本文選題：退保 + 時間序列��； 參考：《昆明理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國居民的可自行支配的收入額不斷增加,國內(nèi)壽險行業(yè)也快速的發(fā)展,2016年保險全行業(yè)資產(chǎn)總額達(dá)到12.4萬億元,較年初增加25.22%,2017年實現(xiàn)原保費收入1.74萬億元,比上一年度增長31.72%。國內(nèi)壽險企業(yè)高速發(fā)展的時后,行業(yè)的退保率逼近國際通行的警戒水平。僅2015全年幾家上市保險公司的退保金額就為2028億元,同比增加9%,平安的退保金更是大增62.7%,很高的退保率與壽險行業(yè)當(dāng)前高速發(fā)展相悖。如果說自愿存款情況下,取款自由的情況下,那么自愿投保的情況下,退保也可以自行決定的。退保對投保人、壽險公司雙方都會帶來不小影響。退保會影響壽險公司的現(xiàn)金流,對保證金造成壓力,極其嚴(yán)重時會使償付能力下降。退保率較高的壽險公司行業(yè)口碑,形象也會受到很大沖擊。本文結(jié)合N公司的實際情況,通過大量數(shù)據(jù)分析,基于時間序列構(gòu)建了滬深300指數(shù)、余額寶7日收益率、退保率等幾個指標(biāo)的回歸分析,得出股市短期的大幅度波動對于退保率有較大影響,余額寶7日收益率等固定收益的產(chǎn)品在長期對退保有影響的結(jié)論。同時依托相關(guān)的財務(wù)信息構(gòu)建資金鏈指標(biāo),也佐證了退保的增加對于壽險公司的資金流會產(chǎn)生較大的影響,得出股市波動在短期內(nèi)影響退保率,寶寶類的影響在長期。結(jié)合目前行業(yè)與N公司的實際情況分析并總結(jié)出改善產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)、完善服務(wù)經(jīng)營、合理的多種經(jīng)營模式等可供實踐的方案。
[Abstract]:With the increasing amount of disposable income of Chinese residents and the rapid development of the domestic life insurance industry, the total assets of the insurance industry in 2016 reached 12.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.22 yuan over the beginning of the year, and the original premium income of 1.74 trillion yuan was realized in 2017. This is an increase of 31.72 percent over the previous year. With the rapid development of domestic life insurance enterprises, the withdrawal rate of the industry is close to the international warning level. In 2015 alone, the amount of withdrawal of several listed insurance companies was 202.8 billion yuan, an increase of 9% over the same period last year, and Ping an's withdrawal gold increased by 62.7%. The very high withdrawal rate is contrary to the current rapid development of the life insurance industry. If the case of voluntary deposits, withdrawal of money free case, then voluntary insurance case, surrender insurance can also decide on its own. The withdrawal of insurance policy-holders, life insurance companies will have a significant impact on both sides. Withdrawal can affect the cash flow of life insurance companies, put pressure on margin, and reduce solvency when extremely serious. The higher surrender rate of life insurance companies industry reputation, image will also be a great impact. Combined with the actual situation of N Company, through a large number of data analysis, based on the time series, this paper constructs a regression analysis of several indicators, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, Yu'e Bao's 7 days rate of return, surrender rate and so on. It is concluded that the short-term volatility of the stock market has a great impact on the rate of withdrawal, and that the fixed income products such as Yu'e Bao's yield of 7 days have a long-term impact on the return of the guarantee. At the same time, based on the related financial information to construct the capital chain index, it also proves that the increase in the return of insurance will have a greater impact on the capital flow of life insurance companies, the stock market fluctuations in the short term affect the withdrawal rate, the impact of the baby class in the long term. According to the actual situation of the industry and N company, this paper analyzes and sums up some practical schemes, such as improving the product structure, perfecting the service management, and reasonable diversified management mode.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F842.3

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 邢福東;退保對壽險經(jīng)營的影響及對策[J];中國保險;1998年08期

2 陳兵,付志超;利率波動對壽險經(jīng)營的影響與對策[J];保險研究;1997年09期

3 楚軍紅;通貨膨脹對壽險需求的影響機制分析[J];經(jīng)濟科學(xué);1997年03期

4 李格非,李卉;金融環(huán)境論略[J];武漢理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(社會科學(xué)版);2002年02期

5 林霄,李勇,李虹;壽險公司的利率風(fēng)險度量及管理[J];保險研究;2003年01期

6 丁繼紅,朱銘來;試論我國醫(yī)療保險制度改革與醫(yī)療費用增長的有效控制[J];南開經(jīng)濟研究;2004年04期

7 曹雪琴;;金融型退保與壽險產(chǎn)品完善的對策[J];上海保險;2007年10期

8 房海濱;陳立文;;嵌入退保期權(quán)的壽險保單定價分析[J];北京理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(社會科學(xué)版);2006年05期

9 毛宏;;保險定價中各種風(fēng)險因素的分析[J];商業(yè)研究;2006年02期

10 趙源;;試論保險資金運用的風(fēng)險及管理[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(下半月);2007年01期

相關(guān)重要報紙文章 前1條

1 薛蓓;周云;;我國的四種壽險產(chǎn)品及其特點[N];中國保險報;2002年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 鄧恒軍;我國壽險業(yè)退保問題及其對策研究[D];西南財經(jīng)大學(xué);2013年

2 容為民;升息對壽險產(chǎn)品退保率的影響及其對策研究[D];湖南大學(xué);2005年

，

本文編號：1805749