本文選題：保險業(yè) + 順周期性��； 參考：《中國海洋大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著金融危機(jī)的爆發(fā)，順周期性被認(rèn)為是造成金融系統(tǒng)脆弱性的原因之一，金融系統(tǒng)順周期性成為經(jīng)濟(jì)界研究的熱點。目前對于順周期性的研究絕大多數(shù)集中于銀行業(yè)的順周期性。隨著保險業(yè)的發(fā)展和成熟，保險在分擔(dān)風(fēng)險和集聚資本方面的作用更加凸顯。因此對于我國保險業(yè)順周期性進(jìn)行研究有利于掌握保險業(yè)發(fā)展和波動的規(guī)律，有針對性地避免順周期性可能帶來的風(fēng)險。 在大量研究順周期性的文獻(xiàn)中，并未對順周期性進(jìn)行明確而統(tǒng)一的界定。本文通過對大量文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行梳理，整理出4種不同內(nèi)涵的順周期性的定義。通過對相關(guān)理論的研究并結(jié)合實際，選取了保險業(yè)順GDP周期、順存款周期及自身順周期三個方面作為研究方向。本文對三個研究方向的相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行了說明，并通過對數(shù)據(jù)趨勢的分析分別對每個方面做出了直觀的分析和基本假設(shè)，為實證研究部分奠定了理論基礎(chǔ)。 在對我國保險業(yè)的順周期性進(jìn)行實證研究時，首先對保險業(yè)順周期的存在性進(jìn)行了檢驗。在此基礎(chǔ)上，通過實證分析順周期性的影響機(jī)制，進(jìn)一步驗證了順周期性的存在，，并且清晰地表明變量間的影響機(jī)制。 在對我國保險業(yè)順周期的存在性進(jìn)行研究時，本文選取了協(xié)整分析的方法。一般認(rèn)為存在長期協(xié)整關(guān)系能夠判斷順周期存在性，本文選取31個省市1998年一2011年的面板數(shù)據(jù)，對保費收入與GDP、保費收入與儲蓄存款兩組變量之間的協(xié)整關(guān)系進(jìn)行了檢驗。結(jié)果表明，保費收入與GDP、保費收入與儲蓄存款之間存在長期穩(wěn)定的協(xié)整關(guān)系。保費收入與其本身之間必定存在協(xié)整關(guān)系。研究結(jié)果表明我國保險業(yè)的順周期性是存在的。 在對我國保險業(yè)順周期的影響機(jī)制進(jìn)行研究時，本文運用了格蘭杰因果檢驗、自回歸模型估計、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)、方差分解和濾波分解等方法。通過選取我國1980年一2011年間國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、儲蓄存款和保費收入的數(shù)據(jù)，從不同角度各有側(cè)重地對順周期性的影響機(jī)制進(jìn)行檢驗。格蘭杰因果是對變量之間關(guān)系進(jìn)行定性描述，自回歸模型對變量之間關(guān)系進(jìn)行定量描述，脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分別對GDP、儲蓄存款和保費收入自身波動對保費收入的沖擊進(jìn)行描述，方差分解對三個變量影響保費收入波動的貢獻(xiàn)度進(jìn)行了定量研究。通過分析可以看出，無論是從短期還是長期來看，保費收入自身、GDP和儲蓄存款余額的波動都是解釋保費收入波動的重要原因。特別是GDP在影響保險業(yè)順周期性的因素中占較大的比例，從一定意義上說明了我國保險業(yè)順GDP的周期性較強(qiáng)；儲蓄存款余額波動對于解釋保費收入波動的力度雖然不如GDP那樣明顯，但是這種解釋作用還是比較明顯的，說明儲蓄存款余額是保險業(yè)波動的重要原因。 在此基礎(chǔ)上，本文對順周期性的存在而引起的積極意義和可能帶來的風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了簡要分析，相應(yīng)提出了增強(qiáng)保險機(jī)構(gòu)的風(fēng)險觀念和內(nèi)部風(fēng)險管理、轉(zhuǎn)變保險業(yè)激勵機(jī)制和建立逆周期監(jiān)管等建議。 本文的創(chuàng)新點在于通過對順周期性含義的梳理，確定了研究保險業(yè)順周期性的三個角度，為全面地分析保險業(yè)順周期性提供了新的研究思路。本文的貢獻(xiàn)在于對保險業(yè)順周期性的存在性進(jìn)行了檢驗，對于根據(jù)這種規(guī)律及時調(diào)整保險業(yè)發(fā)展的策略和相關(guān)政策具有一定的實踐意義。此外，本文在對保險業(yè)順周期性的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析和相應(yīng)的政策建議也可作為實施保險業(yè)相關(guān)政策的參考。
[Abstract]:Along with the outbreak of the financial crisis, the CIS periodicity is considered to be one of the reasons for the vulnerability of the financial system. The CIS cycle of the financial system has become a hot spot in the research of the economy. Therefore, the study of the CIS cycle of China's insurance industry is conducive to the control of the law of the development and volatility of the insurance industry, and to avoid the risks that may be brought about by the cyclical.
