本文選題：資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng) + 通貨膨脹��； 參考：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的程度日益增加，同時(shí)，資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的過(guò)度波動(dòng)對(duì)以實(shí)物價(jià)格穩(wěn)定為目標(biāo)的貨幣政策提出了挑戰(zhàn)。因此，分析資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)通貨膨脹的影響，，可以為制定有效的貨幣政策提供依據(jù)�；诖吮疚膶�(duì)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響通貨膨脹的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制進(jìn)行研究，通過(guò)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外研究成果的整理發(fā)現(xiàn)，目前普遍認(rèn)為資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)主要是通過(guò)需求渠道對(duì)通貨膨脹產(chǎn)生影響，即資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)消費(fèi)和投資產(chǎn)生影響，進(jìn)而影響總需求，通過(guò)需求拉動(dòng)引發(fā)通貨膨脹。這一影響的主要傳導(dǎo)渠道是財(cái)富效應(yīng)，托賓Q效應(yīng)，預(yù)期效應(yīng)和信貸渠道等。對(duì)于上述渠道在中國(guó)是否能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)存在一定的爭(zhēng)論，而且鮮有學(xué)者從通貨膨脹成因入手進(jìn)行分析。因此，本文首先分析了通貨膨脹形成的根本原因，認(rèn)為需求拉動(dòng)是影響通貨膨脹的根本原因，資產(chǎn)價(jià)格主要是通過(guò)各種渠道影響總需求，進(jìn)而對(duì)通貨膨脹產(chǎn)生影響，基于此本文建立資產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響通貨膨脹的理論分析框架。之后根據(jù)這一理論分析框架，采取協(xié)整關(guān)系分析，格蘭杰因果分析，VAR模型等方法進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)從長(zhǎng)期看，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格和股票價(jià)格與消費(fèi)和投資存在協(xié)整關(guān)系，并且資產(chǎn)價(jià)格對(duì)通貨膨脹具有一定的指示作用，這說(shuō)明資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)可以引起總需求的變化，進(jìn)而對(duì)通貨膨脹產(chǎn)生影響。最后根據(jù)中國(guó)的具體情況提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:The impact of asset price fluctuation on macroeconomic is increasing day by day. At the same time, the excessive volatility of asset price challenges the monetary policy aiming at the stability of real price. Therefore, analyzing the effect of asset price fluctuation on inflation can provide basis for effective monetary policy. Based on this, this paper studies the transmission mechanism of asset price influencing inflation, and finds out through the collation of domestic and foreign research results, it is generally believed that asset price fluctuations mainly affect inflation through demand channels. That is, the fluctuation of asset price affects consumption and investment, and then affects aggregate demand, which leads to inflation through demand. The main transmission channels of this influence are wealth effect, Tobin Q effect, expectation effect and credit channel. There is some debate about whether these channels can be realized in China, and few scholars analyze the causes of inflation. Therefore, this paper first analyzes the root cause of the formation of inflation, thinks that demand-pull is the fundamental reason that affects inflation, asset prices mainly influence aggregate demand through various channels, and then influence inflation. Based on this, a theoretical analysis framework of asset price influencing inflation is established. Then according to this theoretical analysis framework, using cointegration analysis, Granger causality analysis and VAR model, it is found that real estate price and stock price have cointegration relationship with consumption and investment in the long run. And the asset price has a certain indicative effect on inflation, which shows that the fluctuation of asset price can cause the change of aggregate demand, and then affect the inflation. Finally, according to the specific situation of China put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.51;F822.5

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 周虎;中國(guó)股票價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)通貨膨脹的影響研究[D];首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué);2016年

本文編號(hào)：1891943