本文選題：新農(nóng)保　切入點：農(nóng)民消費　出處：《中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：新型農(nóng)村社會養(yǎng)老保險政策是我國政府為了進一步保障農(nóng)民老年生活而推出的社會保障措施,該政策于2009年12月正式開展了試點工作,在一定程度上減輕了我國農(nóng)民的養(yǎng)老之憂,受到社會各界的廣泛好評。對于新農(nóng)保在宏觀經(jīng)濟領(lǐng)域的影響,即新農(nóng)保與農(nóng)民消費水平的關(guān)系,學(xué)術(shù)界一直存在爭議。本文建立了從大到小三個層次的模型,包括生命周期模型、倍差法模型和結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型,全面測算了新農(nóng)保對農(nóng)民消費的影響并深入探究了政策影響機制,為研究我國新農(nóng)保和農(nóng)民消費的關(guān)系貢獻了新的方法和思路。 首先,本文運用1997-2011年從探索到試點實施的數(shù)據(jù)做回歸分析,結(jié)果證明新農(nóng)保可以有效促進農(nóng)民消費增加,新農(nóng)保支出增加1%,消費相應(yīng)增加0.046%,說明新農(nóng)保在全國范圍內(nèi)具有拉動內(nèi)需的作用。其次,本文選取山西省作為代表省份,對其試點和非試點進行對比研究,根據(jù)倍差法建立的模型得出結(jié)論,在全省范圍內(nèi)新農(nóng)保抑制了消費增加；而經(jīng)濟條件較好的地區(qū)消費可以增加2.52%。這說明新農(nóng)保對于不同區(qū)域影響不同,實施力度還需要進一步加強。最后,本文運用結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型得出新農(nóng)保對農(nóng)民消費有正負兩方面的影響,通過增加農(nóng)民的安全感和收入感知促進農(nóng)民消費,同時新農(nóng)保的保費繳納也擠出了部分的消費。由此可見雖然新農(nóng)保在心理上減弱了農(nóng)民對未來養(yǎng)老的不確定性,但其保障作用仍有待加強。 經(jīng)過綜合研究,本文建議加大新農(nóng)保施行力度并盡快探索相關(guān)機制的創(chuàng)新。我國農(nóng)村社會保障和新農(nóng)保事業(yè)的發(fā)展體現(xiàn)了政府對農(nóng)民群體的關(guān)注和重視,也是我國社會穩(wěn)定、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展必不可少的后盾。本文從三方面提出了政策建議：(1)繼續(xù)加大新農(nóng)保實施力度,確保其持續(xù)健康發(fā)展；(2)重視對養(yǎng)老保障體系的研究,充分發(fā)揮其良性作用；(3)定期調(diào)研新農(nóng)保進展,完善數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計。
[Abstract]:The new rural social old-age insurance policy is a social security measure introduced by our government in order to further protect the elderly peasants' life. The policy officially launched the pilot work in December 2009. To a certain extent, it has alleviated the worries of the peasants for the aged in our country, and has been widely praised by all walks of life in the society. As for the influence of the new rural insurance in the macroeconomic field, that is, the relationship between the new rural insurance and the consumption level of the peasants, There has always been controversy in academic circles. In this paper, three levels of models from large to small are established, including life cycle model, double difference model and structural equation model. This paper comprehensively estimates the influence of new rural insurance on farmers' consumption and probes into the policy influence mechanism, which contributes new methods and ideas to the study of the relationship between new rural insurance and farmers' consumption in China. First of all, this paper uses the data from 1997 to 2011 to do regression analysis, the results show that the new rural insurance can effectively promote the increase of farmers' consumption. The expenditure of new rural insurance increases by 1 and consumption increases correspondingly by 0.046, which shows that the new rural insurance has the function of stimulating domestic demand in the whole country. Secondly, this paper selects Shanxi Province as the representative province, and makes a comparative study on its pilot and non-pilot projects. According to the model established by the double difference method, it is concluded that the new rural insurance can restrain the increase of consumption in the whole province, while the consumption in the areas with better economic conditions can increase by 2.52, which indicates that the new rural insurance has different effects on different regions. Finally, using the structural equation model, this paper draws a conclusion that the new rural insurance has a positive and negative impact on farmers' consumption, and promotes farmers' consumption by increasing their sense of security and income perception. At the same time, the premium payment of the new rural insurance has also squeezed out part of the consumption. It can be seen that although the new rural insurance weakens the uncertainty of the peasants' pension in the future psychologically, it still needs to be strengthened. After a comprehensive study, this paper suggests to strengthen the implementation of new rural insurance and explore the innovation of relevant mechanisms as soon as possible. The development of rural social security and new rural insurance in China reflects the government's concern and attention to farmers' groups, and is also the social stability of our country. This paper puts forward policy recommendations from three aspects: 1) continue to strengthen the implementation of new rural insurance, to ensure its sustainable and healthy development) and attach importance to the study of the old-age security system. Give full play to its positive role) regular research on the progress of new rural insurance, improve data statistics.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F323.8;F842.67

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