本文關鍵詞：我國居民資產(chǎn)偏好與住房價格泡沫評價　出處：《天津財經(jīng)大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 資產(chǎn)選擇偏好 無差異曲線 住房價格泡沫

【摘要】：自上世紀90年代實施房改政策以來,計劃經(jīng)濟時期的福利分房制度逐漸被市場取代,房價也因此開始發(fā)揮著調(diào)節(jié)市場供求關系的基礎性作用,然而,從我國房地產(chǎn)市場近二十年的發(fā)展狀況來看,我國普通商品房價格基本保持著持續(xù)的快速上漲,其漲幅遠遠高于同期居民收入的增長,1998-2013年,我國普通商品房價格年平均上漲22.8.%,同期城鎮(zhèn)居民年人均收入上漲9.6%,房價漲幅是居民人均收入的2.5倍。由此,本世紀初,在我國引發(fā)了一場有關房價泡沫的討論。絕大多數(shù)學者利用房價收入比的國際比較,經(jīng)濟泡沫模型等論證了我國房產(chǎn)泡沫的存在,并對房價泡沫的程度進行了測算�？v觀現(xiàn)有有關房產(chǎn)泡沫討論的文獻來看,在合理房價的判定過程中,居民家庭資產(chǎn)選擇偏好因素被完全忽略了。本文根據(jù)我國居民家庭資產(chǎn)選擇中特殊的偏好關系,試圖在引入居民家庭資產(chǎn)選擇中房產(chǎn)偏好因素下,重新來討論我國房價泡沫的存在性及其度量。全文共分為五章。第一章導論。介紹選題的背景及意義,主要研究內(nèi)容及其基本結(jié)構(gòu),研究方法與創(chuàng)新。它是本文的概覽。第二章文獻綜述。梳理了國內(nèi)外在資產(chǎn)選擇和房地產(chǎn)泡沫測度領域的相關學術研究成果。第三章基于資產(chǎn)偏好異質(zhì)性的資產(chǎn)選擇模型。當我們將家庭資產(chǎn)選擇范圍從純金融資產(chǎn)擴展至實物資產(chǎn)時,資產(chǎn)的功能性差異便凸顯出來,資產(chǎn)之間存在的功能性差異使得居民家庭在資產(chǎn)選擇過程中并不完全遵循期望收益與風險的選擇模型,它意味著居民家庭在資產(chǎn)選擇過程中具有偏好異質(zhì)性,也就是說,期望收益、風險和偏好共同構(gòu)成居民家庭資產(chǎn)選擇的決定因素,將偏好因素納入資產(chǎn)選擇的研究,建立相應的資產(chǎn)選擇模型就成為本章研究的重點。由于偏好無法直接識別,這里我們選取具有代表性實物資產(chǎn)中的房產(chǎn)和金融資產(chǎn)中的股票資產(chǎn),利用薩繆爾森提出的顯示性偏好理論,在不同的價格水平下依據(jù)我國居民家庭對商品房資產(chǎn)和股票資產(chǎn)的選擇組合推出無差異曲線方程,以此來解決資產(chǎn)選擇偏好的識別問題。它是我們進一步研究的基礎與關鍵環(huán)節(jié)。第四章我國房地產(chǎn)市場均衡分析。在以上理論模型基礎上,利用我國居民家庭資產(chǎn)選擇的無差異曲線推導出我國房地產(chǎn)市場的需求函數(shù)。同時,我們選取人均商品住房竣工面積q和平均房屋銷售價格p運用面板模型構(gòu)建房地產(chǎn)市場的供給函數(shù)。在市場出清條件下,令供給=需求可得到房地產(chǎn)市場的均衡價格p’。均衡房價不僅是我們判斷房價合理性的基石,而且也是測度房價泡沫的基本依據(jù)。第五章我國房地產(chǎn)市場泡沫測度。依據(jù)上一章的均衡房價,在考慮隨機沖擊的前提下來確定我國房地產(chǎn)市場的合理價格,以此為判斷標準,結(jié)合我國八個不同經(jīng)濟發(fā)展程度區(qū)域的35個典型城市房地產(chǎn)市場的相關數(shù)據(jù),測算我國重要城市住房價格泡沫。并與現(xiàn)有研究的相關結(jié)論進行了比較分析。研究表明：我國房地產(chǎn)泡沫確實存在,且泡沫程度差別較大,一線經(jīng)濟發(fā)達城市存在較為嚴重的泡沫,西部等一些欠發(fā)達城市泡沫不明顯。一線城市泡沫的產(chǎn)生要早于二線城市,二線城市大多發(fā)生在2010以后,而且一線城市泡沫度也明顯高于二線城市,截止2010年大部分二線城市均產(chǎn)生了房價泡沫,我國的房價泡沫問題自此從局部轉(zhuǎn)向全局。
[Abstract]:Since the implementation of the housing reform policy since the last century in 90s, during the period of the planned economy of the welfare housing distribution system by the market gradually replaced, prices also began to play a fundamental role in the regulation of market supply and demand however, from the development of China's real estate market over the past twenty years, China's ordinary commercial housing prices basically maintained a rapid rising the rate is much higher than the income over the same period, the growth of residents, 1998-2013 years, China's ordinary commercial housing prices rose an average of 22.8.% years over the same period, per capita income of urban residents rose 9.6%, prices rose 2.5 times the people of all income. Thus, at the beginning of this century, in China triggered a discussion about the housing bubble most of the scholars. The housing price income ratio of the international comparison, the economic bubble model demonstrates that China's real estate bubble, and the housing bubble degree was calculated. With the existing Close the real estate bubble discussed in literature, in the process of determining reasonable price, completely ignores the preference factors of household assets. According to the preferences of family assets selection of Chinese residents in relation to the introduction of household assets in real estate choice preference factors, again to discuss the existence of China's housing bubble and measurement. The text is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is