本文選題：保留價(jià)格　切入點(diǎn)：損失厭惡　出處：《清華大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：中國城鎮(zhèn)化水平的快速提升使得城市住宅供給面臨許多新挑戰(zhàn)。從發(fā)展趨勢看，城市建設(shè)用地供給有限、征地周期變長將制約新房供給；而人口結(jié)構(gòu)老齡化將釋放部分房源并進(jìn)入二手房市場。過去幾年大城市二手房交易量逐漸超過新房也說明了二手房市場已經(jīng)成為城市商品住宅交易市場的主體。因此研究二手房市場具有十分重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文以保留價(jià)格作為切入點(diǎn)，重點(diǎn)研究了二手房市場買賣雙方的購房決策過程，即買賣雙方在將要購買（或出售）房屋時(shí)，他們的決策怎樣受過去的“價(jià)格信號”及目前處境的影響？基于此，本文研究了買方的錨定效應(yīng)及賣方的損失厭惡這兩種認(rèn)知偏誤行為以及涉及賣方的“產(chǎn)權(quán)約束”效應(yīng)對于各自決策的影響，并研究了這些效應(yīng)如何影響住房宏觀市場。 本文章節(jié)基本遵循了如下分析框架：“現(xiàn)象描述—理論分析—模型建立—數(shù)值模擬—實(shí)證研究—結(jié)論”。研究采用了理論分析、數(shù)值模擬、實(shí)證分析并重的研究方法，以交易的異質(zhì)性替代住房的異質(zhì)性來看住房的價(jià)格，得到的主要結(jié)論和成果包括： 1.改進(jìn)了相關(guān)模型，定量驗(yàn)證了二手房市場的認(rèn)知偏誤及產(chǎn)權(quán)約束對保留價(jià)格的影響。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明，買賣雙方的認(rèn)知偏誤顯著地影響了他們的保留價(jià)格，并最終影響了成交價(jià)格。而賣方未償還的房貸也顯著影響了成交價(jià)格。 2.在研究賣方行為時(shí)，本文將損失厭惡效應(yīng)及首付效應(yīng)的研究拓展到景氣市場中。定量驗(yàn)證了即使在景氣市場，，賣方的保留價(jià)格也受到了過去購買價(jià)格及現(xiàn)在未償還貸款的影響。 3.在買賣雙方行為研究成果基礎(chǔ)上，本文用簡單的博弈模型分析了買賣方的決策過程，定性分析了買賣雙方的行為對市場價(jià)量關(guān)系的影響。并利用數(shù)值模擬方法模擬了當(dāng)市場存在上升或者下降信號時(shí)市場價(jià)格及交易量的變化，發(fā)現(xiàn)了中國住房價(jià)格上升容易下降難的現(xiàn)象，稱之為“價(jià)格棘輪效應(yīng)”。 本文基于中國住房景氣市場豐富并拓展了對行為主體認(rèn)知偏誤及產(chǎn)權(quán)約束的研究，具有一定的理論意義。數(shù)值模擬結(jié)論為改進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)指數(shù)提供了依據(jù)，而實(shí)證結(jié)論也能為政府、企業(yè)及廣大買賣方提供參考和借鑒。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of urbanization in China, the supply of urban housing is facing many new challenges. From the trend of development, the supply of land for urban construction is limited and the period of land requisition will restrict the supply of new houses. The aging of population structure will release some of the housing resources and enter the second-hand housing market. In the past few years, the volume of second-hand housing in big cities has gradually exceeded the new housing market, which also shows that the second-hand housing market has become the main part of the commercial housing market in cities. Therefore, the study of the second-hand housing market has a very important theoretical and practical significance. This paper focuses on the decision-making process of the buyers and sellers in the secondary housing market, that is, when the buyers and sellers are about to buy (or sell) the houses, How are their decisions affected by past "price signals" and their current situation? Based on this, this paper studies the influence of buyer's anchoring effect and seller's loss aversion on their decision making, and how these effects affect the macro market of housing. This chapter basically follows the following analytical framework: "phenomenon description-theoretical analysis-model building-numerical simulation-empirical research-conclusion". The research adopts the research methods of theoretical analysis, numerical simulation and empirical analysis. The price of housing is replaced by the heterogeneity of transaction. The main conclusions and results are as follows:. 1. The improved model is used to quantitatively verify the cognitive bias of second-hand housing market and the influence of property rights constraints on the reserve price. The empirical results show that the cognitive bias of buyers and sellers significantly affects their reserve price. And ultimately affected the transaction price, and the seller's outstanding mortgage also significantly affected the transaction price. 2. In studying seller's behavior, this paper extends the research of loss aversion effect and down payment effect to boom market. The seller's reserve price is also affected by past purchase prices and current outstanding loans. 3. Based on the research results of behavior of buyer and seller, this paper analyzes the decision-making process of buyer and seller by using a simple game model. The influence of the behavior of buyers and sellers on the relationship between market price and quantity is analyzed qualitatively, and the change of market price and trading volume is simulated by using numerical simulation method when there are rising or declining signals in the market. The phenomenon that China's housing prices are easy to rise and fall is called "price-ratchet effect". Based on the rich housing boom market in China, this paper expands the research on cognitive bias and property rights constraints of the behavior subject, which has certain theoretical significance. The numerical simulation results provide the basis for improving the real estate index. The empirical conclusions can also provide reference for the government, enterprises and buyers and sellers.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：清華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23

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本文編號：1587036