本文選題：壽險(xiǎn)需求 + 投資型壽險(xiǎn)��； 參考：《中南大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：壽險(xiǎn)需求是保險(xiǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)實(shí)踐與理論研究的重要問(wèn)題�，F(xiàn)代壽險(xiǎn)業(yè)的一個(gè)顯著特點(diǎn)是投資型壽險(xiǎn)占據(jù)絕對(duì)地位,因而,以往那種以保障型產(chǎn)品作為研究對(duì)象的壽險(xiǎn)需求理論需要進(jìn)行適時(shí)改進(jìn)。本文對(duì)壽險(xiǎn)需求進(jìn)行研究,尤其將投資型壽險(xiǎn)作為研究的重點(diǎn),以期了解投資型壽險(xiǎn)的需求規(guī)律。投資型壽險(xiǎn)是指將保障功能與資金運(yùn)用功能相結(jié)合的壽險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品,能夠給投資者帶來(lái)不確定的收益,包括分紅險(xiǎn)、萬(wàn)能險(xiǎn)與投連險(xiǎn)。因?yàn)橥顿Y型壽險(xiǎn)同時(shí)具有保障與投資功能,其收益具有不確定性以及相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)收集的困難,所以,投資型壽險(xiǎn)需求的理論與實(shí)證文獻(xiàn)比較稀少,已有的個(gè)別文獻(xiàn)還有待完善。近十年來(lái),投資型壽險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品的出現(xiàn)已經(jīng)深刻的改變了壽險(xiǎn)業(yè)的格局。目前,壽險(xiǎn)業(yè)面臨增速放緩以及回歸保障型產(chǎn)品等諸多問(wèn)題,因此,研究壽險(xiǎn)需求尤其是投資型壽險(xiǎn)的需求具有重要的理論與現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文首先對(duì)壽險(xiǎn)需求及相關(guān)概念進(jìn)行界定,梳理投資型壽險(xiǎn)的發(fā)展歷史,介紹其具體的品種,分析其特點(diǎn)；然后對(duì)壽險(xiǎn)需求理論進(jìn)行綜述,在此基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)影響壽險(xiǎn)需求的因素做出定性分析。接著對(duì)壽險(xiǎn)需求建立理論模型。對(duì)于理論模型研究,本文遵循從簡(jiǎn)單到復(fù)雜的原則,從金融資產(chǎn)組合視角出發(fā),在連續(xù)時(shí)間模型的框架內(nèi),首先建立一個(gè)保障型壽險(xiǎn)的基礎(chǔ)模型,然后在此基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)一步假設(shè)個(gè)體購(gòu)買(mǎi)的是投資型壽險(xiǎn),對(duì)基礎(chǔ)模型進(jìn)行拓展,建立投資型壽險(xiǎn)需求的連續(xù)時(shí)間模型。 在理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上,本文對(duì)我國(guó)的壽險(xiǎn)需求進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。首先,建立變參數(shù)的狀態(tài)空間模型,采用1999-2010年的季度數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)影響壽險(xiǎn)需求的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)因素,如收入、利率及通貨膨脹與總壽險(xiǎn)需求之間的關(guān)系,進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,以期了解在投資型險(xiǎn)種所占比例的上升的情況下,壽險(xiǎn)需求出現(xiàn)的變化。然后,本文采用2001-2010年的全國(guó)35個(gè)大中城市的投資型壽險(xiǎn)的保費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)影響投資型壽險(xiǎn)需求的因素和投資型壽險(xiǎn)需求之間的關(guān)系建立動(dòng)態(tài)面板模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。 基于以上思路與研究的內(nèi)容,本文的創(chuàng)新主要有：(1)在現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)造了新的雙隨機(jī)過(guò)程,建立了新的投資型壽險(xiǎn)需求的理論模型,該模型求解簡(jiǎn)便,結(jié)果簡(jiǎn)單,其經(jīng)濟(jì)意義十分明顯；(2)本文深入挖掘顯性解的經(jīng)濟(jì)意義,得出了壽險(xiǎn)的“莫森”定理,發(fā)現(xiàn)了保費(fèi)-凈財(cái)富公式,并用它解釋了“年金之謎”；同時(shí)首次指出消費(fèi)如何對(duì)壽險(xiǎn)需求產(chǎn)生影響,得出保障型壽險(xiǎn)與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)的“分離定理”；(3)本文對(duì)壽險(xiǎn)需求的動(dòng)態(tài)模擬分析結(jié)果,其經(jīng)濟(jì)意義更明顯,和現(xiàn)實(shí)更接近；(4)首次運(yùn)用狀態(tài)空間模型對(duì)我國(guó)壽險(xiǎn)需求進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,對(duì)不同經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境下,人們壽險(xiǎn)需求的變化有了新的認(rèn)識(shí)；(5)首次運(yùn)用動(dòng)態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型對(duì)投資型壽險(xiǎn)的需求進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,對(duì)影響投資型壽險(xiǎn)的因素進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn),增加了對(duì)投資型壽險(xiǎn)發(fā)展實(shí)際情況的了解。 基于以上研究,本文得出如下主要結(jié)論：(1)在保費(fèi)精算公平的情況下,保障型壽險(xiǎn)是凈財(cái)富的完全替代品,保費(fèi)率是保障型壽險(xiǎn)的邊際消費(fèi)傾向；(2)預(yù)期收入、投資型壽險(xiǎn)的回報(bào)率、股票波動(dòng)率、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡參數(shù)以及死亡率對(duì)投資型壽險(xiǎn)的需求影響為正,而投資型壽險(xiǎn)的違約率、股票收益率、時(shí)間貼現(xiàn)因子對(duì)投資型壽險(xiǎn)需求影響為負(fù),現(xiàn)有的財(cái)富與保費(fèi)率對(duì)投資型壽險(xiǎn)的需求影響不明確,消費(fèi)對(duì)投資型壽險(xiǎn)的需求有重要影響；(3)利用狀態(tài)空間模型的實(shí)證研究表明：收入對(duì)壽險(xiǎn)需求在不同的時(shí)期內(nèi)影響程度不一樣,利率對(duì)壽險(xiǎn)的影響和資本市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展相關(guān),通脹對(duì)壽險(xiǎn)需求的影響和壽險(xiǎn)險(xiǎn)種的構(gòu)成及投資型壽險(xiǎn)所占的比例有關(guān)。(4)利用動(dòng)態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型的實(shí)證研究表明,居民收入提高,為對(duì)抗通脹,獲得資產(chǎn)的保值增值而購(gòu)買(mǎi)投資型壽險(xiǎn)是其快速增長(zhǎng)的主要原因；股票對(duì)投資型壽險(xiǎn)需求具有較強(qiáng)的替代作用；短期內(nèi)消費(fèi)者更關(guān)注投資型壽險(xiǎn)的投資功能,長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)消費(fèi)者會(huì)考慮其保障功能,但由于其投資功能較強(qiáng),保障功能的影響并不顯著。
[Abstract]:The demand of life insurance is an important problem of theory and Practice Research on the management of insurance. One of the distinctive features of modern life insurance industry is the investment to occupy the absolute position, therefore, the past that to protect the type of product as the research object, the demand of life insurance theory need timely improvement. This paper focuses on the research of life insurance demand, especially investment life insurance as the research the key, in order to understand the law of demand. The investment life insurance investment oriented life insurance refers to insurance products will guarantee the function and the function of the combination of the use of funds, can give investors uncertain income, including red insurance, universal insurance and investment linked insurance. Because the investment life insurance also has safeguard and investment functions, the income is uncertain and difficult to collect relevant data, so the theoretical and empirical literature the demand for life insurance investment type scarce, individual literature remains to be perfect. Nearly ten For years, investment type insurance products has profoundly changed the pattern of the life insurance industry. At present, the life insurance industry is facing many problems, as well as the slowdown in the return of security products etc. Therefore, the demand for life insurance research especially has important theoretical and practical significance of investment life insurance demand.
