【摘要】：隨著人口老齡化進(jìn)程的加快,養(yǎng)老保險基金缺口問題成為國際性難題。我國城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工養(yǎng)老保險基金也存在巨大的隱形債務(wù)。泉州市作為福建省三大中心城市之一,有較好的經(jīng)濟基礎(chǔ),目前城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工養(yǎng)老保險基金收支情況良好,但人口老齡化進(jìn)程的加快使泉州市城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工養(yǎng)老保險基金未來也面臨巨大的缺口,在全省統(tǒng)籌“核定基數(shù)、定額繳撥、超收分成、超支共擔(dān)”的管理機制下,城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工養(yǎng)老保險基金長期收不抵支將對本級財政造成極大的負(fù)擔(dān)。同時,近年來泉州市城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工養(yǎng)老保險基金收支結(jié)余上繳數(shù)占全省(廈門經(jīng)濟特區(qū)除外)總數(shù)的50%以上,調(diào)劑彌補了部分市縣城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工養(yǎng)老保險的收支缺口,泉州市城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工養(yǎng)老保險基金一旦陷入收支缺口,將嚴(yán)重影響全省城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工養(yǎng)老保險基金的償付能力。因此,研究泉州市城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工養(yǎng)老保險基金缺口很有必要。本文從泉州市城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工養(yǎng)老保險統(tǒng)籌賬戶和個人賬戶兩個方面入手,分別進(jìn)行了研究分析。在專家的測算理論基礎(chǔ)上,對勞動力、參保率、城鎮(zhèn)化率、人口預(yù)期壽命等變量一一假設(shè),并通過泉州市實際數(shù)據(jù)對相關(guān)變量假設(shè)進(jìn)行調(diào)整,構(gòu)建了適合的泉州市城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工養(yǎng)老保險需求和供給模型,以此測算泉州市城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工養(yǎng)老保險基金未來的收支缺口情況。本文通過研究得出,在現(xiàn)行的退休制度和養(yǎng)老保險制度基礎(chǔ)上,泉州市城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工養(yǎng)老保險基金自2023年起收不抵支,且養(yǎng)老保險基金缺口規(guī)模逐年增加,給本級財政造成巨大負(fù)擔(dān)。轉(zhuǎn)制成本、隱性債務(wù)、人口老齡化、退休制度與養(yǎng)老保險制度風(fēng)險等是泉州市城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工養(yǎng)老保險形成收支缺口的主要原因。以市級管理的視角出發(fā),泉州市可以從減少養(yǎng)老保險金冒領(lǐng)損失、擴大養(yǎng)老保險覆蓋面、發(fā)展生育和養(yǎng)老相關(guān)配套設(shè)施方面來彌補城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工養(yǎng)老保險基金缺口。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the aging of the population, the pension fund gap has become an international problem. There is also a huge invisible debt in the pension fund for the employees of urban enterprises in China. Quanzhou, as one of the three central cities in Fujian Province, has a good economic base. At present, the income and expenditure of pension insurance funds for employees in urban enterprises are good. However, with the acceleration of the aging process of the population, the pension insurance fund for employees of urban enterprises in Quanzhou also faces a huge gap in the future. Under the management mechanism of "checking and approving the base number, paying the quota, overpaying the income and sharing the expenses" in the province as a whole, The long-term inadequacy of the pension insurance fund of urban enterprises will cause a great burden on this level of finance. At the same time, in recent years, the balance of income and expenditure of employees' pension insurance fund of urban enterprises in Quanzhou City accounted for more than 50% of the total of the whole province (except Xiamen Special Economic Zone), and the adjustment made up for the gap in income and expenditure of pension insurance for employees in some urban and county enterprises. Once the pension insurance fund of the urban enterprises in Quanzhou falls into the gap of income and expenditure, it will seriously affect the solvency of the pension insurance fund of the urban enterprises in the whole province. Therefore, it is necessary to study the pension fund gap of urban enterprises in Quanzhou. This article from Quanzhou city enterprise worker endowment insurance overall plan account and the individual account two aspects, has carried on the research and the analysis separately. On the basis of the calculation theory of experts, this paper assumes one by one the variables of labor force, participation rate, urbanization rate, life expectancy of population, etc., and adjusts the hypothesis of relevant variables through actual data of Quanzhou City. This paper constructs a suitable demand and supply model of pension insurance for employees in urban enterprises in Quanzhou, so as to calculate the gap of income and expenditure of pension fund for employees in urban enterprises in Quanzhou in the future. On the basis of the current retirement system and the old-age insurance system, the pension fund of the urban enterprises in Quanzhou has been under-paid since 2023, and the gap of the pension fund has been increasing year by year. Put a huge burden on the finances at this level. Conversion cost, implicit debt, aging population, retirement system and pension insurance system risk are the main reasons for the gap in income and expenditure of pension insurance for employees in urban enterprises in Quanzhou. From the perspective of municipal management, Quanzhou city can make up for the gap of pension insurance fund in urban enterprises by reducing the loss of pension insurance, expanding the coverage of old-age insurance, and developing the related facilities of fertility and old-age support in order to make up for the gap of pension insurance fund of employees in urban enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F842.67

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