In the literature of a large number of studies on the cyclical nature, there is no clear and unified definition of the CIS cyclical nature. By combing a large number of documents, this paper collate 4 definitions of the CIS cycle of different connotations. Through the study of the relevant theories and the combination of practice, the insurance industry is cis GDP cycle, the CIS deposit cycle and the self CIS cycle of three are selected. As the research direction, this paper explains the related theories of the three research directions, and makes a visual analysis and basic hypothesis for each aspect by analyzing the data trend, which lays a theoretical foundation for the empirical research.
In the empirical study of the CIS cycle of China's insurance industry, the existence of the insurance business cycle is tested first. On this basis, through the empirical analysis of the mechanism of the cyclical impact, the existence of the CIS cycle is verified and the influence mechanism between the variables is clearly demonstrated.
In the study of the existence of the insurance business cycle in China, this paper selects the cointegration analysis method. It is generally believed that the existence of long-term co integration can judge the existence of the CIS cycle. In this paper, the panel data of the 31 provinces and cities in the first 2011 of 1998 is selected, and the cointegration between premium income and GDP, premium income and savings account two sets of variables The results show that there is a long-term and stable cointegration relationship between premium income and GDP, premium income and savings deposits. There must be a cointegration relationship between premium income and its own. The results show that the CIS cycle of China's insurance industry exists.
In the study of the impact mechanism of China's insurance industry, this paper uses Grainger causality test, autoregressive model estimation, impulse response function, variance decomposition and filter decomposition. By selecting the data of GDP, savings deposits and premium income in China in the first 2011 years of 1980, we have different points of view from different angles. Grainger causality is a qualitative description of the relationship between variables. The relationship between the variables is described quantitatively by the autoregressive model. The impulse response function describes the impact of GDP, savings deposit and premium income on the impact of premium income, and the variance decomposition affects the three variables. The contribution of premium income fluctuation is quantitatively studied. Through analysis, it can be seen that, from short or long term, premium income itself, GDP and the fluctuation of savings deposit balance are important reasons for explaining the volatility of premium income. Especially, the proportion of GDP in the factors that affect the insurance industry is a larger proportion, from a certain point of view. It shows that China's insurance industry is more cyclical than GDP, while the fluctuation of savings deposit balance is not as obvious as that of GDP, but this explanation is more obvious, indicating that the balance of savings deposits is an important reason for the fluctuation of the insurance industry.
On this basis, this paper makes a brief analysis of the positive and possible risks caused by the existence of cyclical, and puts forward some suggestions on strengthening the risk concept and internal risk management of the insurance institutions, changing the incentive mechanism of the insurance industry and setting up the reverse cycle supervision.
The innovation of this paper is to determine the three angles of the study of the CIS cycle of the insurance industry by combing the meaning of the CIS cycle, and to provide a new way of thinking for the comprehensive analysis of the insurance industry's CIS cycle. The development strategy and relevant policies are of certain practical significance. In addition, this paper can also be used as a reference for the implementation of the related policy of insurance industry in the economic analysis of the insurance industry and the corresponding policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F842

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