本文選題：廣東社會養(yǎng)老保險 + 城鎮(zhèn)居民消費　； 參考：《廣東商學(xué)院》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國在經(jīng)濟快速增長的同時，社會發(fā)展的相對滯后和社會保障體系的缺失與不完善成為居民消費傾向下降的重要原因。在歐債危機與貿(mào)易保護主義抬頭的國際背景下，國內(nèi)收入分配差距的趨勢仍在擴大的國內(nèi)背景下，刺激消費，擴大內(nèi)需成為我國當(dāng)前和今后很長一段時期里經(jīng)濟增長的主要途徑。當(dāng)前，居民消費不振是擴大內(nèi)需的主要瓶頸，社會養(yǎng)老保險制度作為影響居民消費的主要因素之一，其發(fā)展和完善在很大程度上影響著消費增長。研究養(yǎng)老保險支出與居民消費的關(guān)系，具有重大的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。 本文的研究思路如下：首先，根據(jù)閱讀整理的文獻，對社會養(yǎng)老保險影響城鎮(zhèn)居民消費進行理論方面的研究，主要介紹了絕對收入假說和莫迪利安尼的生命周期假說等西方經(jīng)典理論。其次，對我國養(yǎng)老保險體制的歷史演變和廣東社會養(yǎng)老保險的現(xiàn)狀進行闡述，著重分析新型城鎮(zhèn)社會養(yǎng)老保險試點工作開展以來廣東社會養(yǎng)老保險的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀。在此基礎(chǔ)上，統(tǒng)計分析廣東城鎮(zhèn)居民消費變動趨勢、消費總量和結(jié)構(gòu)變化，總結(jié)出了影響廣東城鎮(zhèn)居民消費支出的養(yǎng)老保險因素。再次，本文根據(jù)生命周期理論構(gòu)建養(yǎng)老保險與城鎮(zhèn)居民消費支出的消費函數(shù)模型，，利用廣東省2005-2008年間16個地市的面板數(shù)據(jù)和2001-2011年的時間序列數(shù)據(jù)進行實證分析。實證分析表明，社會養(yǎng)老保險支出顯著地影響了廣東省城鎮(zhèn)居民消費的支出。最后，結(jié)合理論、實證研究，進一步得出本文研究結(jié)論，在此基礎(chǔ)上提出政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the rapid economic growth in China, the relative lag of social development and the lack and imperfection of social security system have become the important reasons for the decline of consumption tendency of residents. In the international context of the European debt crisis and the rise of trade protectionism, the trend of domestic income distribution gaps is still widening in the domestic context, stimulating consumption, Expanding domestic demand has become the main way of economic growth at present and for a long time to come. At present, the sluggish consumption of residents is the main bottleneck of expanding domestic demand. As one of the main factors affecting the consumption of residents, the development and perfection of the social old-age insurance system has a great impact on the growth of consumption. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the relationship between endowment insurance expenditure and resident consumption. The research ideas of this paper are as follows: firstly, according to the literature, the paper studies the influence of social endowment insurance on the consumption of urban residents. This paper mainly introduces the absolute income hypothesis and Modigliani's life cycle hypothesis. Secondly, the paper expounds the historical evolution of China's endowment insurance system and the present situation of Guangdong's social old-age insurance, focusing on the analysis of the development status of Guangdong's social old-age insurance since the pilot work of new urban social old-age insurance was carried out. On this basis, the change trend of consumption, the total amount and structure of consumption of urban residents in Guangdong are analyzed statistically, and the pension insurance factors that affect the consumption expenditure of urban residents in Guangdong are summarized. Thirdly, according to the theory of life cycle, this paper constructs the consumption function model of endowment insurance and urban residents' consumption expenditure, using the panel data of 16 prefectures in Guangdong Province from 2005 to 2008 and the time series data from 2001 to 2011 to carry on the empirical analysis. The empirical analysis shows that the expenditure of social pension insurance has a significant impact on the expenditure of urban residents in Guangdong province. Finally, combined with the theory and empirical research, the conclusion of this paper is drawn, and the policy recommendations are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東商學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F126.1;F842.67

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