【摘要】：基于2009-2011年保險公司在各個地區(qū)經(jīng)營交強險業(yè)務(wù)的實際數(shù)據(jù),本文分析了當前的交強險保費水平在不同業(yè)務(wù)類型和不同地區(qū)之間存在的不公平性問題。通過賠付率和費用率的相關(guān)性分析,揭示了交強險費用率的異常變化和可能受到的人為干預(yù)。定義和計算了交強險的業(yè)務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)因子、地區(qū)分布因子、固定業(yè)務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)的風(fēng)險選擇因子和固定地區(qū)分布的風(fēng)險選擇因子,對保險公司在交強險市場上的競爭能力和風(fēng)險選擇能力進行了比較分析。最后通過建立賠付率和費用率的廣義線性模型,發(fā)現(xiàn)保險公司降低交強險賠付率最為有效的途徑是提高它在各個地區(qū)的風(fēng)險選擇能力,其次是增加在低風(fēng)險地區(qū)的經(jīng)營網(wǎng)點。
[Abstract]:Based on the actual data of insurance companies operating in various regions in 2009-2011, this paper analyzes the unfairness of the current premium level of traffic insurance in different business types and different regions. Through the analysis of the correlation between the compensation rate and the cost rate, the abnormal changes of the cost rate of traffic insurance and the possible human intervention are revealed. The business structure factor, regional distribution factor, risk selection factor of fixed business structure and risk selection factor of fixed area distribution are defined and calculated. This paper compares the competitive ability and risk selection ability of insurance companies in the traffic insurance market. Finally, by establishing a generalized linear model of compensation rate and cost rate, it is found that the most effective way for insurance companies to reduce the loss rate of traffic strong insurance is to improve their risk selection ability in each region, and then to increase the operating network in low-risk areas.
【作者單位】： 中國人民大學(xué)應(yīng)用統(tǒng)計科學(xué)研究中心;中國人民大學(xué)統(tǒng)計學(xué)院;
【基金】：教育部重點研究基地重大項目“隨機效應(yīng)模型及其在非壽險風(fēng)險管理中的應(yīng)用”(12JJD790025) 國家自然科學(xué)基金項目“考慮風(fēng)險相依的非壽險精算模型研究”(71171193)資助
【分類號】：F842

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

1 孟生旺;;交強險的經(jīng)營結(jié)果和費率結(jié)構(gòu)分析[J];統(tǒng)計研究;2008年04期

2 孟生旺;李v，

本文編號：2291281