本文關鍵詞： 房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商 過度自信 過度投資 預售制 保障性住房　出處：《河南大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：自從1998年中國進行商品房市場化改革以后，伴隨著中國城市化進程的不斷加快，中國房地產(chǎn)市場從無到有從小到大，經(jīng)歷了快速的發(fā)展期。特別是從2003年到2007年，迎來了行業(yè)發(fā)展的黃金期。但是隨著2008年金融危機的襲來，一枝獨秀的房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)也難以獨善其身。當年商品房銷售數(shù)量和銷售額雙雙下挫，首次出現(xiàn)負增長。但是2009年我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)就止跌反增，之后雖增速有所放緩，但總量仍逐年遞增。同時為了應對金融危機，中國政府推出了包括4萬億投資計劃在內(nèi)的一系列救市政策，但是在隨后的兩年時間里，很多專家學者直呼部分行業(yè)亂投資，瞎投資，嚴重導致了重復建設、產(chǎn)能過剩的問題，資金利用效率極低。本文希望通過分析得出我國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)在此期間是否也存在過度投資問題，盡可能從根源上找到房地產(chǎn)過度投資的原因所在，并提出解決辦法。 過度投資的研究由來已久，在西方主流的影響因素有以下幾種：信息不對稱，委托代理，自由現(xiàn)金流假說等。而起源于20世紀80年代后期的行為經(jīng)濟學也從微觀心理層面對其進行了分析。本文則希望通過實證來驗證房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)，是否存在過度投資現(xiàn)象的基礎上，聯(lián)系本國實際情況，利用行為經(jīng)濟學數(shù)理模型等工具從微觀主體和中國的經(jīng)濟制度層面上剖析房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的過度投資現(xiàn)象。 文章內(nèi)容如下：第一部分為緒論，概述了本文的研究背景、目的和意義，總結現(xiàn)有解釋過度投資的理論及在各個理論基礎上前人所做的研究，并介紹了本文的研究方法和思路。第二部分概括介紹了房地產(chǎn)業(yè)在我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中的重要地位，發(fā)展狀況以及存在的過度投資的現(xiàn)象。第三部分利用描述統(tǒng)計從多個方向來介紹我國房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，并提出問題。第四部分為實證分析部分，，借助Richardson預測模型，對我國房地產(chǎn)上市企業(yè)過度投資情況進行驗證。第五部分是建立行為金融學半理性數(shù)理模型從微觀層面分析解釋開發(fā)商過度自信導致過度投資情況。第六部分主要是從行業(yè)和國家經(jīng)濟制度層面，分別從房地產(chǎn)銷售制度、房地產(chǎn)信貸和利率非市場化、房地產(chǎn)稅收制度、保障性住房建設四個方面來分析我國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)過度投資的問題，并提出相關改革意見。第七部分是結論，對全文進行總結概括。
[Abstract]:Since the market-oriented reform of commercial housing in China in 1998, with the continuous acceleration of China's urbanization process, China's real estate market has grown from nothing to a large. Experienced a period of rapid development, especially from 2003 to 2007, ushered in a golden period of industry development. But with the 2008 financial crisis hit. It is difficult to get away from the real estate industry alone. Both the sales volume and the sales volume of commercial housing fell in those years, and the first negative growth occurred. But in 2009, the real estate industry in our country stopped falling and instead increased. The pace of growth has slowed since then, but the amount has increased year by year. In response to the financial crisis, the Chinese government has launched a series of rescue policies, including a 4 tillion investment plan, but over the next two years. Many experts and scholars have called for some industries to invest indiscriminately, resulting in the problem of repeated construction and overcapacity. Capital utilization efficiency is extremely low. This paper hopes to find out whether the real estate industry of our country also has the problem of excessive investment during this period, and to find out the cause of overinvestment of real estate from the root as far as possible. And put forward the solution. The study of excessive investment has a long history, and the main influencing factors in the West are as follows: asymmetric information, principal-agent. The free cash flow hypothesis and so on. And behavioral economics, which originated in the late 1980s, also analyzes it from the micropsychological level. This paper hopes to verify the real estate enterprises through empirical analysis. On the basis of the phenomenon of overinvestment, this paper analyzes the phenomenon of overinvestment in real estate industry from the view of micro subject and Chinese economic system by means of mathematical model of behavioral economics and so on, according to the actual situation of our country. The content of the article is as follows: the first part is the introduction, which summarizes the research background, purpose and significance of this paper, summarizes the existing theories to explain overinvestment and the research done by predecessors on the basis of each theory. The second part introduces the important position of the real estate industry in the economic development of our country. The third part uses description statistics to introduce the current situation of real estate development in China from many directions, and puts forward some questions. Part 4th is the empirical analysis part. With the help of Richardson prediction model. This paper verifies the overinvestment of real estate listed enterprises in our country. 5th part is to establish behavioral finance semi-rational mathematical model to explain the overconfidence of developers leading to overinvestment in 6th part. At the level of industry and national economic systems. From the real estate sales system, real estate credit and interest rate non-marketization, real estate tax system, affordable housing construction to analyze the four aspects of China's real estate industry excessive investment. And puts forward the relevant reform opinion. 7th part is the conclusion, carries on the summary to the full text.
【學位授予單位】：河南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 陸建軍,李晶;我國貨幣政策中利率傳導有效性的實證分析[J];財經(jīng)理論與實踐;2002年S3期

2 蔡吉甫;;自由現(xiàn)金流量、過度投資與公司業(yè)績[J];當代財經(jīng);2009年06期

3 伍利娜;陸正飛;;企業(yè)投資行為與融資結構的關系——基于一項實驗研究的發(fā)現(xiàn)[J];管理世界;2005年04期

4 魏明海;柳建華;;國企分紅、治理因素與過度投資[J];管理世界;2007年04期

5 宋芳秀;王一江;任構;;利率、實際控制人類型和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)上市公司的投資行為[J];管理世界;2010年04期

6 梅丹;我國上市公司固定資產(chǎn)投資規(guī)模財務影響因素研究[J];管理科學;2005年05期

7 趙玉成;;利率變動對上市公司投資影響的實證研究[J];經(jīng)濟與管理;2006年02期

8 李克強;;大規(guī)模實施保障性安居工程 逐步完善住房政策和供應體系[J];求是;2011年08期

9 劉懷珍,歐陽令南;經(jīng)理私人利益與過度投資[J];系統(tǒng)工程理論與實踐;2004年10期

10 張梅荷;張學高;扶濤;;我國經(jīng)濟適用房市場存在的問題及對策研究[J];云南行政學院學報;2010年03期

本文編號：1442516