【摘要】：基于內生人力資本假設,構建公共養(yǎng)老金支出模型,探討宏觀經濟因素和人口因素對公共養(yǎng)老金支出的影響,進而運用1996~2015年我國面板數據對養(yǎng)老金支出變化進行實證檢驗。有效退休年齡延長和總和生育率上升將減少與年齡有關的養(yǎng)老金支出可持續(xù)性。盡管較高的養(yǎng)老金凈替代率會減輕老年貧困風險,但是會進一步增加公共養(yǎng)老金財務可持續(xù)壓力。延長有效退休年齡、提高總和生育率和大力發(fā)展多支柱養(yǎng)老保障制度是老齡社會改善公共養(yǎng)老保險財務可持續(xù)壓力的重要途徑。
[Abstract]:Based on the assumption of endogenous human capital, this paper constructs a public pension expenditure model, probes into the influence of macroeconomic and demographic factors on public pension expenditure, and then makes an empirical test on the change of pension expenditure by using panel data from 1996 to 2015 in China. An increase in the effective retirement age and an increase in the total fertility rate will reduce the sustainability of age-related pension spending. While a higher net pension replacement rate would reduce the risk of old age poverty, it would further increase the financial sustainability of public pensions. Prolonging the effective retirement age, increasing the total fertility rate and vigorously developing the multi-pillar old-age security system are the important ways for the aging society to improve the financial sustainability of public pension insurance.
【作者單位】： 黑龍江大學經濟與工商管理學院;
【基金】：國家社科基金項目“生育率下降與預期壽命延長雙重約束下養(yǎng)老保險制度可持續(xù)性研究”(編號:16BRK016) 教育部人文社會科學青年基金項目“人口老齡化和城市化雙重約束下養(yǎng)老保險體系可持續(xù)性研究”(編號:15YJC840037)
【分類號】：C924.24;F842.67

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