發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-22 04:26

  本文選題：廣東社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn) + 城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)�。� 參考：《廣東商學(xué)院》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)在經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí)，社會(huì)發(fā)展的相對(duì)滯后和社會(huì)保障體系的缺失與不完善成為居民消費(fèi)傾向下降的重要原因。在歐債危機(jī)與貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義抬頭的國(guó)際背景下，國(guó)內(nèi)收入分配差距的趨勢(shì)仍在擴(kuò)大的國(guó)內(nèi)背景下，刺激消費(fèi)，擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需成為我國(guó)當(dāng)前和今后很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)期里經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要途徑。當(dāng)前，居民消費(fèi)不振是擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需的主要瓶頸，社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度作為影響居民消費(fèi)的主要因素之一，其發(fā)展和完善在很大程度上影響著消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)。研究養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)支出與居民消費(fèi)的關(guān)系，具有重大的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文的研究思路如下：首先，根據(jù)閱讀整理的文獻(xiàn)，對(duì)社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)影響城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)進(jìn)行理論方面的研究，主要介紹了絕對(duì)收入假說(shuō)和莫迪利安尼的生命周期假說(shuō)等西方經(jīng)典理論。其次，對(duì)我國(guó)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)體制的歷史演變和廣東社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行闡述，著重分析新型城鎮(zhèn)社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)試點(diǎn)工作開(kāi)展以來(lái)廣東社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀。在此基礎(chǔ)上，統(tǒng)計(jì)分析廣東城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)、消費(fèi)總量和結(jié)構(gòu)變化，總結(jié)出了影響廣東城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)支出的養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)因素。再次，本文根據(jù)生命周期理論構(gòu)建養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)與城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)支出的消費(fèi)函數(shù)模型，，利用廣東省2005-2008年間16個(gè)地市的面板數(shù)據(jù)和2001-2011年的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。實(shí)證分析表明，社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)支出顯著地影響了廣東省城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)的支出。最后，結(jié)合理論、實(shí)證研究，進(jìn)一步得出本文研究結(jié)論，在此基礎(chǔ)上提出政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the rapid economic growth in China, the relative lag of social development and the lack and imperfection of social security system have become the important reasons for the decline of consumption tendency of residents. In the international context of the European debt crisis and the rise of trade protectionism, the trend of domestic income distribution gaps is still widening in the domestic context, stimulating consumption, Expanding domestic demand has become the main way of economic growth at present and for a long time to come. At present, the sluggish consumption of residents is the main bottleneck of expanding domestic demand. As one of the main factors affecting the consumption of residents, the development and perfection of the social old-age insurance system has a great impact on the growth of consumption. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the relationship between endowment insurance expenditure and resident consumption. The research ideas of this paper are as follows: firstly, according to the literature, the paper studies the influence of social endowment insurance on the consumption of urban residents. This paper mainly introduces the absolute income hypothesis and Modigliani's life cycle hypothesis. Secondly, the paper expounds the historical evolution of China's endowment insurance system and the present situation of Guangdong's social old-age insurance, focusing on the analysis of the development status of Guangdong's social old-age insurance since the pilot work of new urban social old-age insurance was carried out. On this basis, the change trend of consumption, the total amount and structure of consumption of urban residents in Guangdong are analyzed statistically, and the pension insurance factors that affect the consumption expenditure of urban residents in Guangdong are summarized. Thirdly, according to the theory of life cycle, this paper constructs the consumption function model of endowment insurance and urban residents' consumption expenditure, using the panel data of 16 prefectures in Guangdong Province from 2005 to 2008 and the time series data from 2001 to 2011 to carry on the empirical analysis. The empirical analysis shows that the expenditure of social pension insurance has a significant impact on the expenditure of urban residents in Guangdong province. Finally, combined with the theory and empirical research, the conclusion of this paper is drawn, and the policy recommendations are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東商學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F126.1;F842.67

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