本文選題：城鄉(xiāng)一體化 + 養(yǎng)老保險體系��； 參考：《上海工程技術大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國的養(yǎng)老保險一直在向“三支柱”協(xié)調發(fā)展的方向努力，但現(xiàn)實是第一層次的基本養(yǎng)老保險依舊承擔著主要的養(yǎng)老職能，第二層次企業(yè)年金和第三層次個人商業(yè)養(yǎng)老保險發(fā)展水平都不高。養(yǎng)老保險各層次發(fā)展不合理，導致我國養(yǎng)老保險體系發(fā)展遭遇“瓶頸”，無法充分發(fā)揮“安全網(wǎng)”的功能、滿足人們多層次的養(yǎng)老需求、提高養(yǎng)老保險的總體保障水平。再加上我國現(xiàn)在城鄉(xiāng)之間、不同地區(qū)之間、不同人群之間實行的養(yǎng)老制度存在明顯差異，在地方分割的情況下難以統(tǒng)籌，“碎片化”趨勢嚴重。多種養(yǎng)老保險制度共存，不利于全國統(tǒng)籌和轉移接續(xù)，養(yǎng)老保險制度的城鄉(xiāng)一體化是時代的發(fā)展趨勢。因此，有必要對城鄉(xiāng)一體化背景下的養(yǎng)老保險制度結構進行探究。 仿真研究要以改革設計后的城鄉(xiāng)養(yǎng)老保險體系制度結構為基礎，改革設計包括了四方面的內容：制度層次結構、保障水平、責任分擔機制和籌資模式。城鄉(xiāng)多層次養(yǎng)老保險制度結構的建立需要各層次間建立一個合理的比例關系，這種比例關系通常用各層次的養(yǎng)老金替代率來衡量，關鍵在于各個層次保障水平的確定要與該層次養(yǎng)老保險的功能相適應。因此本文的仿真主要是針對保障水平進行研究，養(yǎng)老保險體系層次結構的比例主要通過保障水平來體現(xiàn)，對其他兩個比例暫不深入研究。 從對國內外城鄉(xiāng)養(yǎng)老保險體系的研究狀況進行梳理與分析的結果可以看出，國外養(yǎng)老保險體系的研究主要集中在成功經(jīng)驗與教訓、多層次養(yǎng)老保險體系在不同國家的適用性等方面；國內的研究則主要是對制度改革的經(jīng)濟學分析、多支柱模式的實踐與可行性、或是針對某一支柱的分析，很少從定量的角度對養(yǎng)老保險體系各制度層次的保障水平進行綜合研究。因此，本文旨在通過定量仿真方法研究，在借鑒前人研究基礎上，主要從以下三個方面進行了探討與分析： 1、城鄉(xiāng)一體化背景下我國養(yǎng)老保險體系的改革設計。通過文獻研究法，了解我國目前養(yǎng)老保險體系的現(xiàn)狀，結合典型國家養(yǎng)老保險體系的理論和經(jīng)驗，從籌資模式、保障水平、層次結構和責任主體四個方面，構建出一個適應我國經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展水平，以公平為導向，以城鄉(xiāng)一體化為目標的養(yǎng)老保險制度結構。 2、各層次保障水平的系統(tǒng)動力學分析。根據(jù)我國國情，結合宏觀經(jīng)濟學相關理論以及統(tǒng)計學對模型的假設、方程及參數(shù)進行界定和估計。通過對養(yǎng)老保險體系這個復雜的社會經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)進行分析，將要素分為宏觀經(jīng)濟、消費儲蓄、人口、資本積累和養(yǎng)老保險體系內部五大模塊，構建城鄉(xiāng)養(yǎng)老保險體系各層次保障水平的系統(tǒng)動力學模型。根據(jù)4條基本假設進行系統(tǒng)仿真，模擬得到零層次的國民基礎養(yǎng)老金替代率趨向于19.28%左右，，第一層次的基本養(yǎng)老保險替代率在28.60%左右，第二層次的職業(yè)年金替代率在20.87%左右，第三層次的個人儲蓄型養(yǎng)老保險替代率在6.94%左右。各層次替代率的比例為：19.28%：28.60%：20.87%：6.94%，即1：1.48：1.08：0.36。改革設計后的養(yǎng)老保險體系總替代率達到了75.69%，與現(xiàn)行基本養(yǎng)老保險40%-50%的替代率相比，目前的保障水平只達到了改革后城鄉(xiāng)養(yǎng)老保險體系“零層次+第一層次”的水平，第二、第三層次還有很大的發(fā)展空間。 3、根據(jù)模型的仿真結果，對我國現(xiàn)有養(yǎng)老保險制度向城鄉(xiāng)一體化養(yǎng)老保險制度轉化的改革提供建議。城鄉(xiāng)養(yǎng)老保險體系，是對原有養(yǎng)老保險制度結構和現(xiàn)有養(yǎng)老保險資源利益格局的調整，并非是將原有的制度結構完全推翻，而是更進一步的推進和深化。
[Abstract]:The old-age insurance in our country has been trying to coordinate the development of the "three pillar", but the reality is that the basic endowment insurance of the first level still bears the main pension function, the second levels of enterprise annuity and the level of the third level personal commercial pension insurance are not high. The development of the pension insurance at all levels is unreasonable, which leads to the pension of our country. The development of the insurance system is in a "bottleneck", which can not give full play to the function of the "safety net", meet people's multi-level needs for the aged and improve the overall security level of the pension insurance. As a whole, the trend of "fragmentation" is serious. The co-existence of various old-age insurance systems is not conducive to the overall planning and transfer of the whole country. The integration of urban and rural areas in the pension insurance system is the trend of the times. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the structure of the pension insurance system under the background of urban and rural integration.
The simulation research should be based on the system structure of urban and rural endowment insurance system after the reform and design, and the reform design includes four aspects: the system level structure, the level of guarantee, the responsibility sharing mechanism and the financing mode. The establishment of a reasonable proportion relationship between the urban and rural multi-level endowment insurance system needs to establish a reasonable proportion relationship between various levels, this kind of comparison. The relationship is usually measured by the pension replacement rate at all levels, the key is that the assurance level of each level should be adapted to the function of the pension insurance at this level. Therefore, the simulation of this paper is mainly aimed at the research of the level of security. The proportion of the hierarchy of the pension insurance system is mainly reflected by the level of the security, and the other two The proportion is not studied in depth.
From the analysis of the status of urban and rural endowment insurance system at home and abroad, it can be seen that the research of foreign endowment insurance system mainly focuses on the successful experience and lessons, and the applicability of the multi-level old-age insurance system in different countries, and the domestic research is mainly the economic analysis of the system reform. The practice and feasibility of the pillar model, or the analysis of a pillar, seldom make a comprehensive study of the security level of the institutional levels of the pension system from a quantitative point of view. Therefore, this paper aims to study and analyze the following three aspects, on the basis of the previous research, through the quantitative simulation method.
1, the reform and design of the old-age insurance system in China under the background of urban and rural integration. Through the literature research method, we understand the present situation of the endowment insurance system in our country, and combine the theory and experience of the typical state pension insurance system, and build a new economy and society from four aspects of the financing mode, the level of security, the structure of the hierarchy and the owner of the responsibility. Development level, the structure of endowment insurance system with fairness as the goal and urban and rural integration as the goal.
2, the system dynamics analysis of the level of each level. According to the national conditions of our country, combined with the theory of macroeconomics and statistics, the equations and parameters are defined and estimated. Through the analysis of the complex social and economic system of the endowment insurance system, the factors are divided into macro economy, consumption savings, population, and capital. The system dynamics model of all levels of urban and rural endowment insurance system is constructed by five main modules in the system of accumulation and pension insurance. The system simulation is carried out according to the 4 basic assumptions. The substitution rate of national basic pension is about 19.28%, and the replacement rate of basic pension insurance in the first layer is about 28.60%, The substitution rate of occupational pension in the second level is about 20.87%, and the substitution rate of the third level personal savings pension insurance is about 6.94%. The proportion of the replacement rates at all levels is: 19.28%:28.60%:20.87%:6.94%, that is, the total replacement rate of the pension insurance system after the reform and design of 1:1.48:1.08:0.36. reaches 75.69%, and the basic old-age insurance system is in force with the current basic endowment insurance. Compared with the replacement rate of the risk 40%-50%, the current level of security only reached the level of "zero levels + the first level" of the urban and rural endowment insurance system after the reform, and the second and third levels still have a lot of space for development.
3, according to the simulation results of the model, it provides suggestions for the reform of the existing pension insurance system in China to the urban and rural integration endowment insurance system. The urban and rural endowment insurance system is the adjustment of the original old-age insurance system structure and the existing endowment insurance resources interest pattern, not to completely overthrow the original institutional structure, but to be more advanced. Progress and deepening of the step.
【學位授予單位】：上海工程技術大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F842.67

