本文選題：農(nóng)作物保險　切入點(diǎn)：效果評估　出處：《中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：效果評估是風(fēng)險管理流程中十分重要的一環(huán)，通過效果評估既可以對擬定的風(fēng)險管理政策進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)，又能為風(fēng)險管理政策的進(jìn)一步完善提供依據(jù)。農(nóng)業(yè)保險的效果評估和模擬在美國農(nóng)業(yè)保險方案的完善過程中起到了十分重要的作用，而這項(xiàng)工作在我國卻十分滯后，雖然2007年以來我國政策性農(nóng)業(yè)保險獲得了巨大的發(fā)展，但實(shí)務(wù)中至今尚未開展全面、深入的效果評估工作。因此，在我國農(nóng)業(yè)保險一方面蓬勃發(fā)展、一方面經(jīng)營粗放、許多深層次問題亟待解決的背景下，我國農(nóng)業(yè)保險效果到底如何？如何進(jìn)行評估？應(yīng)該如何完善成為社會各界關(guān)注、爭論和研究的熱點(diǎn)，但學(xué)界在這方面的研究還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠。 基于此，為夯實(shí)學(xué)界在此方面的研究、為實(shí)務(wù)工作提供理論方法指導(dǎo)，本文在福利經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論、農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論、風(fēng)險管理理論的指導(dǎo)下，首先對農(nóng)作物保險效果進(jìn)行了理論分析，從目標(biāo)、實(shí)施主體、作用客體三個維度對農(nóng)作物保險效果的內(nèi)涵和作用機(jī)理進(jìn)行了剖析；其次，對保險效果的外在表現(xiàn)、度量指標(biāo)及影響因素進(jìn)行分析，在對效果評估已有方法進(jìn)行評述的基礎(chǔ)上，提出了基于農(nóng)戶效用等值和數(shù)值模擬技術(shù)的農(nóng)作物保險效果評估方法；然后，以河北、河南等10個省份1004個農(nóng)戶為例，借助數(shù)理統(tǒng)計軟件MATLAB、統(tǒng)計軟件STATA和專業(yè)風(fēng)險分析軟件SIMETAR對我國現(xiàn)行農(nóng)作物保險的實(shí)施效果進(jìn)行定量評估；最后對保額、保費(fèi)、保險產(chǎn)品、政府補(bǔ)貼比例等農(nóng)作物保險效果各影響因素的變動效果進(jìn)行了模擬仿真，提出了完善我國農(nóng)作物保險方案具體和有針對性的政策建議。 根據(jù)理論分析和實(shí)證模擬結(jié)果，本文得出了如下結(jié)論：1）從農(nóng)戶視角評估農(nóng)作物保險效果較為合適，作物保險效果可以利用農(nóng)民效用確定性等值進(jìn)行度量，利用數(shù)值模擬技術(shù)進(jìn)行評估；2）我國現(xiàn)行農(nóng)作物保險確實(shí)增加了農(nóng)民福利水平，對糧食大省的貢獻(xiàn)要高于其它省份，但改變保費(fèi)補(bǔ)貼資金的使用方式（如本文中假定直接補(bǔ)貼給農(nóng)民）可以發(fā)揮更大的作用，因此亟待完善；3）以縣為單位精算費(fèi)率能夠顯著提升農(nóng)作物保險效果（10個省份中有7個會因精算費(fèi)率而受益）；4）保額提高在政府補(bǔ)貼超過一定比例后會增加農(nóng)民農(nóng)業(yè)保險福利，保持農(nóng)民福利不變則可以適度降低政府補(bǔ)貼比例；5）50%及以上的平均保費(fèi)補(bǔ)貼比例是我國農(nóng)作物保險順利開展的前提；6）在政府保費(fèi)補(bǔ)貼一定的情況下保持高補(bǔ)貼比例更為重要；7）區(qū)域指數(shù)保險+個體保險補(bǔ)充的組合保險效果良好，該思路值得推廣試點(diǎn)。 本論文的創(chuàng)新之處主要體現(xiàn)在：第一，在農(nóng)作物保險效果評估的視角和方法方面具有一定創(chuàng)新性，較為系統(tǒng)的構(gòu)建了農(nóng)作物保險效果評估的理論分析框架，首次提出并運(yùn)用數(shù)值模擬技術(shù)對我國農(nóng)作物保險方案的實(shí)施效果進(jìn)行了定量評估，并對我國農(nóng)作物保險幾種優(yōu)化方案的效果進(jìn)行了模擬，提出了切實(shí)可行的優(yōu)化方案；第二，農(nóng)作物生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險評估評估是農(nóng)作物保險費(fèi)率厘定的關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)和重要基礎(chǔ)，以往評估方法存在低估風(fēng)險或無法具體到作物的缺陷，本文根據(jù)我國數(shù)據(jù)資源特點(diǎn)，在國內(nèi)外首次提出了基于數(shù)據(jù)融合的評估方法，克服了傳統(tǒng)評估方法的不足；第三，首次提出了我國農(nóng)作物保險可能的產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新形式：組合保險。
[Abstract]:Effect evaluation is a very important part of risk management in the process of the evaluation can test the proposed risk management policies, and further improve the risk management policy provides the basis for evaluation of agricultural insurance and the effect of simulation in the process of improvement of American agricultural insurance scheme plays a very important role, and the work in our country is very backward, although since 2007, China's agricultural insurance policy has achieved great development, but in practice has yet to carry out a comprehensive and thorough assessment work. Therefore, in the vigorous development of China's agricultural insurance industry on the one hand, on the one hand, management is extensive, many deep-seated problems to be solved under the background, China's agricultural insurance effect how? How to evaluate? How to improve a social concern, hot debate and research, but the academic research in this field is It's far from enough.
