本文選題：失業(yè)保險(xiǎn) + 失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)基金�。� 參考：《東北大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：失業(yè)是一個(gè)較為普遍的國際性問題,在我國,城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)率居高不下與失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)基金結(jié)余過高并存是亟待解決的問題,如何優(yōu)化現(xiàn)行失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)基金制度,實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展,成為我國失業(yè)保障部門面臨的重大挑戰(zhàn)。筆者以系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)理論為基礎(chǔ),運(yùn)用AnyLogic6.9.0軟件預(yù)測在現(xiàn)有政策不變的情況下,遼寧省未來10年的失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)基金收支變化狀況,并通過調(diào)整失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)繳費(fèi)率、職業(yè)介紹和職業(yè)培訓(xùn)比例、失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)替代率和平均支付期四個(gè)參數(shù),來模擬不同政策條件下預(yù)測期內(nèi)遼寧省失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)基金的收支變化狀況。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),現(xiàn)行政策不變條件下,預(yù)測期2013—2022年內(nèi)失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)基金收入和基金支出兩者之間的差距越來越大,從而導(dǎo)致基金累計(jì)余額從2018年開始呈現(xiàn)大幅度增長的趨勢,并且到2022年,這種趨勢越發(fā)嚴(yán)重,累計(jì)余額達(dá)到588.97億元。優(yōu)化實(shí)驗(yàn)的研究結(jié)果表明,同時(shí)調(diào)整失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)繳費(fèi)率、職業(yè)介紹與職業(yè)培訓(xùn)比例和失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)替代率三個(gè)政策參數(shù)的混合策略結(jié)果最優(yōu),到2022年,基金累計(jì)余額將降為44.07億元,這一數(shù)值較為合理,即失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)基金收支狀況得到有效改善,基本實(shí)現(xiàn)了基金運(yùn)行收支平衡,略有結(jié)余,失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)基金利用社會(huì)效用最大化的目標(biāo)。最后,本文對構(gòu)建和完善失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)基金制度進(jìn)行優(yōu)化設(shè)計(jì),提出將適當(dāng)調(diào)整失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率、逐步提高失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)替代率水平、加大職業(yè)介紹與職業(yè)培訓(xùn)支出和積極擴(kuò)大失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)覆蓋人群等幾項(xiàng)策略有機(jī)結(jié)合,以保證2013—-2022年期間遼寧省失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)基金收支平衡發(fā)展的建議。
[Abstract]:Unemployment is a common international problem. In our country, the coexistence of high registered unemployment rate and excessive balance of unemployment insurance fund is an urgent problem to be solved. How to optimize the current unemployment insurance fund system and realize sustainable development, Become the major challenge that our country unemployment security department faces. Based on the theory of system dynamics, the author uses AnyLogic6.9.0 software to predict the change of unemployment insurance fund income and expenditure in Liaoning Province in the next 10 years, and adjust the contribution rate of unemployment insurance. The ratio of job introduction and vocational training, the replacement rate of unemployment insurance and the average payment period are four parameters to simulate the change of income and expenditure of unemployment insurance fund in Liaoning province under different policy conditions. The study found that the gap between the income of the unemployment insurance fund and the fund expenditure in the forecast period 2013-2022 is getting wider and larger under the condition of the current policy, which has led to a trend of a substantial increase in the cumulative balance of the fund since 2018. And by 2022, this trend became more serious, the cumulative balance reached 58.897 billion yuan. The results of the optimization experiment show that the mixed policy results of adjusting the contribution rate of unemployment insurance, the ratio of job introduction to vocational training and the replacement rate of unemployment insurance are optimal. By 2022, the cumulative balance of the fund will be reduced to 4.407 billion yuan. This value is more reasonable, that is to say, the income and expenditure of unemployment insurance fund is improved effectively, which basically achieves the goal of balance of income and expenditure, a little surplus, and the maximization of social utility of unemployment insurance fund. Finally, this paper optimizes the construction and improvement of unemployment insurance fund system, and puts forward that the unemployment insurance rate will be adjusted appropriately, and the replacement rate of unemployment insurance will be raised step by step. It is suggested that the unemployment insurance fund in Liaoning Province should be balanced in income and expenditure during the period of 2013-2022 by organically combining several strategies such as increasing the expenditure on vocational training and actively expanding the coverage of unemployment insurance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F842.61;N941.3

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