本文選題：資源型城市 + 房地產市場風險��； 參考：《西安建筑科技大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：依靠著當地豐富的能源優(yōu)勢,資源型城市逐步發(fā)展壯大起來。伴隨著經濟的快速騰飛及城鎮(zhèn)化進程的推進,房地產市場迅速崛起。房地產價格的高漲使得市場泡沫不斷膨脹,風險日益累積。由于房地產與地區(qū)經濟發(fā)展的之間存在著復雜的互動影響機制,使得房地產風險治理難度加大,同時也會導致房地產風險向地區(qū)經濟的傳導。本文首先從房地產市場特性與資源型城市發(fā)展特性方面分析了房地產市場風險的成因,展現了房地產市場風險從產生到觸發(fā)傳導的動態(tài)演變過程。繼而,基于資產價格波動視角,研究房地產市場風險以房地產價格波動為傳導途徑對地區(qū)經濟的影響機制。重點分析了房地產市場風險通過財富效應、投資效應以及金融加速器效應影響消費與投資等經濟產出變量。并建立向量自回歸模型進行實證研究。結果顯示,房地產價格波動的財富效應十分顯著,這使得當房地產處于經濟下行階段,房地產市場風險會通過財富效應對居民消費支出產生較大影響。但是,房地產價格波動對于投資的直接影響效應并不顯著,但金融加速器效應的存在會放大其對投資的影響效應。最后分析了房地產市場風險對地區(qū)經濟整體發(fā)展的影響。從房地產價格波動對地區(qū)經濟生產總值的脈沖響應與方差分解可以看出,房地產市場風險對地區(qū)經濟的影響是真實存在的,但對比于經濟波動自身的貢獻率,這一影響并不顯著。這說明,做為能源主導型經濟的資源型城市,房地產市場的風險只能在一定程度上影響經濟的發(fā)展增速,而不能徹底改變地區(qū)經濟發(fā)展趨勢。最后,根據以上研究,提出了房地產市場風險的治理對策。通過研究房地產市場風險對地區(qū)經濟的影響機制,探尋促進資源型城市房地產業(yè)與地區(qū)經濟的協(xié)調發(fā)展的有效路徑。
[Abstract]:Depending on the local abundant energy superiority, the resource-based city develops and grows gradually. With the rapid development of economy and the advancement of urbanization, the real estate market is rising rapidly. The soaring real estate price causes the market bubble to expand unceasingly, the risk accumulates day by day. Because of the complex interactive mechanism between real estate and regional economic development, it is more difficult to manage real estate risk, and it will also lead to the transmission of real estate risk to regional economy. This paper first analyzes the causes of the real estate market risk from the characteristics of the real estate market and the development characteristics of resource-based cities, and shows the dynamic evolution process of the real estate market risk from its emergence to triggering transmission. Then, based on the perspective of asset price fluctuation, the paper studies the influence mechanism of real estate market risk on regional economy through the transmission of real estate price fluctuation. This paper mainly analyzes the influence of real estate market risk on economic output variables such as wealth effect, investment effect and financial accelerator effect. And establish vector autoregressive model for empirical research. The results show that the wealth effect of the real estate price fluctuation is very significant, which makes the real estate market risk have a great impact on the residents' consumption expenditure through the wealth effect when the real estate is in the stage of economic decline. However, the direct effect of real estate price fluctuation on investment is not significant, but the existence of financial accelerator effect will amplify its effect on investment. Finally, it analyzes the impact of real estate market risk on the overall development of regional economy. From the impulse response and variance decomposition of real estate price fluctuation to regional economic output, we can see that the impact of real estate market risk on regional economy is real, but compared with the contribution rate of economic fluctuation itself, This effect is not significant. This shows that, as a resource-based city, the risk of real estate market can only affect the economic growth rate to a certain extent, but can not completely change the regional economic development trend. Finally, according to the above research, put forward the real estate market risk management countermeasures. By studying the influence mechanism of real estate market risk on regional economy, this paper explores an effective way to promote the coordinated development of real estate industry and regional economy in resource-based cities.
【學位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23;F127

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