Based on this, for the study of solid circles in this aspect, to provide theoretical guidance for the practical work based on the theory of welfare economics, agricultural economics theory, risk management theory, firstly the theoretical analysis, from the target to the implementation of the main crop insurance effect, the three dimensions of role object connotation to crop insurance effect and the mechanism is analyzed; secondly, the external manifestations of the insurance effect, measure index and influencing factors analysis, based on the evaluation of the existing methods are reviewed, presents the method to evaluate the effectiveness of the equivalent of farmers and numerical simulation based on crop insurance effect; then, in Hebei, Henan and other 10 provinces in 1004 farmers as an example, using MATLAB statistical software, statistical software STATA and the professional risk analysis software SIMETAR on the effect of crop insurance in our country. We conduct quantitative evaluation. Finally, we simulate the effect of various factors on crop insurance effect, such as the amount of insurance, premium, insurance products and the proportion of government subsidies, and put forward specific and targeted policy recommendations for improving crop insurance program in China.
According to the theoretical analysis and empirical results, this paper draws the following conclusions: 1) from the perspective of farmers to assess crop insurance effect is more appropriate, crop insurance effect can be measured by the certainty equivalent utility, using numerical simulation technology for evaluation; 2) the current crop insurance in China has increased the level of farmers' welfare, the province of grain the contribution is higher than other provinces, but the change of premium subsidies (such as the use of the assumption of direct subsidies to farmers) can play a greater role, therefore needs to be improved; 3) to the county as a unit of actuarial rates can significantly enhance the effect of crop insurance (10 provinces in 7 due to the actuarial rate and benefit) 4); increase more than a certain proportion in the amount of government subsidies will increase farmers' agricultural insurance and welfare, the welfare of the peasants keep unchanged can moderately reduce government subsidies proportion; 5 50%) and above average proportion of premium subsidies is a prerequisite for the smooth development of the crop insurance in China; 6) to maintain a high proportion of subsidies is more important in the case of government premium subsidies of 7); regional index insurance + individual insurance supplement the portfolio insurance effect is good, the idea is worth promoting the pilot.
The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in: first, the innovative perspective and methods in the assessment of crop insurance effect, systematically constructs the evaluation of crop insurance effect theory analysis framework is proposed for the first time and the use of numerical simulation for quantitative assessment of the implementation of the effect of technology on China's agricultural crop insurance program, and the effect of of China's crop insurance several optimizing schemes are simulated, proposed the optimization scheme is feasible; second, risk assessment of crop production is the important foundation and key link of crop insurance pricing, the previous evaluation methods have underestimated the risk or not specific to the crop defects, according to the characteristics of China's data resources in China for the first time put forward an evaluation method based on data fusion, to overcome the shortcomings of traditional evaluation methods; third, for the first time in China were put forward. The possible product innovation of crop insurance: combination insurance.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F842.66

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