本文選題：房地產(chǎn)業(yè) + 新型城鎮(zhèn)化　； 參考：《長安大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：中國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)作為固定資產(chǎn)投資的重要占比行業(yè),其波動與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)周期高度相關(guān),政策的調(diào)整、經(jīng)濟(jì)的振動以及社會需求變化都決定著房地產(chǎn)市場的發(fā)展方向�，F(xiàn)階段我國已開啟城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展的歷史新篇章,過去以GDP增長作為發(fā)展核心的傳統(tǒng)城鎮(zhèn)化,正在向切實完成人口城鎮(zhèn)化以及提升公共服務(wù)質(zhì)量的新型城鎮(zhèn)化轉(zhuǎn)型。城鎮(zhèn)化轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展的大背景下,當(dāng)前房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)模式中存在的問題越發(fā)凸顯,已不能全面適應(yīng)新型城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展要求。房企要想突破現(xiàn)有發(fā)展困境,迎合新的發(fā)展趨勢,就必須與時俱進(jìn),尋找有助于增加就業(yè)機(jī)會和提高人居質(zhì)量的新型房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)模式并加以推廣,從而促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)自身的持續(xù)、健康發(fā)展。本文基于以上研究背景,圍繞房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展路徑做了如下研究:(1)對國內(nèi)當(dāng)前典型開發(fā)模式以及相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的研究進(jìn)行了梳理概括,論述了我國房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)模式所處現(xiàn)狀,并分析總結(jié)出目前我國房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)模式存在的問題包括:能源、資源利用率低,碳排放量高;重資產(chǎn)模式以及融資途徑單一;住宅產(chǎn)品運(yùn)營附加值低,企業(yè)利潤空間下滑。(2)本文基于新型城鎮(zhèn)化背景,從政策形勢、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)以及社會需求三個角度闡述我國當(dāng)前房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)所面臨的形勢;就統(tǒng)計年鑒數(shù)據(jù)繪制直方圖進(jìn)行直觀對比分析,將影響因素分類,為模型實證分析提供參考。(3)基于以上理論研究和數(shù)據(jù)分析,采用動靜相結(jié)合的方法,對房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展的影響因素進(jìn)行量化研究。靜態(tài)研究上選用STIRPAT模型,利用PLS測算方法計算模型中的回歸系數(shù),將解釋變量的彈性系數(shù)分解成直接影響和間接影響兩種類型,探求變量間的交互作用以及該作用對房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展的驅(qū)動。動態(tài)預(yù)測上采用SVAR模型進(jìn)行,利用脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)反映自變量沖擊對于房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展的影響程度以及周期變化,借以明確房地產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)型路徑的主次方向,并據(jù)此給出房地產(chǎn)在融資模式、業(yè)務(wù)模式以及盈利模式三方面的轉(zhuǎn)型路徑。
[Abstract]:China's real estate industry is an important part of fixed asset investment, its fluctuation is highly related to the macroeconomic cycle, the adjustment of policy, the vibration of economy and the change of social demand all determine the development direction of real estate market. At the present stage, China has opened a new chapter in the history of urbanization development. In the past, the traditional urbanization with GDP growth as the core of development is transforming to a new type of urbanization, which effectively completes the urbanization of population and promotes the quality of public services. Under the background of urbanization transformation and development, the existing problems in the current real estate development model are more and more prominent, and can not fully adapt to the requirements of new urbanization development. In order to break through the existing difficulties of development and cater to the new development trend, housing enterprises must keep pace with the times and seek and promote new real estate development models that help to increase employment opportunities and improve the quality of human settlements. In order to promote the real estate enterprise itself sustainable, healthy development. Based on the above research background, this paper makes the following research on the path of real estate development: 1) combing and summarizing the current typical domestic development model and related literature, and discussing the current situation of the real estate development model in China. The problems existing in the real estate development mode of our country include: low utilization of energy, low utilization of resources, high carbon emissions, single model of heavy assets and financing, low added value of residential products operation. Based on the background of new urbanization, this paper expounds the current situation of real estate enterprises in our country from the three angles of policy situation, macro economy and social demand. Based on the above theoretical research and data analysis, the method of combining static and dynamic analysis is adopted to classify the influencing factors and provide reference for the empirical analysis of the model by comparing and analyzing the histogram of statistical yearbook data. Quantitative study on the influencing factors of real estate development. In static research, the STIRPAT model is used to calculate the regression coefficient in the model by using the PLS calculation method, and the elastic coefficient of the explanatory variable is decomposed into two types: direct influence and indirect influence. Explore the interaction between variables and the real estate development driven by this role. The dynamic prediction is carried out by SVAR model. The impulse response function is used to reflect the impact degree and periodic change of the independent variable impact on the real estate development, so as to clarify the primary and secondary direction of the real estate transition path. Based on this, the transformation path of real estate in financing mode, business model and profit model is given.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.233.4

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