本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國(guó)居民資產(chǎn)偏好與住房?jī)r(jià)格泡沫評(píng)價(jià)　出處：《天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 資產(chǎn)選擇偏好 無(wú)差異曲線 住房?jī)r(jià)格泡沫

【摘要】：自上世紀(jì)90年代實(shí)施房改政策以來(lái),計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)期的福利分房制度逐漸被市場(chǎng)取代,房?jī)r(jià)也因此開始發(fā)揮著調(diào)節(jié)市場(chǎng)供求關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)性作用,然而,從我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)近二十年的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r來(lái)看,我國(guó)普通商品房?jī)r(jià)格基本保持著持續(xù)的快速上漲,其漲幅遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于同期居民收入的增長(zhǎng),1998-2013年,我國(guó)普通商品房?jī)r(jià)格年平均上漲22.8.%,同期城鎮(zhèn)居民年人均收入上漲9.6%,房?jī)r(jià)漲幅是居民人均收入的2.5倍。由此,本世紀(jì)初,在我國(guó)引發(fā)了一場(chǎng)有關(guān)房?jī)r(jià)泡沫的討論。絕大多數(shù)學(xué)者利用房?jī)r(jià)收入比的國(guó)際比較,經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫模型等論證了我國(guó)房產(chǎn)泡沫的存在,并對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)泡沫的程度進(jìn)行了測(cè)算。縱觀現(xiàn)有有關(guān)房產(chǎn)泡沫討論的文獻(xiàn)來(lái)看,在合理房?jī)r(jià)的判定過程中,居民家庭資產(chǎn)選擇偏好因素被完全忽略了。本文根據(jù)我國(guó)居民家庭資產(chǎn)選擇中特殊的偏好關(guān)系,試圖在引入居民家庭資產(chǎn)選擇中房產(chǎn)偏好因素下,重新來(lái)討論我國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)泡沫的存在性及其度量。全文共分為五章。第一章導(dǎo)論。介紹選題的背景及意義,主要研究?jī)?nèi)容及其基本結(jié)構(gòu),研究方法與創(chuàng)新。它是本文的概覽。第二章文獻(xiàn)綜述。梳理了國(guó)內(nèi)外在資產(chǎn)選擇和房地產(chǎn)泡沫測(cè)度領(lǐng)域的相關(guān)學(xué)術(shù)研究成果。第三章基于資產(chǎn)偏好異質(zhì)性的資產(chǎn)選擇模型。當(dāng)我們將家庭資產(chǎn)選擇范圍從純金融資產(chǎn)擴(kuò)展至實(shí)物資產(chǎn)時(shí),資產(chǎn)的功能性差異便凸顯出來(lái),資產(chǎn)之間存在的功能性差異使得居民家庭在資產(chǎn)選擇過程中并不完全遵循期望收益與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的選擇模型,它意味著居民家庭在資產(chǎn)選擇過程中具有偏好異質(zhì)性,也就是說,期望收益、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和偏好共同構(gòu)成居民家庭資產(chǎn)選擇的決定因素,將偏好因素納入資產(chǎn)選擇的研究,建立相應(yīng)的資產(chǎn)選擇模型就成為本章研究的重點(diǎn)。由于偏好無(wú)法直接識(shí)別,這里我們選取具有代表性實(shí)物資產(chǎn)中的房產(chǎn)和金融資產(chǎn)中的股票資產(chǎn),利用薩繆爾森提出的顯示性偏好理論,在不同的價(jià)格水平下依據(jù)我國(guó)居民家庭對(duì)商品房資產(chǎn)和股票資產(chǎn)的選擇組合推出無(wú)差異曲線方程,以此來(lái)解決資產(chǎn)選擇偏好的識(shí)別問題。它是我們進(jìn)一步研究的基礎(chǔ)與關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)。第四章我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)均衡分析。在以上理論模型基礎(chǔ)上,利用我國(guó)居民家庭資產(chǎn)選擇的無(wú)差異曲線推導(dǎo)出我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的需求函數(shù)。同時(shí),我們選取人均商品住房竣工面積q和平均房屋銷售價(jià)格p運(yùn)用面板模型構(gòu)建房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的供給函數(shù)。在市場(chǎng)出清條件下,令供給=需求可得到房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的均衡價(jià)格p’。均衡房?jī)r(jià)不僅是我們判斷房?jī)r(jià)合理性的基石,而且也是測(cè)度房?jī)r(jià)泡沫的基本依據(jù)。第五章我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)泡沫測(cè)度。依據(jù)上一章的均衡房?jī)r(jià),在考慮隨機(jī)沖擊的前提下來(lái)確定我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的合理價(jià)格,以此為判斷標(biāo)準(zhǔn),結(jié)合我國(guó)八個(gè)不同經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展程度區(qū)域的35個(gè)典型城市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),測(cè)算我國(guó)重要城市住房?jī)r(jià)格泡沫。并與現(xiàn)有研究的相關(guān)結(jié)論進(jìn)行了比較分析。研究表明：我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)泡沫確實(shí)存在,且泡沫程度差別較大,一線經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)城市存在較為嚴(yán)重的泡沫,西部等一些欠發(fā)達(dá)城市泡沫不明顯。一線城市泡沫的產(chǎn)生要早于二線城市,二線城市大多發(fā)生在2010以后,而且一線城市泡沫度也明顯高于二線城市,截止2010年大部分二線城市均產(chǎn)生了房?jī)r(jià)泡沫,我國(guó)的房?jī)r(jià)泡沫問題自此從局部轉(zhuǎn)向全局。
[Abstract]:Since the implementation of the housing reform policy since the last century in 90s, during the period of the planned economy of the welfare housing distribution system by the market gradually replaced, prices also began to play a fundamental role in the regulation of market supply and demand however, from the development of China's real estate market over the past twenty years, China's ordinary commercial housing prices basically maintained a rapid rising the rate is much higher than the income over the same period, the growth of residents, 1998-2013 years, China's ordinary commercial housing prices rose an average of 22.8.