本文選題：基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金缺口 + 財(cái)政��； 參考：《天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：社會(huì)保障是當(dāng)代社會(huì)不可缺少的福利機(jī)制,是社會(huì)發(fā)展的“安全網(wǎng)”和“穩(wěn)定器”。基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度作為社會(huì)保障制度的核心,有利于穩(wěn)定社會(huì)秩序,促進(jìn)社會(huì)的和諧發(fā)展�，F(xiàn)階段我國基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度實(shí)行的是社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌與個(gè)人賬戶相結(jié)合的部分積累制,但在制度由現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付制向部分積累制轉(zhuǎn)變與發(fā)展的實(shí)踐過程中,存在著轉(zhuǎn)制成本大、制度缺失以及“空賬”規(guī)模增大等問題,而且隨著我國近年來人口老齡化進(jìn)程的加快,養(yǎng)老金支出在不斷加大。這些因素使得養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金收不抵支,基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金出現(xiàn)缺口,而且缺口額在不斷增加。養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)關(guān)系到人們的切身利益保障,由此養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金缺口問題引起人們對(duì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金財(cái)務(wù)可持續(xù)性的關(guān)注和重視。當(dāng)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金出現(xiàn)支付不足時(shí),為保證養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)金的順利發(fā)放,政府財(cái)政對(duì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金負(fù)有補(bǔ)貼責(zé)任。而財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼的力度應(yīng)在政府財(cái)政所能承受的范圍之內(nèi),否則,可能會(huì)影響經(jīng)濟(jì)長期穩(wěn)定發(fā)展甚至出現(xiàn)因財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn)過大而引發(fā)債務(wù)危機(jī)。為此,有必要對(duì)財(cái)政對(duì)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金缺口的承受力進(jìn)行分析,并進(jìn)行壓力測試,測定未來短期內(nèi)我國財(cái)政是否能承受基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金缺口。這有助于完善我國的養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度,有助于為政府在養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)補(bǔ)貼方面的財(cái)政決策提供參考。本文借鑒了金融系統(tǒng)中商業(yè)銀行應(yīng)用宏觀壓力測試的思想和方法,以財(cái)政對(duì)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金缺口承受力為被解釋變量,以影響財(cái)政對(duì)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金缺口承受力的各因素變量為解釋變量,建立財(cái)政對(duì)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金缺口承受力的模型,進(jìn)行模型的估計(jì)與檢驗(yàn)；然后采用情景壓力測試方法考察當(dāng)對(duì)影響?zhàn)B老保險(xiǎn)基金收支的關(guān)鍵變量的值加以改變時(shí),我國財(cái)政對(duì)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金缺口的承受能力狀況,進(jìn)而得出未來短期我國財(cái)政能夠承受養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金缺口的結(jié)論。最后提出完善財(cái)政補(bǔ)助保障機(jī)制、提高養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度的統(tǒng)籌層次、加強(qiáng)基金管理以及延長退休年齡等方面的建議。
[Abstract]:Social security is an indispensable welfare mechanism, a safety net and a stabilizer for social development. As the core of the social security system, the basic old-age insurance system is conducive to stabilizing the social order and promoting the harmonious development of the society. At present, the basic old-age insurance system in our country is based on the combination of social planning and personal accounts. However, in the process of system transformation and development from pay-as-you-go system to partial accumulation system, there is a great cost of transformation. The system is missing and the scale of "empty account" is increasing, and with the acceleration of population aging in recent years, pension expenditure is increasing. These factors make the pension fund income not offset, the basic pension fund gap, and the gap is increasing. Pension insurance is related to the protection of people's vital interests, so the gap of pension insurance fund has aroused people's concern and attention to the financial sustainability of pension insurance funds. When the pension fund is underpaid, the government has the responsibility to subsidize the pension fund in order to guarantee the smooth issuance of the pension insurance fund. The intensity of financial subsidy should be within the range that the government finance can bear, otherwise, it may affect the long-term stable development of economy and even cause debt crisis because of excessive financial risk. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the ability of finance to bear the gap of basic old-age insurance fund, and to carry out a stress test to determine whether the finance of our country can bear the gap of basic pension fund in the short term in the future. It is helpful to perfect the endowment insurance system of our country and provide reference for the government's financial decision on the pension insurance subsidy. This paper draws lessons from the idea and method of applying macro-stress test to commercial banks in the financial system, and takes the gap bearing capacity of the basic pension insurance fund as the explanatory variable. Taking the factors that affect the gap bearing capacity of the basic pension insurance fund as the explanatory variables, the model of the gap bearing capacity of the finance to the basic pension fund is established, and the model is estimated and tested. Then the situational stress test method is used to investigate the financial capacity of the basic pension fund gap when the value of the key variables affecting the income and expenditure of the pension fund is changed. And then draw the conclusion that the short-term finance of our country can bear the gap of pension fund in the future. Finally, some suggestions are put forward, such as perfecting the mechanism of financial subsidy, raising the overall level of pension insurance system, strengthening the fund management and extending the retirement age.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F842.67;F812

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