本文選題：住宅需求 + 影響因素��； 參考：《華中師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)作為房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的一個(gè)重要組成部分,與國(guó)民的生活水平息息相關(guān)。居住需求是人類的基本需求之一,住宅商品是人類的生活必需品之一。住宅商品因?yàn)槠涮厥庑?所以具備了經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)的雙重屬性。住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展程度與住宅價(jià)格的高低水平,直接影響著國(guó)民生活水平的高低和國(guó)民生活質(zhì)量的好壞。隨著社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展和人民收入水平的提高以及城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)的推行,人們對(duì)于住宅的需求水平逐步增長(zhǎng),對(duì)于住宅品質(zhì)的要求也逐步提高。住宅市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展在社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過(guò)程中的重要性愈發(fā)凸顯,對(duì)住宅需求問(wèn)題的妥善解決不僅有利于國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展而且有利于人民的安居樂(lè)業(yè)和社會(huì)的長(zhǎng)治久安。 一般來(lái)講,住宅需求的影響因素大體可分為經(jīng)濟(jì)性和非經(jīng)濟(jì)性兩大方面。本文從經(jīng)濟(jì)性和非經(jīng)濟(jì)性兩方面對(duì)武漢市商品住宅需求的影響因素進(jìn)行了定性分析,在這些影響因素中選取了部分可量化的因素,運(yùn)用武漢市1999年至2013年的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),以商品住宅銷售面積為母序列,通過(guò)對(duì)變量的灰色斜率關(guān)聯(lián)度的計(jì)算,分析了這些因素對(duì)武漢市商品住宅需求的影響程度。然后以新古典住宅主義理論為基礎(chǔ),以住宅商品同質(zhì)屬性為假設(shè)前提,提出了住宅需求模型。以商品住宅銷售面積為因變量,各可量化的影響因素為自變量,利用最小二乘法,對(duì)假設(shè)模型進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),最后證明城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入、商品住宅銷售均價(jià)和五年期貸款利率這三個(gè)影響因素與武漢市商品住宅銷售量顯著相關(guān)。說(shuō)明了武漢市商品住宅需求量與城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入呈正相關(guān),與商品住宅銷售均價(jià)以及五年期貸款利率呈負(fù)相關(guān)。 對(duì)武漢市商品住宅需求影響因素進(jìn)行分析和計(jì)算,可以找出對(duì)武漢市商品住宅需求最相關(guān)的影響因素,有利于把握武漢市商品住宅需求的特點(diǎn)及發(fā)展趨勢(shì),有利于對(duì)武漢市商品住宅需求做出準(zhǔn)確判斷和預(yù)測(cè),對(duì)消費(fèi)者的購(gòu)房行為、房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的投資發(fā)展以及政府宏觀調(diào)控政策的制定都有一定的指導(dǎo)意義。對(duì)武漢市商品住宅需求函數(shù)的研究,有利于掌握各影響因素對(duì)住宅需求的影響程度及城市住宅需求對(duì)各主要影響因素變動(dòng)的敏感度,從而有利于根據(jù)城市住宅市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展情況對(duì)各影響因素實(shí)施不同的調(diào)整方向和調(diào)整力度。
[Abstract]:As an important part of real estate industry, housing industry is closely related to the standard of living of the people. Housing demand is one of the basic needs of human beings, residential goods is one of the necessities of human life. Because of its particularity, residential goods have the dual attributes of economy and society. The development degree of housing industry and the level of housing price directly affect the level of national living standard and the quality of national life. With the development of social economy and the improvement of people's income level and the implementation of urbanization, people's demand for housing has gradually increased, and the demand for housing quality has also been gradually raised. The development of housing market is becoming more and more important in the process of social and economic development. The proper solution of housing demand is not only conducive to the sustainable development of the national economy, but also conducive to the people's peace and contentment and the long-term stability of the society. Generally speaking, the influencing factors of housing demand can be divided into economic and non-economic aspects. This paper makes a qualitative analysis on the influencing factors of commercial housing demand in Wuhan from the aspects of economy and non-economy, selects some quantifiable factors among these factors, and applies the statistical data of Wuhan from 1999 to 2013. Based on the analysis of the grey slope correlation degree of the variables, the influence of these factors on the demand for commercial housing in Wuhan is analyzed. Then, based on the neoclassical housing theory and the assumption of the homogeneity of housing commodities, the housing demand model is put forward. Taking commercial housing sales area as dependent variable and quantifiable influencing factors as independent variables, using the least square method, the hypothesis model is tested, and the per capita disposable income of urban residents is proved. The average selling price and five-year loan interest rate of commercial housing are significantly related to the sales volume of commercial housing in Wuhan. It is shown that the demand for commercial housing in Wuhan is positively correlated with the per capita disposable income of urban residents, negatively correlated with the average selling price of commercial housing and the five-year loan interest rate. Based on the analysis and calculation of the influencing factors of the commercial housing demand in Wuhan, the most relevant factors can be found out, which is helpful to grasp the characteristics and development trend of the commercial housing demand in Wuhan. It is helpful to make accurate judgment and forecast on the demand for commercial housing in Wuhan, and has certain guiding significance to the behavior of consumers, the investment and development of real estate enterprises and the formulation of government macro-control policies. The research on the demand function of commercial housing in Wuhan is helpful to grasp the influence degree of various influencing factors on housing demand and the sensitivity of urban housing demand to the change of main influencing factors. Therefore, it is advantageous to carry out different adjustment direction and intensity according to the development of urban housing market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 李真雅;;影響我國(guó)住宅需求的非經(jīng)濟(jì)因素[J];北方經(jīng)濟(jì);2005年14期

2 汪利娜;;貨幣政策在房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控中的不確定性[J];財(cái)經(jīng)科學(xué);2008年05期

3 鄭思齊;任榮榮;符育明;;中國(guó)城市移民的區(qū)位質(zhì)量需求與公共服務(wù)消費(fèi)——基于住房需求分解的研究和政策含義[J];廣東社會(huì)科學(xué);2012年03期

4 胡偉艷;王鈺;;武漢市商品住宅需求影響因素及預(yù)測(cè)[J];工業(yè)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì);2007年05期

5 羅兆烈,關(guān)柯,郭逸;我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)住宅需求結(jié)構(gòu)的分析與預(yù)測(cè)[J];哈爾濱建筑大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);1998年06期

6 朱燕;;我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)需求預(yù)測(cè)模型研究[J];哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2011年02期

7 屠梅曾,孫麗波;上海市區(qū)住宅需求預(yù)測(cè)方法研究[J];上海綜合經(jīng)濟(jì);1999年11期

8 趙昭,王文元,李春敏;城鎮(zhèn)住宅需求預(yù)測(cè)方法[J];建筑經(jīng)濟(jì);2000年09期

9 鐘學(xué)軍;;房地產(chǎn)需求分析[J];科技信息;2010年14期

10 陳彥斌;陳小亮;;人口老齡化對(duì)中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)住房需求的影響[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)理論與經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2013年05期

，

本文編號(hào)：1935669