發(fā)布時間：2018-10-12 10:53

【摘要】：為確保我國經(jīng)濟快速穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展,審計機關應充分發(fā)揮其職能,這就要求審計機關要善于預測、識別、化解經(jīng)濟風險,建立對審計風險意識的預測,從錯綜復雜的問題中找出對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展產(chǎn)生主要影響的因素與問題,并將反饋信息及時報告給國家有關部門,提出政策性審計的建議。這些都是基于審計數(shù)據(jù)展開的,但是,目前的現(xiàn)狀是對審計數(shù)據(jù)的提取需要耗費大量人力、物力、時間,得到的數(shù)據(jù)有的還具有一定的保密性、異構(gòu)性,并不能被審計人員很好的利用,這使得有些審計業(yè)務很難開展,為此,需要構(gòu)建一個仿真數(shù)據(jù)庫。本文的研究內(nèi)容主要針對社會保險領域中的養(yǎng)老保險,基于養(yǎng)老保險行業(yè)國家標準庫中的9張表153字段分析出養(yǎng)老保險行業(yè)表之間、字段之間的相互關系,并通過對真實數(shù)據(jù)的處理、擬合,利用蒙特卡羅方法生成6張數(shù)據(jù)表中50個字段的仿真數(shù)據(jù),并將仿真數(shù)據(jù)與真實數(shù)據(jù)進行相似性檢驗,生成的仿真數(shù)據(jù)與真實數(shù)據(jù)符合程度極高;同時,由于政府制定的政策會對社會的個體行為產(chǎn)生很大的影響,從而導致仿真數(shù)據(jù)與真實數(shù)據(jù)的偏差過大。因此,在研究仿真數(shù)據(jù)的同時,也應該關注相應的政策制度,將政策仿真與數(shù)據(jù)仿真相結(jié)合,使得仿真數(shù)據(jù)根據(jù)政策進行自動調(diào)整。對社會保險參保繳費行為進行分析,利用經(jīng)典博弈模型分析繳費行為中各個參與人的博弈關系,并采用博弈演化的思想,提出一個基于進化博弈的參保繳費行為模型,并分析了該模型下不同政策參數(shù)對個體繳費行為以及社保機構(gòu)的影響;最后,以此模型為基礎對養(yǎng)老金繳費基數(shù)生成能夠根據(jù)政策的變化進行自我調(diào)整的、具有一定自適應性的仿真數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)建完整的仿真數(shù)據(jù)庫。
[Abstract]:In order to ensure the rapid and stable development of our country's economy, audit institutions should give full play to their functions, which requires them to be good at forecasting, identifying and defusing economic risks, and establishing a forecast of audit risk awareness. This paper finds out the main influence factors and problems on the economic development from the complicated problems, and reports the feedback information to the relevant departments of the country in time, and puts forward the suggestions of policy audit. These are all based on audit data, but the current situation is that the extraction of audit data needs a lot of manpower, material resources, time, and some of the obtained data has a certain degree of confidentiality and heterogeneity. It can not be used well by auditors, which makes it difficult to carry out some audit services. Therefore, it is necessary to build a simulation database. The research content of this paper is mainly aimed at the pension insurance in the field of social insurance. Based on the nine table 153 fields in the national standard library of the endowment insurance industry, the paper analyzes the relationship between the fields of the pension insurance industry and the pension insurance industry tables. By processing and fitting the real data, the simulation data of 50 fields in 6 data tables are generated by Monte Carlo method, and the similarity between the simulation data and the real data is verified. At the same time, the policy made by the government will have a great impact on the individual behavior of the society, which leads to the deviation between the simulation data and the real data. Therefore, when studying the simulation data, we should also pay attention to the corresponding policy system, combine the policy simulation with the data simulation, make the simulation data adjust automatically according to the policy. Based on the analysis of social insurance contributory behavior, this paper uses the classical game model to analyze the game relationship of each participant in the contributory behavior, and puts forward a model based on evolutionary game. It also analyzes the influence of different policy parameters on individual contribution behavior and social security institutions under this model. Finally, based on this model, the generation of pension contribution base can be self-adjusted according to the changes of policy. A complete simulation database is constructed with adaptive simulation data.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱工程大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F842.67;F239.4;TP391.9

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