本文選題：長(zhǎng)期護(hù)理險(xiǎn) + 均衡保費(fèi)　； 參考：《山東大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)面臨的人口老齡化問題日益嚴(yán)重,加上慢性疾病發(fā)病率逐年提升,越來越多的老年人將面臨年老后生活不能自理的問題。但是家庭結(jié)構(gòu)的變化和人口流動(dòng)性的增加都使失能老人單純依靠家庭護(hù)理變得越來越困難,這從客觀上促進(jìn)了護(hù)理院護(hù)理這種新型行業(yè)的發(fā)展,但也意味著許多老年人需要準(zhǔn)備一筆資金來保障晚年的護(hù)理問題。老年長(zhǎng)期護(hù)理險(xiǎn)就是為了解決這筆護(hù)理資金問題而誕生的-種人身保險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品。在很多發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家,長(zhǎng)期護(hù)理險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)作為社會(huì)保險(xiǎn)或者商業(yè)保險(xiǎn),形成了比較成熟的運(yùn)作體系。但是在目前的國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)上,并沒有能夠真正解決老人在失能時(shí)候所需要的長(zhǎng)期護(hù)理保障的保險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品。 本文對(duì)國(guó)外的長(zhǎng)期護(hù)理險(xiǎn)模式做了介紹并指出了應(yīng)該借鑒的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。同時(shí)選擇了曼聯(lián)模型,利用我國(guó)的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),在一定的假設(shè)前提下對(duì)我國(guó)的長(zhǎng)期護(hù)理險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率做了精算研究和費(fèi)用負(fù)擔(dān)分析。結(jié)果表明,在較為適合市場(chǎng)需求的保險(xiǎn)期限為20年、給付期限為5年的保險(xiǎn)假設(shè)前提下,如果以當(dāng)前護(hù)理費(fèi)用市場(chǎng)的價(jià)格作為我國(guó)長(zhǎng)期護(hù)理險(xiǎn)的賠付標(biāo)準(zhǔn),長(zhǎng)期護(hù)理險(xiǎn)的均衡純保費(fèi)是一般的城鎮(zhèn)居民可以承受的。但是對(duì)于失能率較高、收入反而較低的鄉(xiāng)村居民來講,長(zhǎng)期護(hù)理險(xiǎn)的費(fèi)用偏高,這就需要政府有一定的作為。 最后,本文就長(zhǎng)期護(hù)理險(xiǎn)在經(jīng)營(yíng)過程中可能遇到的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了分析,并對(duì)應(yīng)對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的措施提出了一點(diǎn)見解。更保守的定價(jià)方式、根據(jù)利潤(rùn)測(cè)算不斷的調(diào)整費(fèi)率以及金融產(chǎn)品的創(chuàng)新都是可以用了規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的方式。
[Abstract]:The problem of aging population in China is becoming more and more serious, and the incidence of chronic diseases is increasing year by year. More and more elderly people will face the problem of being unable to take care of themselves after old age. However, the changes in family structure and the increase in population mobility make it more and more difficult for the disabled elderly to rely solely on family care, which objectively promotes the development of nursing home nursing, a new type of industry. But it also means that many older people need to set aside money to secure care in their old age. Old age long-term care insurance is to solve the problem of care funds and born-life insurance products. In many developed countries, long-term care insurance has formed a more mature operation system as social insurance or commercial insurance. But in the current domestic market, there is no real solution to the elderly in the event of disability need long-term care insurance products. This paper introduces the long-term nursing insurance model abroad and points out the experience that should be used for reference. At the same time, the author chooses the Manchester United model and makes an actuarial study and cost burden analysis on the long term nursing insurance rate under certain assumptions by using the statistical data of our country. The results show that under the assumption that the insurance period is 20 years and the payment period is 5 years, if the current market price of nursing expenses is taken as the standard of long-term care insurance in China, The balanced net premium of long-term care insurance is affordable to average urban residents. But for the rural residents with higher disability rate and lower income, the cost of long-term care insurance is on the high side, which requires the government to do something. Finally, this paper analyzes the risks that may be encountered in the long-term nursing insurance, and puts forward some opinions on the measures to deal with the risks. More conservative pricing, constantly adjusted rates based on profit estimates, and innovation in financial products can be risk-averse.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F842.6;F224

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本文編號(hào)：2066363