% years over the same period, per capita income of urban residents rose 9.6%, prices rose 2.5 times the people of all income. Thus, at the beginning of this century, in China triggered a discussion about the housing bubble most of the scholars. The housing price income ratio of the international comparison, the economic bubble model demonstrates that China's real estate bubble, and the housing bubble degree was calculated. With the existing Close the real estate bubble discussed in literature, in the process of determining reasonable price, completely ignores the preference factors of household assets. According to the preferences of family assets selection of Chinese residents in relation to the introduction of household assets in real estate choice preference factors, again to discuss the existence of China's housing bubble and measurement. The text is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is introduction. The background and significance of topics, the basic structure and the main research contents, research methods and innovation. It is the summary. The second chapter is the literature review. Combing the domestic and foreign assets and real estate bubble measure related to the field of academic research. The third chapter based on the assets preference heterogeneity of portfolio selection model. When we choose family assets ranging from pure financial assets extended to real assets, assets will highlight functional differences Out the functional differences between the household assets in the assets selection model in the process is not completely follow the expected return and risk, it means that households in assets with preference heterogeneity in the process, that is to say, the expected return, risk preference and constitute the determinants of household assets, will the preference factors included in the study of asset selection, the establishment of the corresponding portfolio selection model has become the focus of the study in this chapter. The preference can not be directly identified here, we select a representative of stock assets physical assets in real estate and financial assets, the revealed preference theory proposed by Samuelson, in the different price level launch selection based on the combination of China's households on housing assets and stock assets of the indifference curve equation, in order to solve the assets preference knowledge No problem. It is the foundation and the key link of our further research. The fourth chapter is the analysis of China's real estate market equilibrium. Based on the above theoretical model, the choice of our household assets no difference curve is deduced demand function of China's real estate market. At the same time, we selected the per capita housing completed in the area of Q and the average sales price of housing construction of P real estate market by using the panel model. The supply function of clearing in the market conditions, to supply = demand can be obtained in the real estate market equilibrium price. P 'equilibrium prices is not only we judge the price rationality foundation, and it is also the basis to measure the housing bubble. In the fifth chapter, the real estate market in China Bubble measure. Based on equilibrium prices in the previous chapter, considering the random shocks down to determine the reasonable price of the real estate market in China, as a criterion, combined with China's eight The relevant data of different degree of regional economic development of the 35 typical city real estate market, estimates China's important city housing price bubble. And with the relevant existing research conclusions are compared and analyzed. The study shows that China's real estate bubble does exist, and the bubble degree difference is large, there is a serious economic bubble line the developed city, western underdeveloped city bubble is not obvious. First-tier cities bubble earlier in the second tier city, second tier city mostly occurred in 2010, and first-tier cities bubble is significantly higher than the second tier cities, by the end of 2010, most of the second city had a housing bubble, the housing bubble in China since then from local to the overall.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 孫烽;資產(chǎn)選擇的兩難是我國(guó)當(dāng)前推行資產(chǎn)證券化的最大障礙[J];投資研究;2002年02期

