【摘要】：美國(guó)著名銀行專(zhuān)家保羅·希爾曾經(jīng)說(shuō)過(guò)：“投資是保險(xiǎn)行業(yè)的核心業(yè)務(wù),沒(méi)有投資便沒(méi)有保險(xiǎn)業(yè)。”在經(jīng)濟(jì)多元化的今天,保險(xiǎn)業(yè)早已成為集融資、補(bǔ)償、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理為一身的綜合性金融體系。以承保業(yè)務(wù)為主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)的時(shí)代早已過(guò)去,現(xiàn)在的保險(xiǎn)行業(yè)只有發(fā)展壯大投資業(yè)務(wù)才能立足。而能否進(jìn)行投資方式的優(yōu)化就成為影響保險(xiǎn)公司收益的主要因素,如何在單位投資資金內(nèi)增加收益,如何管理控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)成為當(dāng)今熱點(diǎn)研究問(wèn)題。目前,我國(guó)保險(xiǎn)業(yè)整體發(fā)展緩慢原因有二：一是投資環(huán)境管理混亂；二是保險(xiǎn)公司自身風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理水平較低。我國(guó)《保險(xiǎn)法》頒布之前,保險(xiǎn)公司片面追求利潤(rùn)率,導(dǎo)致盲目跟風(fēng)投資,非但沒(méi)為企業(yè)帶來(lái)盈利,反而帶來(lái)巨大虧損和不良資產(chǎn)。《保險(xiǎn)法》的出臺(tái)限制了企業(yè)的投資范圍和投資渠道,尤其是對(duì)無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資組合做了明確規(guī)定。隨著我國(guó)投資市場(chǎng)的逐步規(guī)范、相關(guān)機(jī)制的逐步健全,保險(xiǎn)監(jiān)管者必然采取拓寬資金渠道、豐富投資組合方式的政策。放松投資管制后,投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理能力將成為決定保險(xiǎn)業(yè)企業(yè)總體收益與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的關(guān)鍵因素。 以往大多數(shù)針對(duì)保險(xiǎn)投資的研究著眼于證券投資組合優(yōu)化等,而對(duì)于投資企業(yè)(或者項(xiàng)目)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)研究較少。至今為止,并沒(méi)有權(quán)威和統(tǒng)一的保險(xiǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)體系和規(guī)范。因此,本文結(jié)合保險(xiǎn)業(yè)實(shí)際投資的特點(diǎn),結(jié)合投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的目標(biāo),在系統(tǒng)全面性和可操作性的指導(dǎo)原則下,設(shè)計(jì)出保險(xiǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,體系共包括4個(gè)Ⅰ級(jí)指標(biāo),12個(gè)Ⅱ級(jí)指標(biāo),以及41個(gè)Ⅲ級(jí)指標(biāo)。在設(shè)計(jì)保險(xiǎn)投資的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系的基礎(chǔ)上,根據(jù)模糊層次方法(FAHP),結(jié)合德?tīng)柗品ê蛯?zhuān)家打分法,得出模糊判斷互補(bǔ)矩陣,進(jìn)而確定出保險(xiǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ級(jí)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重大小,并確定出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的隸屬度,最終建立起基于FAHP保險(xiǎn)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型。本文為了驗(yàn)證投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型的有效性,選擇X保險(xiǎn)集團(tuán)對(duì)H紡織公司的投資作為對(duì)象,結(jié)合H公司的企業(yè)基本情況和財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù),確定出投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)評(píng)價(jià)的結(jié)果以及關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所在。
[Abstract]:Paul Hill, a prominent U.S. banking expert, once said: "Investment is the core business of the insurance industry. Without investment, there is no insurance industry." In today's diversified economy, the insurance industry has become a comprehensive financial system with financing, compensation and risk management. The era of underwriting business as the main business has long passed, now the insurance industry can only be based on the development of investment business. Whether the investment mode can be optimized becomes the main factor that affects the income of insurance company. How to increase the income in the unit investment fund and how to manage and control the risk has become a hot research issue. At present, there are two reasons for the slow development of the insurance industry in our country: one is the confusion of the investment environment management, the other is the low level of risk management of the insurance companies themselves. Before the promulgation of our country's Insurance Law, insurance companies pursued profit margins one-sidedly, resulting in blindly following the trend of investment, not only did they not bring profits to enterprises, On the contrary, it brings huge losses and bad assets. The introduction of "Insurance Law" limits the investment scope and investment channels of enterprises, especially for the risk-free investment portfolio. With the gradual standardization of China's investment market and the gradual improvement of relevant mechanisms, insurance regulators must adopt the policy of widening the capital channels and enriching the investment portfolio. After deregulation of investment, investment risk management ability will become the key factor to determine the overall income and competitiveness of insurance enterprises. In the past, most of the research on insurance investment focused on portfolio optimization, but less on risk evaluation of investment enterprises (or projects). So far, there is no authoritative and unified insurance investment risk evaluation system and norms. Therefore, according to the characteristics of insurance industry investment and the target of investment risk evaluation, under the guiding principle of system comprehensiveness and maneuverability, an index system of insurance investment risk evaluation is designed. There were 12 grade 鈪，

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