本文選題：貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機制　切入點：PVAR模型　出處：《貴州財經(jīng)大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來,我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展迅速,并帶動上下游產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展,成為促進國家經(jīng)濟增長和就業(yè)的重要產(chǎn)業(yè)。然而,頻頻高漲的房價以及商品房空置率的攀升,使房地產(chǎn)業(yè)對社會和經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生的負面效應(yīng)不斷顯現(xiàn),政府不遺余力采取措施確保房地產(chǎn)市場健康發(fā)展,但收效與預(yù)期之間經(jīng)常偏離。在政府采用的政策組合中,貨幣政策就是使用的重要政策工具之一,貨幣政策的變動對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展影響頗大,對調(diào)控房價起重要作用。由于中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展差異較大,同一貨幣政策對不同地區(qū)房價的影響各不相同。因此,深入測度貨幣政策對區(qū)域房價的影響,是一個值得研究的重要問題。盡管已有文獻使用多種方法從不同角度分析了貨幣政策對房價的影響,但未見分析貨幣政策對房價間接影響的文獻,本文試圖從這個視角對此進行深入研究。首先,通過理論分析貨幣政策在房地產(chǎn)市場的傳導(dǎo)機制,發(fā)現(xiàn)貨幣政策可以通過房地產(chǎn)市場對房價產(chǎn)生間接影響;其次,為有效獲取貨幣政策對房價的直接和間接區(qū)域異質(zhì)性影響,經(jīng)過比較,確定以住房市場存量-流量模型為基礎(chǔ),利用我國30個省份(西藏除外)2006年-2015年的季度數(shù)據(jù),建立面板數(shù)據(jù)向量自回歸模型(PVAR)進行實證研究;最后,根據(jù)實證分析結(jié)果,得出我國貨幣政策對不同地區(qū)房價的直接和間接影響,認為地方政府在央行貨幣政策的基礎(chǔ)上調(diào)整時需要考慮多方面因素的影響,使房地產(chǎn)市場健康有序發(fā)展。本文的主要結(jié)論:1.利率變動對東、西部地區(qū)房價的直接影響較大,信貸變動對中部地區(qū)房價的直接影響較大。2.寬松的貨幣政策會間接導(dǎo)致各地區(qū)短期房價上漲,但對不同地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)市場的影響存在差異。3.緊縮的利率政策會間接導(dǎo)致各地區(qū)短期房價下降,但對不同地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)市場的影響也存在差異。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's real estate industry has developed rapidly and promoted the development of upstream and downstream industries, which has become an important industry to promote the national economic growth and employment.However, the rising housing prices and the rising vacancy rate of commercial housing have made the negative effects of the real estate industry on society and economy more and more obvious. The government spared no effort to take measures to ensure the healthy development of the real estate market.But there is often a deviation between results and expectations.In the policy combination adopted by the government, monetary policy is one of the important policy tools used. The change of monetary policy has a great influence on the development of real estate industry and plays an important role in controlling housing prices.As China's regional economic development is quite different, the same monetary policy has different effects on housing prices in different regions.Therefore, it is an important problem to measure the influence of monetary policy on regional house price.Although many methods have been used to analyze the influence of monetary policy on house price from different angles, there is no literature on the indirect influence of monetary policy on house price. This paper attempts to make a further study from this perspective.First, through the theoretical analysis of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the real estate market, it is found that monetary policy can indirectly affect house prices through the real estate market; secondly,In order to effectively obtain the direct and indirect regional heterogeneity of monetary policy on housing prices, based on the stock-flow model of housing market, the quarterly data of 30 provinces (excluding Tibet) from 2006 to 2015 are determined.Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, the direct and indirect effects of monetary policy on housing prices in different regions of China are obtained.It is considered that local governments should consider the influence of many factors when adjusting the monetary policy of central bank so as to make the real estate market develop healthily and orderly.The main conclusion of this paper is: 1.The change of interest rate has a great direct influence on the house price in the east and west, and the change of credit has a great direct influence on the house price in the central region.Loose monetary policy will indirectly lead to short-term housing price increases in all regions, but the impact on the real estate market varies from region to region.Tightening interest rates will indirectly lead to a drop in short-term house prices across regions, but the impact on the property market varies from region to region.
【學位授予單位】：貴州財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F822.0;F299.23

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 鐘少穎;王蕊;陳銳;;貨幣政策,市場預(yù)期與房地產(chǎn)價格[J];管理評論;2016年05期

2 吳繼貴;葉阿忠;;環(huán)境、能源、R&D與經(jīng)濟增長互動關(guān)系的研究[J];科研管理;2016年01期

3 鄧韜;賈生華;王心蕊;;銀行信貸對商品房價格影響的區(qū)域異質(zhì)性研究[J];江西財經(jīng)大學學報;2015年04期

4 王迅;;土地價格、房地產(chǎn)信貸規(guī)模與房價的相互影響與均衡關(guān)系[J];系統(tǒng)工程;2015年02期

5 尹燕;張宇青;周應(yīng)恒;;我國對外貿(mào)易依存度與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟增長——基于面板誤差修正模型和面板VAR的實證分析[J];宏觀經(jīng)濟研究;2013年11期

6 俞立平;;不同科研經(jīng)費投入與產(chǎn)出互動關(guān)系的實證研究——基于面板數(shù)據(jù)及面板VAR模型的估計[J];科研管理;2013年10期

7 鄧宏乾;賈傅麟;;地價、信貸與房價的關(guān)聯(lián)性研究[J];武漢大學學報(哲學社會科學版);2012年05期

8 徐忠;張雪春;鄒傳偉;;房價、通貨膨脹與貨幣政策——基于中國數(shù)據(jù)的研究[J];金融研究;2012年06期

9 李成;黎克俊;馬文濤;;房價波動、貨幣政策工具的選擇與宏觀經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定:理論與實證[J];當代經(jīng)濟科學;2011年06期

10 王先柱;毛中根;劉洪玉;;貨幣政策的區(qū)域效應(yīng)——來自房地產(chǎn)市場的證據(jù)[J];金融研究;2011年09期

，

本文編號：1703928