本文關(guān)鍵詞： 房地產(chǎn) 保障性住房 期權(quán)博弈 風(fēng)險偏好 投資決策　出處：《湖南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：十二五期間，我國計劃建設(shè)3600萬套保障性住房，而中央財政資金壓力巨大，無法持續(xù)發(fā)展。在國家嚴厲的宏觀調(diào)控下，房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)投資保障房是一個重大的市場機遇，同時也是挑戰(zhàn)。房地產(chǎn)投資保障性住房項目面臨著國家宏觀政策、市場風(fēng)險、建設(shè)成本等諸多不確定性因素，其決策是一個極其復(fù)雜的過程。由于傳統(tǒng)投資決策方法忽略了投資項目未來不確定性、信息不對稱等因素，因此需要建立合理的房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)投資決策模型，使其充分考慮到這些不確定性、競爭性以及其自身的風(fēng)險偏好等的影響，從而做出科學(xué)合理的決策。 本文在傳統(tǒng)投資決策方法的基礎(chǔ)上，借鑒國內(nèi)外的研究成果，以全方位的視角，分析了保障性住房項目的不確定性以及不完全競爭性，結(jié)合期權(quán)博弈和風(fēng)險偏好理論，對房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)投資保障性住房進行了研究，建立了保障性住房投資決策體系。主要內(nèi)容如下： （1）首先介紹了保障性住房的定義和種類，比較分析了保障性住房與普通商品住宅的特點，介紹了房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)參與保障性住房建設(shè)的盈利模式及發(fā)展趨勢；然后分析了國家宏觀政策、保障房建設(shè)市場以及保障性住房項目的發(fā)展；最后進行了房地產(chǎn)參與保障性住房市場的SWOT(優(yōu)勢、弱勢、機會和威脅)分析。 （2）結(jié)合投資保障性住房項目的特點，對房地產(chǎn)投資保障房進行了實物期權(quán)分析、博弈分析以及投資決策者的風(fēng)險偏好分析，綜合考慮了保障性住房項目、競爭者和房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)投資決策者的影響。 （3）建立房地產(chǎn)投資保障性住房決策體系。明確保障性住房項目投資的基本問題，并對保障性住房投資決策中的不確定因素進行了定量研究，確定了參與人的價值函數(shù)、投資者的偏好函數(shù)。在期權(quán)博弈和風(fēng)險偏好的理論基礎(chǔ)上，建立房地產(chǎn)投資保障性住房的決策模型。 （4）以湖南省長沙市梅溪湖西片保障性住房建設(shè)項目為背景，運用以上理論和方法，，對房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)A和B分別進行了投資決策分析，以此來證明模型的科學(xué)性和可行性，為其他房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)及政府投資機構(gòu)的決策提供參考。
[Abstract]:During the 12th Five-Year Plan, China plans to build 36 million sets of affordable housing, but the central financial pressure is enormous, unable to sustain development. Under the state's strict macro-control. Real estate investment in indemnificatory apartment is a major market opportunity, but also a challenge. Real estate investment and indemnificatory housing projects are facing many uncertain factors such as national macro policy, market risk, construction cost and so on. Because the traditional investment decision method ignores the factors such as uncertainty of investment project future information asymmetry and so on it is necessary to establish a reasonable investment decision model for real estate enterprises. In order to make a scientific and reasonable decision, the influence of uncertainty, competition and its own risk preference can be fully taken into account. On the basis of the traditional investment decision-making method, this paper uses the domestic and foreign research results for reference, and analyzes the uncertainty and incomplete competitiveness of affordable housing projects from an all-round perspective. Combined with option game and risk preference theory, this paper studies the investment of affordable housing in real estate enterprises, and establishes a decision system of investment in affordable housing. The main contents are as follows: Firstly, it introduces the definition and types of the indemnificatory housing, compares the characteristics of the indemnificatory housing with the ordinary commercial housing, and introduces the profit model and development trend of the real estate enterprises participating in the construction of the supportable housing. Then analyzed the national macro policy, indemnificatory apartment construction market and the development of affordable housing projects; Finally, the SWOT (advantage, weakness, opportunity and threat) analysis of real estate participating in the indemnificatory housing market is carried out. Combined with the characteristics of investment housing projects, the real estate investment indemnificatory apartment analysis, game analysis and investment decision makers' risk preference analysis, comprehensive consideration of affordable housing projects. The influence of competitors and real estate investment decision makers. 3) establishing the decision-making system of real estate investment and indemnificatory housing, making clear the basic problems of the investment of supportable housing projects, and making a quantitative study on the uncertain factors in the decision-making of affordable housing investment. Based on the theory of option game and risk preference, the decision model of real estate investment indemnificatory housing is established. Based on the construction project of affordable housing in Meixi Lake, Changsha City, Hunan Province, the investment decision of real estate enterprises A and B is analyzed by using the above theories and methods. The model is proved to be scientific and feasible, which can be used as a reference for other real estate enterprises and government investment institutions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23;F224.32

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