This paper firstly defines the demand for life insurance and the related concept, development history of investment life insurance, introduces the specific varieties, analysis of its characteristics; and then summarizes the demand of life insurance theory, on this basis, make a qualitative analysis on the influencing factors of life insurance demand. Then establish the theoretical model of the theoretical model for the study of life insurance demand. In this paper, follow the principle of from simplicity to complexity, from the perspective of financial asset portfolio, in the framework of continuous time model, the basic model to first establish a life insurance protection, and then on this basis, further assumption that individuals are buying investment life insurance, the basic model is extended to the continuous time model of life insurance investment demand type.
On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper makes an empirical study of life insurance demand in China. Firstly, establish the state space model of variable parameters, using quarterly data for 1999-2010 years, the main economic impact on life insurance demand factors, such as income, the relationship between interest rates and inflation and the total demand of life insurance, empirical research, in order to understand the investment type insurance proportion rising, the change of life insurance demand. Then, the investment life insurance premium data of 35 large and medium-sized city for 2001-2010 years. The empirical test on the relationship between the life insurance demand factors affecting the investment of life insurance demand and investment type to establish dynamic panel model.
The above ideas and research based on the content, the innovation of this paper are: (1) on the basis of existing literature, constructed two new stochastic process, establishes the theoretical model of investment life insurance demand of the new model, the solution is simple, the result is simple, its economic significance ten obvious; (2) this paper mining economic significance of the explicit solution, the life insurance "Mawson" theorem, found the net wealth premium formula, and use it to explain the "annuity puzzle"; at the same time, for the first time that how to affect the consumer demand for life insurance, the life insurance protection and risk assets "separation theorem"; (3) simulation in this paper, the dynamic analysis results of life insurance demand, the economic significance is more obvious, and more close to reality; (4) for the first time using the state space model empirical analysis on life insurance demand in China, the different economic environment changes, people have new demand for life insurance (5) for the first time, the dynamic panel data model is applied to analyze the demand of investment life insurance. The factors that affect the investment life insurance are tested, and the understanding of the actual development of investment life insurance is increased.
Based on the above research, the main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) in the premium actuarial fairness in the case of life insurance protection is completely substitute for net wealth, the premium rate is the guarantee of life insurance marginal consumption tendency; (2) the expected income, the rate of return on investment life insurance, stock volatility, demand risk aversion the parameters and mortality on the investment is positive, the default rate of investment type insurance, stock returns, affect the demand of life insurance investment type of time discount factor is negative, and the premium rate of existing wealth effect on life insurance investment type of demand is not clear, has an important influence on consumption investment life insurance demand; (3 An Empirical Study of) the state space model of use shows that income on life insurance demand in different period of influence is not the same, the development of interest rate impact on life insurance and capital market related to the impact of inflation on life insurance demand and life A life insurance and investment type insurance proportion. (4) an empirical study using dynamic panel data model show that the income of residents increased, for the fight against inflation, the value of the assets obtained and the purchase of investment life insurance is the main reason for the rapid growth of the stock; has strong substitution effect on the demand of life insurance investment in the short term; consumers pay more attention to investment oriented life insurance investment function, long term consumers will take into account the security function, but because of its investment function is strong, security function is not significant.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F224;F840.62

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