發(fā)布時間：2018-01-13 11:40

  本文關鍵詞：基于COX模型的我國房地產(chǎn)上市公司財務困境預警研究　出處：《西北大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 房地產(chǎn)上市公司 財務困境預警 Cox模型

【摘要】：我國的房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)經(jīng)過十幾年的市場化發(fā)展,已經(jīng)形成了規(guī)�；姆康禺a(chǎn)上市公司,而房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)本身又具有周期長、高投資、高風險、關聯(lián)性強等諸多特點,其本身就是輿論關注的焦點,特別是近年來對房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的宏觀和微觀的調(diào)控,使得該行業(yè)的上市公司隱含著相應的財務風險,對這些財務風險的正確預警和解決將關系到該行業(yè)和國民經(jīng)濟能否健康穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展。 本文回顧了國內(nèi)外有關財務困境預警的研究,通過合理分析房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的特點來挖掘房地產(chǎn)上市公司的風險來源,從而通過選擇我國上市房地產(chǎn)公司作為樣本來構建符合該行業(yè)特征的財務風險預警評價指標體系。根據(jù)樣本數(shù)據(jù),筆者通過Mann-Whitney U非參數(shù)檢驗和Pearson相關性檢驗對財務指標數(shù)據(jù)進行預處理,并將預處理后的數(shù)據(jù)進行實證分析,考慮到動態(tài)性原則,本文采用了生存分析中的Cox模型來擬合多個時間段的樣本數(shù)據(jù),這樣可以防止單期模型所不能反映公司財務狀況趨勢性信息的缺陷。經(jīng)過分析發(fā)現(xiàn),資產(chǎn)負債率、流動比率、已獲利息倍數(shù)、總資產(chǎn)增長率、總資產(chǎn)凈利率、銷售凈利率這六個指標能夠?qū)ξ覈鲜蟹康禺a(chǎn)公司陷入財務困境做出較好的預警,進而對這些指標的現(xiàn)實經(jīng)濟意義做出合理解釋,并提出相應的政策建議。本文的具體內(nèi)容分為六個章節(jié)： 第一章緒論,基于選題背景,提出本文研究的主要問題,并對Cox模型、財務困境預警以及基于Cox模型的財務困境預警的國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀作文獻綜述,最后確定本文研究框架及創(chuàng)新點。 第二章相關基礎理論研究,通過分析公司治理理論、生存分析理論、生命周期理論以及財務預警理論,指出生存分析的Cox模型應用于財務困境預警的適用性和優(yōu)越性。 第三章房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)財務困境,主要分析房地產(chǎn)整個行業(yè)財務困境即將來臨,顯示出本文研究的巨大現(xiàn)時意義。 第四章Cox模型的財務指標設計,全面、系統(tǒng)、科學地選取適用于我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)財務困境預警的財務指標。 第五章Cox模型在我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的財務困境預警應用研究,構建了適合我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)財務困境預警的Cox模型,通過實證結果分析為我國房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)財務困境預警指出明路。 第六章研究結論與局限。
[Abstract]:After more than ten years of market-oriented development, China's real estate industry has formed a large-scale real estate listed companies, and the real estate industry itself has a long period, high investment, high risk, strong relevance and many other characteristics. It itself is the focus of public opinion, especially in recent years on the real estate industry macro and micro regulation, so that the listed companies in this industry implied the corresponding financial risks. The correct early warning and solution of these financial risks will affect the healthy and stable development of the industry and the national economy. This paper reviews the domestic and foreign financial distress early warning research, through the reasonable analysis of the characteristics of the real estate industry to explore the real estate listed companies risk sources. By selecting the listed real estate companies as samples, we can construct the financial risk early-warning evaluation index system according to the characteristics of the industry. According to the sample data. The author preprocesses the financial index data by Mann-Whitney U non-parametric test and Pearson correlation test, and makes empirical analysis of the pre-treated data. Considering the dynamic principle, the Cox model of survival analysis is used to fit the sample data of multiple time periods. This can prevent the single period model can not reflect the trend of the company's financial situation information defects. Through analysis, it is found that the asset-liability ratio, current ratio, interest multiple, total asset growth rate, total net interest rate of assets. The six indicators of net interest rate of sales can give a good warning to the financial distress of listed real estate companies in China, and then make a reasonable explanation for the realistic economic significance of these indicators. The specific contents of this paper are divided into six chapters: The first chapter is introduction, based on the background of the topic, put forward the main issues of this study, and the Cox model, financial distress early warning and financial distress warning based on Cox model of domestic and foreign research on the status quo is summarized. Finally, the research framework and innovation of this paper are determined. The second chapter related to the basic theory research, through the analysis of corporate governance theory, survival analysis theory, life cycle theory and financial early warning theory. This paper points out the applicability and superiority of Cox model of survival analysis in early warning of financial distress. In the third chapter, the financial distress of real estate enterprises is analyzed, which shows the great significance of this paper. In chapter 4th, the financial indexes of Cox model are designed, comprehensive, systematic and scientifically selected, which are suitable for the financial distress early warning of real estate industry in China. In chapter 5th, the Cox model is applied to the financial distress early warning of real estate industry in our country, and the Cox model suitable for the financial distress early warning of real estate industry in China is constructed. Through the empirical analysis of the financial distress of real estate enterprises in China early warning points out the way. Chapter 6th: conclusions and limitations.
【學位授予單位】：西北大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F275;F299.233.4

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