本文關(guān)鍵詞： 房地產(chǎn) 可計(jì)算一般均衡模型 社會(huì)核算矩陣　出處：《廈門大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近些年來,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)在整個(gè)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中一直被視為非常重要的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)和其他產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)度高,它的發(fā)展能帶動(dòng)上下游多個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)一直是包括政府、企業(yè)、家庭在內(nèi)各部門投資的熱門領(lǐng)域。但在我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)高速增長的過程中,過高的房價(jià)使普通家庭背上了沉重的負(fù)擔(dān)。基于房地產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)各部門的廣泛影響,本文采用可計(jì)算一般均衡模型對(duì)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的價(jià)格、供給及需求的相關(guān)波動(dòng)進(jìn)行量化分析。本文把國民經(jīng)濟(jì)各行業(yè)劃分為9個(gè)部門,對(duì)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的價(jià)格、供給和需求變化前后各部門和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)相關(guān)指標(biāo)的變化幅度進(jìn)行考量,分析其對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的影響作用。研究結(jié)果顯示： 第一,房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲對(duì)我國除服務(wù)業(yè)以外的所有國民經(jīng)濟(jì)各行業(yè)的產(chǎn)出都具有帶動(dòng)作用,而房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格下跌則具有負(fù)面沖擊作用；房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的上漲可以有效促進(jìn)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,拉動(dòng)GDP,增加投資,但同時(shí)也會(huì)引起通貨膨脹,對(duì)就業(yè)、居民收入和消費(fèi)、進(jìn)出口都造成負(fù)面影響。 第二,房地產(chǎn)供給增加對(duì)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)各部門都具有明顯的帶動(dòng)作用,而房地產(chǎn)供給減少對(duì)各部門也具有明顯的負(fù)面沖擊。 第三,房地產(chǎn)需求增加會(huì)普遍增加國民經(jīng)濟(jì)各個(gè)行業(yè)的產(chǎn)出水平,對(duì)采礦業(yè)和制造業(yè)的帶動(dòng)作用最大。房地產(chǎn)需求的減少則會(huì)對(duì)各行業(yè)的產(chǎn)出有抑制作用。但是房地產(chǎn)需求增加對(duì)各行業(yè)產(chǎn)出的帶動(dòng)作用明顯大于當(dāng)房地產(chǎn)需求減少時(shí)對(duì)各行業(yè)產(chǎn)出造成的負(fù)面影響。 第四,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的波動(dòng)會(huì)對(duì)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)和人民生活產(chǎn)生廣泛的影響。但是房地產(chǎn)業(yè)價(jià)格、供給和需求的增加和減少對(duì)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)和人民生活的影響并不是對(duì)稱的。價(jià)格、供給和需求增長時(shí)所產(chǎn)生的影響作用普遍大于當(dāng)它們減少時(shí)所帶來的影響。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate industry has been regarded as a very important pillar industry in the whole national economy. The real estate industry is highly related to other industries. Its development can promote the development of many industries upstream and downstream. The real estate industry has always included the government. Enterprises, households and other sectors invest in hot areas. However, in the process of rapid growth of real estate in China, the excessive housing prices have placed heavy burdens on ordinary families. Based on the widespread impact of real estate on various sectors of the national economy, This paper uses computable general equilibrium model to quantitatively analyze the fluctuation of price, supply and demand in real estate industry. In this paper, every industry of national economy is divided into nine departments, and the price of real estate industry is analyzed. The magnitude of changes in sectoral and macroeconomic indicators before and after changes in supply and demand are considered, and their effects on economic systems are analyzed. The results show that:. First, the rise of real estate prices has a driving effect on the output of all sectors of the national economy except the service industry, while the decline of real estate prices has a negative impact; The rise of real estate prices can effectively promote economic growth, boost GDP, increase investment, but also lead to inflation, employment, household income, consumption, imports and exports have a negative impact. Second, the increase of real estate supply has a significant driving effect on all sectors of the national economy, and the decrease of real estate supply also has a significant negative impact on all sectors. Third, the increase in real estate demand will generally increase the output level of all sectors of the national economy. The decrease of real estate demand will restrain the output of each industry, but the increase of real estate demand will have more driving effect on the output of each industry than when the real estate demand decreases. The negative impact on the output of various industries. In 4th, the fluctuation of the real estate industry will have a wide influence on the national economy and the people's life. But the increase and decrease of the real estate price, supply and demand will not have a symmetrical effect on the national economy and the people's life. The effects of supply and demand growth are generally greater than when they decrease.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廈門大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F224

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本文編號(hào)：1525166