introduction. The background and significance of topics, the basic structure and the main research contents, research methods and innovation. It is the summary. The second chapter is the literature review. Combing the domestic and foreign assets and real estate bubble measure related to the field of academic research. The third chapter based on the assets preference heterogeneity of portfolio selection model. When we choose family assets ranging from pure financial assets extended to real assets, assets will highlight functional differences Out the functional differences between the household assets in the assets selection model in the process is not completely follow the expected return and risk, it means that households in assets with preference heterogeneity in the process, that is to say, the expected return, risk preference and constitute the determinants of household assets, will the preference factors included in the study of asset selection, the establishment of the corresponding portfolio selection model has become the focus of the study in this chapter. The preference can not be directly identified here, we select a representative of stock assets physical assets in real estate and financial assets, the revealed preference theory proposed by Samuelson, in the different price level launch selection based on the combination of China's households on housing assets and stock assets of the indifference curve equation, in order to solve the assets preference knowledge No problem. It is the foundation and the key link of our further research. The fourth chapter is the analysis of China's real estate market equilibrium. Based on the above theoretical model, the choice of our household assets no difference curve is deduced demand function of China's real estate market. At the same time, we selected the per capita housing completed in the area of Q and the average sales price of housing construction of P real estate market by using the panel model. The supply function of clearing in the market conditions, to supply = demand can be obtained in the real estate market equilibrium price. P 'equilibrium prices is not only we judge the price rationality foundation, and it is also the basis to measure the housing bubble. In the fifth chapter, the real estate market in China Bubble measure. Based on equilibrium prices in the previous chapter, considering the random shocks down to determine the reasonable price of the real estate market in China, as a criterion, combined with China's eight The relevant data of different degree of regional economic development of the 35 typical city real estate market, estimates China's important city housing price bubble. And with the relevant existing research conclusions are compared and analyzed. The study shows that China's real estate bubble does exist, and the bubble degree difference is large, there is a serious economic bubble line the developed city, western underdeveloped city bubble is not obvious. First-tier cities bubble earlier in the second tier city, second tier city mostly occurred in 2010, and first-tier cities bubble is significantly higher than the second tier cities, by the end of 2010, most of the second city had a housing bubble, the housing bubble in China since then from local to the overall.

【學位授予單位】：天津財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23

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