本文選題：湖南省商品房價格　切入點：影響因素　出處：《中南大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：摘要：近年來,我國國民經(jīng)濟快速發(fā)展,城市商品房建設步伐逐步加快,居民居住條件有了很大改善。然而,居高不下的房價問題開始成為社會普遍關注的問題。為了控制不斷上漲的房價,我國先后出臺了一系列的宏觀調(diào)控政策,但是總體效果不理想。當前的學者對北上廣等一線城市和發(fā)達省份研究較多,而對中部等不發(fā)達地區(qū)研究較少。湖南省作為中部地區(qū)典型的省份,研究湖南省商品房價格影響因素,有利于湖南省商品房市場健康穩(wěn)定、可持續(xù)發(fā)展,也為國家制定宏觀調(diào)控政策提供借鑒。 本文首先在文獻分析的基礎上,對影響商品房價格的因素進行取舍、發(fā)現(xiàn)。其次,運用Pearson、Kendall、Spearman等方法進行相關分析,得出影響湖南省商品房價格的主要因素是貨幣供應量,然后是城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭人均可支配收入、固定資產(chǎn)投資額、地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值、房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資額、人民幣實際有效匯率、商品房施工面積和同業(yè)拆借加權平均利率,而居民消費價格指數(shù)與湖南省商品房價格相關性很小。最后,通過建立多元回歸模型和單位根檢驗、VAR模型、協(xié)整檢驗、格蘭杰因果檢驗、脈沖響應函數(shù)和方差分解等計量方法研究。結果發(fā)現(xiàn),湖南省生產(chǎn)總值、貨幣供應量、城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭人均可支配收入、房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資額、商品房施工面積與湖南省商品房價格都呈顯著正相關,影響系數(shù)分別為0.313、0.678、0.2713、0.148、0.223,其中貨幣供應量影響最為顯著。
[Abstract]:Abstract: in recent years, with the rapid development of China's national economy, the construction of urban commercial housing has been accelerated step by step, and the living conditions of residents have been greatly improved. The problem of high housing prices has become a widespread concern in society. In order to control the rising housing prices, China has successively introduced a series of macro-control policies. However, the overall effect is not satisfactory. Current scholars have studied more first-tier cities and developed provinces such as North China and Guangzhou, while less research has been done on underdeveloped areas such as the central region. Hunan Province is a typical province in the central region. The study of the influencing factors of the commodity housing price in Hunan Province is beneficial to the healthy and stable development of the commercial housing market in Hunan Province, and also provides a reference for the government to formulate macro-control policies. On the basis of literature analysis, this paper makes a choice and finds out the factors that affect the price of commercial housing. Secondly, by using Pearsonian Kendallan Spearman and other methods, the author concludes that the main factor affecting the price of commercial housing in Hunan Province is money supply. Then there are the per capita disposable income of urban households, the investment in fixed assets, the regional gross domestic product, the investment in real estate development, the real effective exchange rate of RMB, the construction area of commercial housing and the weighted average interest rate of interbank borrowing. The correlation between consumer price index and commodity housing price in Hunan Province is very small. Finally, through the establishment of multiple regression model and unit root test VAR model, cointegration test, Granger causality test, The results show that the gross domestic product (GDP), money supply, per capita disposable income of urban households, real estate development investment, etc. There is a significant positive correlation between the construction area of commercial housing and the price of commercial housing in Hunan Province, and the influence coefficient is 0.3130.6780.27130.148n0.223. among them, the money supply is the most significant.
【學位授予單位】：中南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23

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本文編號：1643707