本文關(guān)鍵詞：山東省城鎮(zhèn)居民住房支付能力研究　出處：《青島理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 城鎮(zhèn)居民 住房支付能力 區(qū)域差異 影響因素 山東省

【摘要】：本文研究了山東省城鎮(zhèn)居民對(duì)新建商品住房的支付能力。首先通過文獻(xiàn)綜述了解國(guó)內(nèi)外住房支付能力研究現(xiàn)狀，分析衡量住房支付能力常用指標(biāo)及適用范圍。然后從供需狀況上對(duì)山東省住宅市場(chǎng)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀與存在的問題進(jìn)行探討。最后采用定性與定量相結(jié)合的方法對(duì)山東省城鎮(zhèn)居民住房支付能力進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。 采用合適的衡量指標(biāo)從歷史變動(dòng)、社會(huì)差距、區(qū)域差異三個(gè)角度對(duì)山東省城鎮(zhèn)居民的住房支付能力進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)分析，并通過PIR計(jì)量模型簡(jiǎn)單預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)5年內(nèi)城鎮(zhèn)居民住房支付能力的變化趨勢(shì)。結(jié)果表明：（1）根據(jù)PIR和HAI指標(biāo)的測(cè)算，從整體上來(lái)看，山東省城鎮(zhèn)居民住房支付能力高于全國(guó)平均水平，具備一定的購(gòu)房能力；（2）采用靜態(tài)PIR、動(dòng)態(tài)PIR和剩余收入法全面分析住房支付能力存在的社會(huì)差距，綜合結(jié)果得出不同收入戶間住房支付能力差距懸殊：高收入戶及最高收入戶支付能力很強(qiáng)，可以購(gòu)買市場(chǎng)上提供的任何新建類型住宅；較高收入戶對(duì)70m2、90m2的套房面積有支付能力；中間及較低收入戶可以借助金融工具購(gòu)買70m2的新建商品住宅；最低及低收入戶基本上不具備購(gòu)買市場(chǎng)上新建商品住宅的能力。（3）通過計(jì)算PIR，各城市居民住房支付能力存在較大差異，，大體上呈現(xiàn)中西部地區(qū)住房支付能力最好，其次是沿海城市，再次是濟(jì)南、青島。（4）未來(lái)5年內(nèi)房?jī)r(jià)漲幅若控制在居民收入增長(zhǎng)速度之內(nèi)，居民將具備較好的住房支付能力。 考慮到住房支付能力影響因素的復(fù)雜性，運(yùn)用因子分析法建立在綜合影響因素下山東省城鎮(zhèn)居民住房支付能力區(qū)域差異的計(jì)量評(píng)價(jià)模型。結(jié)果表明，各地區(qū)住房支付能力綜合排名與衡量指標(biāo)測(cè)算的結(jié)果大體相一致，因子得分排名則反映了不同地區(qū)受各因子影響程度不同，要根據(jù)具體情況進(jìn)一步落實(shí)區(qū)域差異化的房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控。 最后，文章結(jié)合影響山東省城鎮(zhèn)居民住房支付能力的因素提出了增加住房供給；完善住房供應(yīng)體系；穩(wěn)定住房?jī)r(jià)格，增加城鎮(zhèn)居民收入；規(guī)范使用金融工具等建議。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the urban residents in Shandong Province, the ability to pay for new housing. First understand the research status at home and abroad the ability to pay the housing through literature review, analysis and measure of housing affordability index and applicable scope. Then from the supply and demand situation of Shandong Province, the residential market development present situation and the existing problems are discussed. Finally, the method of qualitative analysis and the combination of quantitative empirical analysis of Shandong province urban residents housing affordability.
The appropriate measure from the historical changes, social gap, three aspects of the regional differences of Shandong province housing affordability of urban residents are analyzed, and the changing trend of PIR simple econometric model to predict the future 5 years of urban residents housing affordability. The results showed that: (1) according to PIR and HAI index, on the whole, housing affordability of urban residents in Shandong province is higher than the national average, have a certain ability to purchase; (2) using static PIR, overall analysis of the existing housing affordability of social gap between dynamic PIR and residual income method, the comprehensive results of different income housing affordability gap between households and high-income households. The highest income households pay ability is very strong, can any new types of residential purchase on the market; the higher income households on the 70m2,90m2 suite area have the ability to pay; and between low New residential income households can buy with financial instruments 70m2; minimum and low income households basically do not have on the market to buy new residential capacity. (3) through the calculation of PIR, the city residents housing affordability has great differences, generally presents the Midwest housing affordability is best, followed by the coastal city. Once again, Ji'nan, Qingdao. (4) the next 5 years if prices rose in control of income growth, residents will have better housing affordability.
Considering the complexity of the factors affecting the housing affordability, using the factor analysis method based on comprehensive influencing factors of urban residents in Shandong province to pay housing measurement ability evaluation of regional differences in the model. The results show that the areas of housing payment ability and comprehensive ranking index estimates are consistent in general, factor score rankings reflect different affected areas the degree of each factor is different to the real estate regulation according to the specific circumstances of the further implementation of regional differences.
Finally, combined with the factors that influence the housing payment capacity of urban residents in Shandong Province, the article puts forward suggestions to increase housing supply, improve housing supply system, stabilize housing prices, increase urban residents' income, and standardize the use of financial instruments.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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