本文關(guān)鍵詞：商品房客戶購(gòu)房需求預(yù)測(cè)應(yīng)用研究　出處：《廣西大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：隨著房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)宏微觀環(huán)境的變化,房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)發(fā)展環(huán)境變得更為殘酷和嚴(yán)峻,其營(yíng)銷實(shí)踐難度加大,這使得房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)迫切需要加強(qiáng)對(duì)客戶購(gòu)房需求預(yù)測(cè)研究,提高精準(zhǔn)營(yíng)銷能力。此外,客戶為購(gòu)買到滿意商品房需要付出大量時(shí)間精力。再者,當(dāng)前有關(guān)支持商品房客戶需求預(yù)測(cè)和客戶為購(gòu)買商品房需求而采取哪些行為方面的研究理論比較欠缺。因此,有必要對(duì)商品房客戶購(gòu)房需求預(yù)測(cè)進(jìn)行理論應(yīng)用研究。 本文結(jié)合客戶購(gòu)買決策模型和商品房客戶購(gòu)房實(shí)際情況,構(gòu)建商品房客戶購(gòu)買決策一般模型,并將購(gòu)房決策過程劃分為購(gòu)房需求喚起階段、購(gòu)房選擇評(píng)價(jià)階段、正式購(gòu)房階段;分析購(gòu)房需求行為特性和影響客戶購(gòu)房需求產(chǎn)生的客戶屬性因素,通過建立購(gòu)房需求行為進(jìn)行階段一般模型對(duì)購(gòu)房需求行為進(jìn)行分析。之后,結(jié)合選取原則和商品房市場(chǎng)實(shí)際情況,構(gòu)建客戶購(gòu)房需求預(yù)測(cè)指標(biāo)體系,并將這些指標(biāo)分為兩類：一、年齡、婚姻家庭狀況、家庭經(jīng)濟(jì)收入水平、職業(yè)與教育情況、現(xiàn)有住房情況等商品房客戶屬性；二、電話咨詢購(gòu)房信息、網(wǎng)絡(luò)搜尋樓盤房屋信息、實(shí)地考察樓盤房屋(含實(shí)際參觀樣板房)、參與房展會(huì)、房交會(huì)等類似活動(dòng)等客戶購(gòu)房需求行為特征。接著,建立商品房客戶購(gòu)房需求預(yù)測(cè)模型,確定模型指標(biāo)評(píng)分值和利用AHP法確定模型指標(biāo)權(quán)重,客戶購(gòu)房需求預(yù)測(cè)綜合評(píng)價(jià)指數(shù)的評(píng)價(jià)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。本文在應(yīng)用研究中,選取觀測(cè)樣本客戶和預(yù)測(cè)應(yīng)用樣本,對(duì)觀測(cè)樣本客戶屬性和購(gòu)房需求行為記錄量化,計(jì)算客戶購(gòu)房需求預(yù)測(cè)綜合評(píng)價(jià)指數(shù),并進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,得到客戶是否屬于重點(diǎn)營(yíng)銷客戶組別的判別函數(shù),并認(rèn)為商品房客戶購(gòu)房需求預(yù)測(cè)模型具有較高準(zhǔn)確性和應(yīng)用價(jià)值。之后,利用模型對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)樣本進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)應(yīng)用研究分析,并為提高房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)精準(zhǔn)營(yíng)銷能力提供一些建議,以供其參考。
[Abstract]:With the change of macro and micro environment of real estate market, the development environment of real estate enterprises becomes more cruel and severe, and its marketing practice becomes more difficult. This makes the real estate enterprises urgently need to strengthen the research on the demand forecast of the customer purchase, improve the precision marketing ability. In addition, the customers need to pay a lot of time and energy to buy the satisfied commercial housing. The current research theory about supporting the demand forecast of the commercial housing customers and the behavior that the customers take to purchase the commercial housing demand is relatively lacking. It is necessary to apply the theory to forecast the demand of commercial housing customers. In this paper, combined with the customer purchase decision-making model and the actual situation of the purchase of commercial housing customers, the general model of purchase decision-making is constructed, and the purchase decision-making process is divided into the stage of house purchase demand arousal. The stage of choosing and evaluating the purchase of the house, and the stage of the formal purchase of the house; This paper analyzes the characteristics of housing demand behavior and the factors affecting the customer demand for housing, and then analyzes the behavior of housing demand through the establishment of a general model of housing demand behavior. Combining with the selection principle and the actual situation of the commercial housing market, this paper constructs the forecast index system of the customer's housing demand, and divides these indicators into two categories: first, age, marriage and family status, family income level. Occupation and education, existing housing and other commercial housing customer attributes; Second, the telephone consultation purchase information, the network searches for the housing information, the field inspection real estate house (including the actual visit model house, participate in the house exhibition, the house fair and so on similar activities and so on customer purchase demand behavior characteristic.). In this paper, the author establishes the forecast model of the commercial housing customer's demand for housing, determines the scoring value of the model index, and uses AHP method to determine the weight of the model index and the evaluation standard of the comprehensive evaluation index of the customer's house purchase demand forecast. Select the observation sample customer and forecast application sample, quantify the observation sample customer attribute and the purchase demand behavior record, calculate the comprehensive evaluation index of the customer purchase demand forecast, and carry on the statistical analysis. Get whether the customer belongs to the key marketing customer group discriminant function, and think that the commercial housing customer demand prediction model has a high accuracy and application value. The model is used to study and analyze the forecast samples, and some suggestions for improving the precision marketing ability of real estate enterprises are provided for their reference.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F224

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