本文選題：房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格　切入點(diǎn)：波動(dòng)性　出處：《貴州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)和財(cái)政收入中有很重要的作用。一方面,房?jī)r(jià)的變動(dòng)影響財(cái)政收入，房?jī)r(jià)的高低影響開發(fā)商開發(fā)房地產(chǎn)的積極性，開發(fā)商的積極性又會(huì)影響土地價(jià)格的高低。由于土地出讓金占據(jù)地方財(cái)政收入中的較大份額，所以房?jī)r(jià)波動(dòng)會(huì)對(duì)地方政府的財(cái)政收入產(chǎn)生影響，從而影響國(guó)家的基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)。另外一方面,房?jī)r(jià)的波動(dòng)和人民的生活息息相關(guān)，由于房產(chǎn)具有特殊性，使得房地產(chǎn)既是生活的必需品，又是投資品。一線城市比如北京、上海、廣州、天津、杭州等，房?jī)r(jià)高居不下,省會(huì)城市和人口較多的城市，對(duì)房產(chǎn)有很強(qiáng)的剛性需求，其房?jī)r(jià)持續(xù)上漲。國(guó)內(nèi)大多都是基于全國(guó)性的房地產(chǎn)的研究，對(duì)貴州省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動(dòng)特點(diǎn)及成因分析的研究目前還不多，而貴州省處于我國(guó)的西南部，其房?jī)r(jià)波動(dòng)特點(diǎn)具有和全國(guó)一樣的共性，也有貴州省自身的特性�；诖�，本文分四個(gè)部分研究貴州省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動(dòng)特點(diǎn)并對(duì)其成因進(jìn)行分析。 第一部分，主要是從房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的特點(diǎn)、形成機(jī)制以及房地產(chǎn)泡沫三個(gè)角度對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行介紹。 第二部分，參閱貴州省每年的統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒，搜集到貴州省2001年到2013年的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的月度數(shù)據(jù)，，對(duì)貴州省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格序列建立模型，最終經(jīng)過驗(yàn)證得到貴州省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格序列為AR（2）過程。 第三部分，用格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)的方法檢驗(yàn)貴州省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格是否與其他經(jīng)濟(jì)因素存在因果關(guān)系，并用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)的方法檢驗(yàn)貴州省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與各因素是否存在長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系。文中主要驗(yàn)證貴州省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與四個(gè)因素的之間的關(guān)系：1、經(jīng)濟(jì)的基本面因素，主要考慮貴州省的GDP和貴州省的商品零售價(jià)格指數(shù)兩個(gè)因素；2、政策因素，主要考慮貨幣供應(yīng)量M1和1-3年的中長(zhǎng)期貸款利率兩個(gè)因素；3、土地價(jià)格；4、虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)，因貴州省虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展比較晚、相對(duì)還不成熟，故文中虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)與貴州省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格變化的關(guān)系沒有做定量的分析。 第四部分，利用上文得到的影響房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格變動(dòng)的因素，分析其對(duì)貴州省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)的影響程度。其中用季節(jié)調(diào)整的方法，分離出貴州省房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格最終的季節(jié)調(diào)整后的序列、最終的季節(jié)因子、長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)循環(huán)序列和最終的不規(guī)則要素分量，并用HP濾波從趨勢(shì)循環(huán)項(xiàng)中分離出周期循環(huán)項(xiàng)，得到房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)周期，對(duì)周期規(guī)律進(jìn)行分析。 最后，得出本文研究的結(jié)論，并提出相應(yīng)的建議，為政府對(duì)房產(chǎn)的宏觀調(diào)控和房產(chǎn)需求者進(jìn)行理性投資做參考。文中還有不足之處，期待改進(jìn)。
[Abstract]:Real estate plays an important role in national economy and financial revenue.On the one hand, the change of house price affects the financial income, the level of house price affects the enthusiasm of developers to develop real estate, and the enthusiasm of developers will affect the level of land price.Because the land transfer fee occupies a large share of the local fiscal revenue, the fluctuation of house prices will have an impact on the local government's fiscal revenue, thus affecting the national infrastructure construction.On the other hand, the fluctuation of house price is closely related to people's life. Because of the particularity of real estate, real estate is not only a necessity of life, but also an investment item.First-tier cities, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Hangzhou, etc., with high house prices, capital cities and cities with large populations, have strong rigid demand for real estate, and their house prices continue to rise.Most of the research in China is based on the national real estate research. There are few studies on the fluctuation characteristics and causes of real estate prices in Guizhou Province, and Guizhou Province is located in the southwest of China.Its house price fluctuation characteristic has the same common character with the whole country, also has the Guizhou Province own characteristic.Based on this, this paper studies the fluctuation characteristics of real estate price in Guizhou Province in four parts and analyzes its causes.The first part mainly introduces the theory of real estate price from three angles: the characteristics of real estate price, the formation mechanism and the real estate bubble.The second part, referring to the annual statistical yearbooks of Guizhou Province, collects monthly data of real estate prices in Guizhou Province from 2001 to 2013, and establishes a model of real estate prices in Guizhou Province.Finally, it is verified that the real estate price sequence of Guizhou Province is ARN 2) process.In the third part, the Granger causality test is used to test whether the real estate price in Guizhou Province has causality with other economic factors, and the co-integration test is used to test whether there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the real estate price and each factor in Guizhou Province.This paper mainly verifies the relationship between real estate prices and four factors in Guizhou Province: 1, the fundamental factors of economy, mainly considering the GDP of Guizhou Province and the commodity retail price index of Guizhou Province two factors, the policy factors.Mainly considering money supply M1 and the medium and long-term loan interest rates of 1-3 years, the two factors are three, the land price is 4, and the virtual economy, because the virtual economy of Guizhou Province develops relatively late and is relatively immature.Therefore, the relationship between virtual economy and real estate price change in Guizhou Province is not quantitatively analyzed.The fourth part analyzes the influence degree of the real estate price fluctuation in Guizhou province by using the factors which affect the real estate price fluctuation.Among them, the method of seasonal adjustment is used to separate out the final seasonally adjusted series of real estate prices in Guizhou Province, the final seasonal factors, the long-term trend cycle series and the final irregular element components.The periodic cycle term is separated from the trend cycle term by HP filter, and the real estate price fluctuation cycle is obtained, and the cycle law is analyzed.Finally, the conclusion of this paper is drawn, and the corresponding suggestions are put forward for the government to make a reference for the macro-control of real estate and rational investment for the real estate demanders.There are still some shortcomings in this paper, which are expected to be improved.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：貴州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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本文編號(hào)：1710807