本文選題：房地產　切入點：狀態(tài)空間模型　出處：《南京財經大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：房地產行業(yè)目前已經成為我國的一個重要的支柱行業(yè)，而房價一直是房地產行業(yè)最為敏感的因素，，房價是否合理關系到房地產行業(yè)能否健康的發(fā)展。房價主要是由供求關系所決定的，因此，要解決房價問題就必須從研究房地產的供給和需求入手，因而，研究房地產的供給、需求、供求均衡和其影響因素，并且針對目前房地產市場上出現(xiàn)的問題，提出一系列保證房地產市場健康發(fā)展的對策建議，具有一定的理論意義和現(xiàn)實意義。 本文在總結現(xiàn)有研究成果的基礎上，考慮到經濟結構的變化以及住房制度改革等因素的影響，各個因素在不同的時期對房地產市場的影響程度不同，確定了影響房地產市場供給和需求的主要因素，利用狀態(tài)空間模型的理論構建了房地產市場的供需模型，然后通過建立的狀態(tài)空間模型的分析找出出對供給和需求動態(tài)影響較大的因素，以此為基礎，通過對原有的蛛網模型進行改進，分別在需求模型和供給模型中加入選出的影響較大的自變量，構建了改進的我國房地產市場的蛛網模型——State space-Cobweb模型，并對我國房地產市場進行了均衡分析。 本文以全國的商品房市場為例，建立了全國商品房市場供需的Statespace-Cobweb模型，實證分析結果表明我國商品房市場屬于發(fā)散型的蛛網，其價格和供需不會自動回到均衡狀態(tài)，需要國家進行宏觀調控，最后在實證分析的基礎上給出了我國商品房及房地產市場調控的相關對策建議。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry has now become an important pillar industry in China, and housing prices have always been the most sensitive factor in the real estate industry. Whether the housing price is reasonable or not is related to the healthy development of the real estate industry. The housing price is mainly determined by the relationship between supply and demand. Therefore, in order to solve the housing price problem, we must start with the study of the supply and demand of the real estate, therefore, we must study the supply of the real estate. Demand, supply and demand balance and its influence factors, and in view of the problems in the current real estate market, put forward a series of countermeasures and suggestions to ensure the healthy development of the real estate market, which has a certain theoretical and practical significance. On the basis of summarizing the existing research results, considering the changes of economic structure and the impact of housing system reform and other factors, the impact of each factor on the real estate market is different in different periods. The main factors influencing the supply and demand of the real estate market are determined, and the supply and demand model of the real estate market is constructed by using the theory of the state space model. Then, through the analysis of the established state space model, we find out the factors that have a great influence on the supply and demand dynamics, and based on this, we improve the original cobweb model. By adding the selected independent variables into the demand model and the supply model, this paper constructs an improved cobweb model of China's real estate market, the State space-Cobweb model, and analyzes the equilibrium of the real estate market in China. Taking the commercial housing market in China as an example, this paper establishes the Statespace-Cobweb model of the supply and demand of the national commercial housing market. The empirical analysis results show that the commercial housing market in China is a diverging cobweb, and its price and supply and demand will not automatically return to equilibrium. Finally, on the basis of empirical analysis, the author gives the relevant countermeasures and suggestions on the regulation and control of commercial housing and real estate market in China.
【學位授予單位】：南京財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23;F224

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