本文關(guān)鍵詞： 房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商 過(guò)度自信 過(guò)度投資 預(yù)售制 保障性住房　出處：《河南大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：自從1998年中國(guó)進(jìn)行商品房市場(chǎng)化改革以后，伴隨著中國(guó)城市化進(jìn)程的不斷加快，中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)從無(wú)到有從小到大，經(jīng)歷了快速的發(fā)展期。特別是從2003年到2007年，迎來(lái)了行業(yè)發(fā)展的黃金期。但是隨著2008年金融危機(jī)的襲來(lái)，一枝獨(dú)秀的房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)也難以獨(dú)善其身。當(dāng)年商品房銷(xiāo)售數(shù)量和銷(xiāo)售額雙雙下挫，首次出現(xiàn)負(fù)增長(zhǎng)。但是2009年我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)就止跌反增，之后雖增速有所放緩，但總量仍逐年遞增。同時(shí)為了應(yīng)對(duì)金融危機(jī)，中國(guó)政府推出了包括4萬(wàn)億投資計(jì)劃在內(nèi)的一系列救市政策，但是在隨后的兩年時(shí)間里，很多專(zhuān)家學(xué)者直呼部分行業(yè)亂投資，瞎投資，嚴(yán)重導(dǎo)致了重復(fù)建設(shè)、產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的問(wèn)題，資金利用效率極低。本文希望通過(guò)分析得出我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)在此期間是否也存在過(guò)度投資問(wèn)題，盡可能從根源上找到房地產(chǎn)過(guò)度投資的原因所在，并提出解決辦法。 過(guò)度投資的研究由來(lái)已久，在西方主流的影響因素有以下幾種：信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)，委托代理，自由現(xiàn)金流假說(shuō)等。而起源于20世紀(jì)80年代后期的行為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)也從微觀心理層面對(duì)其進(jìn)行了分析。本文則希望通過(guò)實(shí)證來(lái)驗(yàn)證房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)，是否存在過(guò)度投資現(xiàn)象的基礎(chǔ)上，聯(lián)系本國(guó)實(shí)際情況，利用行為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)數(shù)理模型等工具從微觀主體和中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)制度層面上剖析房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的過(guò)度投資現(xiàn)象。 文章內(nèi)容如下：第一部分為緒論，概述了本文的研究背景、目的和意義，總結(jié)現(xiàn)有解釋過(guò)度投資的理論及在各個(gè)理論基礎(chǔ)上前人所做的研究，并介紹了本文的研究方法和思路。第二部分概括介紹了房地產(chǎn)業(yè)在我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的重要地位，發(fā)展?fàn)顩r以及存在的過(guò)度投資的現(xiàn)象。第三部分利用描述統(tǒng)計(jì)從多個(gè)方向來(lái)介紹我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，并提出問(wèn)題。第四部分為實(shí)證分析部分，，借助Richardson預(yù)測(cè)模型，對(duì)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)上市企業(yè)過(guò)度投資情況進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證。第五部分是建立行為金融學(xué)半理性數(shù)理模型從微觀層面分析解釋開(kāi)發(fā)商過(guò)度自信導(dǎo)致過(guò)度投資情況。第六部分主要是從行業(yè)和國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)制度層面，分別從房地產(chǎn)銷(xiāo)售制度、房地產(chǎn)信貸和利率非市場(chǎng)化、房地產(chǎn)稅收制度、保障性住房建設(shè)四個(gè)方面來(lái)分析我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)過(guò)度投資的問(wèn)題，并提出相關(guān)改革意見(jiàn)。第七部分是結(jié)論，對(duì)全文進(jìn)行總結(jié)概括。
[Abstract]:Since the market-oriented reform of commercial housing in China in 1998, with the continuous acceleration of China's urbanization process, China's real estate market has grown from nothing to a large. Experienced a period of rapid development, especially from 2003 to 2007, ushered in a golden period of industry development. But with the 2008 financial crisis hit. It is difficult to get away from the real estate industry alone. Both the sales volume and the sales volume of commercial housing fell in those years, and the first negative growth occurred. But in 2009, the real estate industry in our country stopped falling and instead increased. The pace of growth has slowed since then, but the amount has increased year by year. In response to the financial crisis, the Chinese government has launched a series of rescue policies, including a 4 tillion investment plan, but over the next two years. Many experts and scholars have called for some industries to invest indiscriminately, resulting in the problem of repeated construction and overcapacity. Capital utilization efficiency is extremely low. This paper hopes to find out whether the real estate industry of our country also has the problem of excessive investment during this period, and to find out the cause of overinvestment of real estate from the root as far as possible. And put forward the solution. The study of excessive investment has a long history, and the main influencing factors in the West are as follows: asymmetric information, principal-agent. The free cash flow hypothesis and so on. And behavioral economics, which originated in the late 1980s, also analyzes it from the micropsychological level. This paper hopes to verify the real estate enterprises through empirical analysis. On the basis of the phenomenon of overinvestment, this paper analyzes the phenomenon of overinvestment in real estate industry from the view of micro subject and Chinese economic system by means of mathematical model of behavioral economics and so on, according to the actual situation of our country. The content of the article is as follows: the first part is the introduction, which summarizes the research background, purpose and significance of this paper, summarizes the existing theories to explain overinvestment and the research done by predecessors on the basis of each theory. The second part introduces the important position of the real estate industry in the economic development of our country. The third part uses description statistics to introduce the current situation of real estate development in China from many directions, and puts forward some questions. Part 4th is the empirical analysis part. With the help of Richardson prediction model. This paper verifies the overinvestment of real estate listed enterprises in our country. 5th part is to establish behavioral finance semi-rational mathematical model to explain the overconfidence of developers leading to overinvestment in 6th part. At the level of industry and national economic systems. From the real estate sales system, real estate credit and interest rate non-marketization, real estate tax system, affordable housing construction to analyze the four aspects of China's real estate industry excessive investment. And puts forward the relevant reform opinion. 7th part is the conclusion, carries on the summary to the full text.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.23

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