本文選題：房地產(chǎn)周期波動 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動　； 參考：《湘潭大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)在我國取得迅速發(fā)展，是促進(jìn)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和改善人民生活的基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè)之一。根據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)資料，2012年，全國房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資額為7.2萬億元，，同比增長16.2%，對于它的支柱地位，已是不爭的事實(shí)。從上個(gè)世紀(jì)30年代開始，房地產(chǎn)周期波動與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動之間的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系開始顯現(xiàn)出來，即房地產(chǎn)的周期波動除了受自身因素的影響外，還受到整個(gè)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響，反過來又會影響整個(gè)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)。作為我國主要支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)之一，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與國民經(jīng)濟(jì)之間是一個(gè)相互促進(jìn)、相互制約的關(guān)系。因此探討房地產(chǎn)周期波動的規(guī)律以及與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系，使其能產(chǎn)生一個(gè)良性互動，將有利于房地產(chǎn)業(yè)及整個(gè)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)健康持續(xù)發(fā)展。 本文以房地產(chǎn)周期波動與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動為理論基礎(chǔ)，對我國房地產(chǎn)周期波動與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動的相互影響效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了分析，然后選取商品房銷售面積增長率作為反映房地產(chǎn)周期的指標(biāo)，選取全國GDP增長率作為反映經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的指標(biāo)，實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)了我國房地產(chǎn)周期與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的關(guān)系。同時(shí)，本文將經(jīng)濟(jì)因素細(xì)分為國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、全國商品房平均銷售價(jià)格(p)、城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭人均可分配收入(sr)以及城市人口年末數(shù)(cs)，運(yùn)用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)的方法研究了商品房銷售面積（sx）與gdp、p、sr、cs之間的關(guān)系。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明，商品房銷售面積(sx)與gdp、p、sr、cs之間存在長期穩(wěn)定的協(xié)整關(guān)系，房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與國民經(jīng)濟(jì)之間是一個(gè)相互影響的雙向關(guān)系。最后，結(jié)合當(dāng)前我國的房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和本文研究的主要結(jié)論，提出相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the real estate industry has made rapid development in China, which is one of the basic industries to promote the growth of national economy and improve the people's life. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the national investment in real estate development reached 7.2 trillion yuan in 2012, an increase of 16.2 yuan from the same period last year, which is an indisputable fact about its pillar position. Since the 1930s, the internal relationship between the cycle fluctuation of real estate and the fluctuation of economic cycle has begun to appear, that is, the periodic fluctuation of real estate is affected not only by its own factors, but also by the whole national economy. In turn, it will affect the national economy as a whole. As one of the main pillar industries in China, the real estate industry and the national economy promote and restrict each other. Therefore, it is beneficial to the healthy and sustainable development of the real estate industry and the whole national economy to probe into the law of the cycle fluctuation of real estate and the internal relation between the fluctuation of the real estate and the fluctuation of the economic cycle so that it can produce a benign interaction. Based on the theory of real estate cycle fluctuation and business cycle fluctuation, this paper analyzes the interaction effect of real estate cycle fluctuation and economic cycle fluctuation. Then select the commercial housing sales area growth rate as the indicator to reflect the real estate cycle, and select the national GDP growth rate as the indicator to reflect the economic cycle, and empirically test the relationship between the real estate cycle and the economic cycle in China. At the same time, the economic factors are subdivided into gross domestic product (GDP). The average selling price of commercial housing in China, the per capita distributable income of urban households (sr) and the number of urban population at the end of the year are as follows. The relationship between the sales area of commercial housing and GDP / srcs is studied by using the method of co-integration test and Granger causality test (Granger causality test). The empirical results show that there is a long and stable cointegration relationship between commercial housing sales area (SX) and GDP / srcs. The relationship between real estate industry and national economy is a two-way relationship. Finally, combined with the current situation of real estate development in China and the main conclusions of this study, the relevant policy recommendations are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F124.8;F299.23

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