發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-12 15:32

  本文選題：“全面二孩”政策　切入點(diǎn)：人口老齡化　出處：《華中師范大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(人文社會科學(xué)版)》2017年05期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：人口老齡化對我國城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度帶來了挑戰(zhàn)。文章通過構(gòu)建人口預(yù)測模型和基金收支模型,研究了"全面二孩"政策調(diào)整下職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)社會統(tǒng)籌基金財(cái)務(wù)收支關(guān)系的變化。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):第一,"全面二孩"政策可以緩解人口老齡化進(jìn)程,到預(yù)測期末,政策調(diào)整生育率低、中、高方案下老齡化水平比基準(zhǔn)方案分別降低1.8、4.7和8.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn);第二,基準(zhǔn)方案下,社會統(tǒng)籌基金將分別在2025年和2032年出現(xiàn)當(dāng)期缺口和累計(jì)缺口;第三,"全面二孩"政策能夠改善統(tǒng)籌基金財(cái)務(wù)狀況,預(yù)測期末,政策調(diào)整生育率低、中、高方案下基金收入比基準(zhǔn)方案分別增加4.53%、12.59%和25.1%;第四,進(jìn)一步分析發(fā)現(xiàn),在維持原生育政策不變下的財(cái)務(wù)收支狀況時(shí),統(tǒng)籌基金繳費(fèi)率可以從20%下降至17.8%-19.52%。
[Abstract]:The aging of the population has brought challenges to the basic old-age insurance system of urban enterprise workers in China. This paper constructs a population forecasting model and a fund income and expenditure model. This paper studies the changes of the relationship between the financial income and expenditure of the basic old-age insurance social balance fund under the adjustment of the "comprehensive two-child" policy. It is found that: first, the "comprehensive second-child" policy can alleviate the aging process of the population, and reach the end of the forecast period. The fertility rate of the policy adjustment is low, and the aging level under the policy adjustment scheme is 1.84.7 and 8.1 percentage points lower than that of the benchmark scheme, respectively; second, under the benchmark scheme, the current and cumulative gaps will appear in the Social Co-ordination Fund on 2025 and 2032, respectively. Third, the "comprehensive two-child" policy can improve the overall financial situation of the Fund, and forecast the end of the year, the policy adjustment fertility rate will be low, and the fund income under the high scheme will increase by 4.53% or 12.59% and 25.1% respectively over the benchmark scheme; and 4th, further analysis will find that, When maintaining the financial income and expenditure under the original fertility policy, the contribution rate of the overall fund can be reduced from 20% to 17.8- 19.522.
【作者單位】： 華中科技大學(xué)社會學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家社會科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“生育政策調(diào)整下目標(biāo)人群的生育響應(yīng)研究”(16CRK004)
【分類號】：F842.67

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