【摘要】：西方國(guó)家接連爆發(fā)的債務(wù)危機(jī)凸顯了老齡化社會(huì)下巨額養(yǎng)老金負(fù)擔(dān)對(duì)于財(cái)政穩(wěn)定性的不利影響,我國(guó)日趨嚴(yán)重的老齡化趨勢(shì)以及養(yǎng)老保障政策轉(zhuǎn)軌的不徹底性必將給財(cái)政穩(wěn)定性帶來(lái)負(fù)面影響。本文通過(guò)構(gòu)建基于老齡化影響的財(cái)政穩(wěn)定性模型,實(shí)證分析未來(lái)我國(guó)財(cái)政的穩(wěn)定性。分析結(jié)果表明:2009年實(shí)施的"新農(nóng)保"政策對(duì)未來(lái)財(cái)政穩(wěn)定性的影響不顯著;養(yǎng)老保障政策轉(zhuǎn)軌不徹底性使我國(guó)財(cái)政面臨長(zhǎng)期不穩(wěn)定性。針對(duì)此,本文提出應(yīng)加快機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位養(yǎng)老改革進(jìn)程、通過(guò)多種方式補(bǔ)充空賬以及增加資本市場(chǎng)投資以提高養(yǎng)老金收益等建議。
[Abstract]:The successive debt crises in western countries have highlighted the negative impact of the huge pension burden on fiscal stability in an aging society. The trend of aging and the inthoroughness of pension policy will bring negative influence to the financial stability in China. Based on the model of financial stability based on aging, this paper empirically analyzes the future financial stability of China. The results show that the "New Rural Insurance" policy implemented in 2009 has no significant impact on the future financial stability, and that the transition of the old-age security policy makes our country's finance face long-term instability. In view of this, this paper puts forward some suggestions, such as speeding up the process of pension reform in institutions, replenishing empty accounts in various ways and increasing capital market investment in order to increase pension returns.
【作者單位】： 吉林大學(xué)數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中心;吉林大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【基金】：教育部人文社會(huì)科學(xué)研究項(xiàng)目(11YJA790117) 國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目(12AZD021) 吉林省社會(huì)科學(xué)規(guī)劃基金資助項(xiàng)目(2012B05)
【分類號(hào)】：F842.6;F812;F224

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本文編號(hào)：2351657