產研究中心 清華大學建設管理系;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金優(yōu)秀青年基金項目(71322307) 面上項目(71273154,71373006) 青年項目(71003060) 教育部新世紀人才支持計劃(NCET-12-0313) 清華大學自主科研計劃項目
【分類號】：F299.23

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本文編號：1948191