2 鄒紅;喻開志;;家庭金融資產(chǎn)選擇:文獻(xiàn)述評(píng)與研究展望[J];金融理論與實(shí)踐;2008年09期

3 張海云;王聰;;中美家庭金融資產(chǎn)選擇行為的差異及其原因[J];浙江金融;2010年04期

4 王聰;張海云;;中美家庭金融資產(chǎn)選擇行為的差異及其原因分析[J];國(guó)際金融研究;2010年06期

5 馬力;;我國(guó)家庭金融資產(chǎn)選擇概況[J];中國(guó)證券期貨;2013年01期

6 劉克,吳江;資產(chǎn)選擇理論評(píng)介[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)動(dòng)態(tài);1994年09期

7 姜瑤英;資產(chǎn)選擇的理論與方法[J];投資理論與實(shí)踐;1995年09期

8 程啟智;現(xiàn)代資產(chǎn)選擇理論及其對(duì)我國(guó)改革的啟示[J];投資研究;1996年02期

9 連建輝;幾種現(xiàn)代資產(chǎn)選擇理論的對(duì)比分析[J];福建論壇(經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)版);1997年09期

10 崔春;國(guó)外經(jīng)濟(jì)金融理論專題介紹(之三) 資產(chǎn)選擇理論[J];中國(guó)城市金融;1998年03期

相關(guān)重要報(bào)紙文章 前8條

1 宜信財(cái)富首席財(cái)富管理專家 呂騏;企業(yè)主應(yīng)根據(jù)個(gè)人資產(chǎn)選擇財(cái)富管理機(jī)構(gòu)[N];中國(guó)經(jīng)營(yíng)報(bào);2013年

2 申銀萬(wàn)國(guó)證券研究所 徐妍;應(yīng)對(duì)通脹轉(zhuǎn)化下的資產(chǎn)選擇[N];中國(guó)證券報(bào);2005年

3 佳文;“老外”：錢不要存銀行[N];中國(guó)財(cái)經(jīng)報(bào);2000年

4 青島安信 李群 苗建偉 粟青 萬(wàn)凱;2004股市劍指2150[N];證券日?qǐng)?bào);2004年

5 國(guó)際理財(cái)規(guī)劃師CFP 證券分析師CSIA 邱思甥;該買進(jìn)歐元了嗎？[N];上海證券報(bào);2012年

6 本報(bào)記者 朱茵;中銀國(guó)際：應(yīng)重視資產(chǎn)選擇等問題[N];中國(guó)證券報(bào);2010年

7 本報(bào)記者　　王軍;債券基金面臨規(guī)模擴(kuò)張機(jī)遇[N];中國(guó)證券報(bào);2006年

8 苗建偉;年底前建好倉(cāng)[N];中國(guó)證券報(bào);2003年

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前7條

1 趙翠霞;城郊失地農(nóng)民的家庭資產(chǎn)選擇[D];沈陽(yáng)農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué);2015年

2 于蓉;我國(guó)家庭金融資產(chǎn)選擇行為研究[D];暨南大學(xué);2006年

3 邢大偉;居民家庭資產(chǎn)選擇研究[D];蘇州大學(xué);2009年

4 莫驕;人口老齡化背景下的家庭金融資產(chǎn)選擇[D];南開大學(xué);2014年

5 張海云;我國(guó)家庭金融資產(chǎn)選擇行為及財(cái)富分配效應(yīng)[D];暨南大學(xué);2010年

6 高恩輝;資產(chǎn)選擇、房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)與金融穩(wěn)定[D];南開大學(xué);2009年

7 溫琪;金融市場(chǎng)資產(chǎn)選擇與配置策略研究[D];中國(guó)科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué);2011年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前10條

1 王t，

本文編號(hào)：1406983