本文選題：跨境電商 + 跨境電商物流�。� 參考：《山西大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：跨境電商作為一種新型的對(duì)外貿(mào)易形式,在我國(guó)進(jìn)出口市場(chǎng)相對(duì)疲軟的環(huán)境下,表現(xiàn)出強(qiáng)大的活力。近兩年我國(guó)進(jìn)出口總額出現(xiàn)一定程度的下滑,而跨境電商的交易規(guī)模卻在節(jié)節(jié)攀升�！耙粠б宦贰薄白杂少Q(mào)易試驗(yàn)區(qū)”“跨境電商綜合實(shí)驗(yàn)區(qū)”等一系列國(guó)家宏觀戰(zhàn)略的提出,對(duì)于我國(guó)跨境貿(mào)易的發(fā)展奠定了扎實(shí)的政策基礎(chǔ),同時(shí)也規(guī)范了行業(yè)發(fā)展。在跨境電商行業(yè)發(fā)展勢(shì)頭兇猛的環(huán)境下,跨境物流作為跨境電商運(yùn)營(yíng)過(guò)程中不可或缺的重要環(huán)節(jié),其發(fā)展?fàn)顟B(tài)受到多方關(guān)注�？缇澄锪饔捎谶\(yùn)輸距離長(zhǎng),海關(guān)參與等諸多因素限制了其發(fā)展,因此展開跨境物流相關(guān)研究顯得尤為必要。對(duì)于跨境物流市場(chǎng)規(guī)模的預(yù)測(cè)有助于更有效地整合物流資源,制定物流發(fā)展規(guī)劃。由于目前關(guān)于跨境物流實(shí)證研究的相關(guān)資料較少,因此本文首先對(duì)我國(guó)跨境電商市場(chǎng)規(guī)模進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)研究,結(jié)合跨境B2C上市公司唯品會(huì)和亞馬遜的相關(guān)財(cái)報(bào),確定履約成本占營(yíng)業(yè)額的比例范圍,從而完成物流規(guī)模的預(yù)測(cè)。在跨境電商規(guī)模預(yù)測(cè)部分,結(jié)合行業(yè)發(fā)展歷程及現(xiàn)狀,參考相關(guān)研究文獻(xiàn),從經(jīng)濟(jì)總量,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),國(guó)內(nèi)外貿(mào)易,網(wǎng)購(gòu)發(fā)展,人民生活和快遞發(fā)展六部分設(shè)立指標(biāo)體系,參照指標(biāo)的選取原則初步設(shè)立11項(xiàng)指標(biāo)。通過(guò)灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析,剔除3項(xiàng)低關(guān)聯(lián)度指標(biāo)。在預(yù)測(cè)方法選擇部分,在對(duì)各種預(yù)測(cè)方法進(jìn)行綜述的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合研究對(duì)象確定多元回歸和灰色預(yù)測(cè)方法。實(shí)證分析階段,利用SPSS和MATLAB,基于原始數(shù)據(jù)建立相關(guān)預(yù)測(cè)模型,并對(duì)所建立的模型進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),確保預(yù)測(cè)精度。基于兩種模型的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果采用綜合集成法完成集成預(yù)測(cè),預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果顯示,至2020年我國(guó)跨境電商市場(chǎng)規(guī)模將達(dá)到10.61024萬(wàn)億元。根據(jù)唯品會(huì)和亞馬遜財(cái)報(bào)分析,判定物流成本約占市場(chǎng)規(guī)模的比例約為10%~15%�；诖苏J(rèn)為我國(guó)跨境電商物流的市場(chǎng)規(guī)模至2020年將達(dá)到1萬(wàn)億元與1.6萬(wàn)億元之間。
[Abstract]:As a new type of foreign trade, cross-border e-commerce shows strong vitality in the weak environment of China's import and export market. In the past two years, China's import and export volume has declined to a certain extent, while the scale of cross-border e-commerce transactions has been rising. A series of national macro strategies, such as "Belt and Road", "Free Trade Experimental Zone" and "Cross-border Electronic Commerce Comprehensive Experimental Zone", have laid a solid policy foundation for the development of cross-border trade in China and standardized the development of the industry at the same time. In the environment of fierce development of cross-border e-commerce industry, cross-border logistics as an indispensable part of cross-border e-commerce operation process, its development state has been paid more attention. The development of cross-border logistics is restricted by many factors, such as long transportation distance, customs participation and so on, so it is particularly necessary to carry out research on cross-border logistics. Forecasting the scale of cross-border logistics market is helpful to integrate logistics resources more effectively and formulate logistics development plan. Because of the lack of relevant information about the empirical research on cross-border logistics, this paper first studies the scale of cross-border e-commerce market in China, combined with the cross-border B2C listed company VIPSHOP and Amazon related financial reports. Determine the proportion of performance cost to turnover to achieve logistics scale prediction. In the forecasting part of cross-border e-commerce scale, combined with the development history and current situation of the industry, and referring to the relevant research literature, the paper sets up an index system from six parts of economic aggregate, industrial structure, domestic and foreign trade, online shopping development, people's life and express delivery development. According to the selection principle of indicators, 11 indexes were preliminarily established. Through the analysis of grey correlation degree, three indexes of low correlation degree are eliminated. In the part of selecting forecasting methods, on the basis of summarizing various forecasting methods, the multiple regression and grey prediction methods are determined by combining the research object. In the stage of empirical analysis, SPSS and MATLAB are used to establish the relevant prediction model based on the original data, and to verify the established model to ensure the prediction accuracy. The prediction results based on the two models adopt the integrated method to complete the integrated prediction. The prediction results show that the scale of cross-border e-commerce market in China will reach 10.61024 trillion yuan by 2020. According to VIPSHOP and Amazon earnings analysis, judging logistics costs as a proportion of the market size is about 100.15%. Based on this, the market scale of cross-border e-commerce logistics in China will reach between 1 trillion yuan and 1.6 trillion yuan by 2020.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F724.6;F259.2

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