發(fā)布時間：2018-05-26 02:54

  本文選題：住宅需求 + 影響因素�。� 參考：《華中師范大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)作為房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的一個重要組成部分,與國民的生活水平息息相關。居住需求是人類的基本需求之一,住宅商品是人類的生活必需品之一。住宅商品因為其特殊性,所以具備了經(jīng)濟和社會的雙重屬性。住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展程度與住宅價格的高低水平,直接影響著國民生活水平的高低和國民生活質量的好壞。隨著社會經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展和人民收入水平的提高以及城鎮(zhèn)化建設的推行,人們對于住宅的需求水平逐步增長,對于住宅品質的要求也逐步提高。住宅市場的發(fā)展在社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展過程中的重要性愈發(fā)凸顯,對住宅需求問題的妥善解決不僅有利于國民經(jīng)濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展而且有利于人民的安居樂業(yè)和社會的長治久安。 一般來講,住宅需求的影響因素大體可分為經(jīng)濟性和非經(jīng)濟性兩大方面。本文從經(jīng)濟性和非經(jīng)濟性兩方面對武漢市商品住宅需求的影響因素進行了定性分析,在這些影響因素中選取了部分可量化的因素,運用武漢市1999年至2013年的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),以商品住宅銷售面積為母序列,通過對變量的灰色斜率關聯(lián)度的計算,分析了這些因素對武漢市商品住宅需求的影響程度。然后以新古典住宅主義理論為基礎,以住宅商品同質屬性為假設前提,提出了住宅需求模型。以商品住宅銷售面積為因變量,各可量化的影響因素為自變量,利用最小二乘法,對假設模型進行檢驗,最后證明城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入、商品住宅銷售均價和五年期貸款利率這三個影響因素與武漢市商品住宅銷售量顯著相關。說明了武漢市商品住宅需求量與城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入呈正相關,與商品住宅銷售均價以及五年期貸款利率呈負相關。 對武漢市商品住宅需求影響因素進行分析和計算,可以找出對武漢市商品住宅需求最相關的影響因素,有利于把握武漢市商品住宅需求的特點及發(fā)展趨勢,有利于對武漢市商品住宅需求做出準確判斷和預測,對消費者的購房行為、房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的投資發(fā)展以及政府宏觀調控政策的制定都有一定的指導意義。對武漢市商品住宅需求函數(shù)的研究,有利于掌握各影響因素對住宅需求的影響程度及城市住宅需求對各主要影響因素變動的敏感度,從而有利于根據(jù)城市住宅市場的發(fā)展情況對各影響因素實施不同的調整方向和調整力度。
[Abstract]:As an important part of real estate industry, housing industry is closely related to the standard of living of the people. Housing demand is one of the basic needs of human beings, residential goods is one of the necessities of human life. Because of its particularity, residential goods have the dual attributes of economy and society. The development degree of housing industry and the level of housing price directly affect the level of national living standard and the quality of national life. With the development of social economy and the improvement of people's income level and the implementation of urbanization, people's demand for housing has gradually increased, and the demand for housing quality has also been gradually raised. The development of housing market is becoming more and more important in the process of social and economic development. The proper solution of housing demand is not only conducive to the sustainable development of the national economy, but also conducive to the people's peace and contentment and the long-term stability of the society. Generally speaking, the influencing factors of housing demand can be divided into economic and non-economic aspects. This paper makes a qualitative analysis on the influencing factors of commercial housing demand in Wuhan from the aspects of economy and non-economy, selects some quantifiable factors among these factors, and applies the statistical data of Wuhan from 1999 to 2013. Based on the analysis of the grey slope correlation degree of the variables, the influence of these factors on the demand for commercial housing in Wuhan is analyzed. Then, based on the neoclassical housing theory and the assumption of the homogeneity of housing commodities, the housing demand model is put forward. Taking commercial housing sales area as dependent variable and quantifiable influencing factors as independent variables, using the least square method, the hypothesis model is tested, and the per capita disposable income of urban residents is proved. The average selling price and five-year loan interest rate of commercial housing are significantly related to the sales volume of commercial housing in Wuhan. It is shown that the demand for commercial housing in Wuhan is positively correlated with the per capita disposable income of urban residents, negatively correlated with the average selling price of commercial housing and the five-year loan interest rate. Based on the analysis and calculation of the influencing factors of the commercial housing demand in Wuhan, the most relevant factors can be found out, which is helpful to grasp the characteristics and development trend of the commercial housing demand in Wuhan. It is helpful to make accurate judgment and forecast on the demand for commercial housing in Wuhan, and has certain guiding significance to the behavior of consumers, the investment and development of real estate enterprises and the formulation of government macro-control policies. The research on the demand function of commercial housing in Wuhan is helpful to grasp the influence degree of various influencing factors on housing demand and the sensitivity of urban housing demand to the change of main influencing factors. Therefore, it is advantageous to carry out different adjustment direction and intensity according to the development of urban housing market.
【學位授予單位】：華中師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 李真雅;;影響我國住宅需求的非經(jīng)濟因素[J];北方經(jīng)濟;2005年14期

2 汪利娜;;貨幣政策在房地產(chǎn)調控中的不確定性[J];財經(jīng)科學;2008年05期

3 鄭思齊;任榮榮;符育明;;中國城市移民的區(qū)位質量需求與公共服務消費——基于住房需求分解的研究和政策含義[J];廣東社會科學;2012年03期

4 胡偉艷;王鈺;;武漢市商品住宅需求影響因素及預測[J];工業(yè)技術經(jīng)濟;2007年05期

5 羅兆烈,關柯,郭逸;我國城鎮(zhèn)住宅需求結構的分析與預測[J];哈爾濱建筑大學學報;1998年06期

6 朱燕;;我國房地產(chǎn)市場需求預測模型研究[J];哈爾濱商業(yè)大學學報(社會科學版);2011年02期

7 屠梅曾,孫麗波;上海市區(qū)住宅需求預測方法研究[J];上海綜合經(jīng)濟;1999年11期

8 趙昭,王文元,李春敏;城鎮(zhèn)住宅需求預測方法[J];建筑經(jīng)濟;2000年09期

9 鐘學軍;;房地產(chǎn)需求分析[J];科技信息;2010年14期

10 陳彥斌;陳小亮;;人口老齡化對中國城鎮(zhèn)住房需求的影響[J];經(jīng)濟理論與經(jīng)濟管理;2013年05期

，

本文編號：1935669