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 魯全;武文莉;;公平、平等與共享:城鄉(xiāng)統(tǒng)籌社會保障制度建設的基本理念[J];長白學刊;2008年04期

2 高君;推進城鄉(xiāng)社會保障統(tǒng)籌發(fā)展的幾點思考[J];長春師范學院學報;2005年04期

3 韋璞;;我國老年人收入來源的城鄉(xiāng)差異及其養(yǎng)老模式選擇[J];重慶工學院學報;2006年12期

4 王曉燕;;社會醫(yī)療保險費用控制方案的系統(tǒng)動力學模擬[J];財貿研究;2007年04期

5 謝元態(tài);中國農村社會保障體系相對獨立發(fā)展的必要性和可能性[J];當代財經(jīng);1998年06期

6 胡傳鈴;論市場經(jīng)濟條件下農村社會保障制度的改革與完善[J];地方政府管理;1998年10期

7 諸艷霞;黃斌;;養(yǎng)老金結構與金融結構的相關性研究——來自典型OECD國家的經(jīng)驗證明[J];公共管理學報;2009年01期

8 鄭婉儀,陳秉正;企業(yè)年金對我國退休職工養(yǎng)老保險收入替代率影響的實證分析[J];管理世界;2003年11期

9 王克強,劉紅梅,石憶邵;上海市實現(xiàn)城鄉(xiāng)社會保障一體化的必然性及現(xiàn)狀和發(fā)展模式研究[J];上海綜合經(jīng)濟;2002年09期

10 楊宜勇;顧加佳;顧嚴;;統(tǒng)籌城鄉(xiāng)養(yǎng)老保險體系問題研究[J];經(jīng)濟與管理研究;2007年04期

相關博士學位論文 前2條

1 鄔民樂;勞動生產率增長與人口老齡化的應對研究[D];復旦大學;2008年

2 陳一丹;珠海市社會醫(yī)療保險模式及其對醫(yī)療費用的影響研究[D];華中科技大學;2009年

本文編號：2109985