本文選題：農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險　切入點：自我保險　出處：《四川農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：農(nóng)業(yè)是受自然災(zāi)害影響最大的產(chǎn)業(yè)。尤其是旱災(zāi)的發(fā)生不僅給農(nóng)民、農(nóng)村、農(nóng)業(yè)帶來巨大的損失,也給整個國民經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展造成影響。因此,建立健全農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險管理機制能夠確保農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展和國民經(jīng)濟的穩(wěn)定。自我保險和市場保險作為兩種有效的風(fēng)險管理工具,在Ehrlich和Becker(1972)在對保險需求的經(jīng)典研究中認(rèn)為兩者是相互替代的。但在農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險管理中,農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)保險和自我保險的關(guān)系是否同樣存在替代關(guān)系,實施農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)保險在多大程度上會擠出自我保險仍不明確。這將影響農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險管理整體水平的提高。 本文將發(fā)展Ehrlich和Becker(1972)的研究,對農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險管理中的自我保險與農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)保險的關(guān)系進行研究,并從自我保險的角度對農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)保險進行評價,最終促進整體農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險管理水平的提高。首先,明確農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險管理中的自我保險和農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)保險的概念,分析其作用和實施現(xiàn)狀。其次,借鑒Ehrlich和Becket(1972)對保險需求的分析框架,通過預(yù)期效用和無差異曲線理論,分析農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)保險與農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中自我保險是否相互替代,以及特殊性。最后,采用多元線性回歸分析模型對2010年的“四川省水稻旱災(zāi)保險支付意愿農(nóng)戶問卷調(diào)查”的數(shù)據(jù)進行實證分析。研究旱災(zāi)附加保險的購買是否影響防旱措施中自我保險的投入,從而驗證農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)保險是否對自我保險具有擠出作用。 本文的主要研究結(jié)論如下：(1)在農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險管理中的自我保險和農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)保險可以共存。在購買農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)保險后,農(nóng)戶仍然會進行自我保險。即在現(xiàn)有的農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)保險制度設(shè)計下,自我保險的風(fēng)險控制和農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)保險的災(zāi)后補償是相互結(jié)合,可以共存的。(2)農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)保險對自我保險存在有限擠出作用。購買農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)保險會減少自我保險的投入,但對于自我保險的整體水平而言,減少的程度有限。農(nóng)戶仍然會保持正常的自我保險投入。(3)農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)保險制度的設(shè)計可行,但保障水平卻仍需提高。農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)保險的普及率較高,災(zāi)害發(fā)生后能夠補償一定的生產(chǎn)成本,保障農(nóng)業(yè)的再生產(chǎn)。但目前的保障水平還難以實現(xiàn)確保農(nóng)民收入的增長,保障農(nóng)業(yè)投資安全,穩(wěn)定農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)。(4)同時提高農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)保險保障水平和減少自我保險成本能夠使農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險管理水平最大化。提高農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)保險補貼將更多地擠出自我保險,但完善農(nóng)業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施等措施將減少自我保險的成本,提高自我保險的水平。這將平衡增加農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)保險補貼對自我保險擠出作用。 根據(jù)研究結(jié)論,可提出以下幾點政策性啟示：(1)完善農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)保險,提高農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)保險的保障水平。(2)加強農(nóng)田水利建設(shè),完善農(nóng)業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,減少自我保險成本。(3)分散種植業(yè)風(fēng)險,促進非農(nóng)收入增加,提高農(nóng)民抗風(fēng)險能力。
[Abstract]:Agriculture is the industry most affected by natural disasters. Especially, the occurrence of drought not only brings huge losses to farmers, rural areas and agriculture, but also affects the development of the national economy as a whole. Establishing and perfecting agricultural drought risk management mechanism can ensure the sustainable development of rural economy and the stability of national economy. Self-insurance and market insurance are two effective risk management tools. In the classical study of insurance demand, Ehrlich and Becker (1972) considered that the two are mutually substituted. But in agricultural drought risk management, the relationship between agricultural drought insurance and self-insurance is the same. The extent to which the implementation of agricultural drought insurance will crowd out self-insurance remains unclear. This will affect the overall level of agricultural drought risk management. This paper will develop the research of Ehrlich and Becker (1972) to study the relationship between self-insurance and agricultural drought insurance in agricultural drought risk management, and evaluate the agricultural drought insurance from the perspective of self-insurance. Finally promote the improvement of the overall agricultural drought risk management level. First, define the concepts of self-insurance and agricultural drought insurance in agricultural drought risk management, analyze its role and implementation status. Using the framework of Ehrlich and Becketn 1972to analyze the demand of insurance, through the theory of expected utility and non-difference curve, this paper analyzes whether the agricultural drought insurance and the self-insurance in agricultural production replace each other and the particularity. Based on the multiple linear regression analysis model, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the data of the questionnaire on the willingness to pay of Rice drought Insurance in Sichuan Province in 2010, and studies whether the purchase of additional drought insurance affects the input of self-insurance in drought prevention measures. So as to verify whether agricultural drought insurance has an extrusion effect on self-insurance. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) Self-insurance in agricultural drought risk management and agricultural drought insurance can coexist. Farmers still carry out self-insurance. That is, under the design of the existing agricultural drought insurance system, the risk control of self-insurance and the post-disaster compensation of agricultural drought insurance are combined. Agricultural drought insurance has a limited effect on self-insurance. Purchasing agricultural drought insurance will reduce the input of self-insurance, but for the overall level of self-insurance, The degree of reduction is limited. Farmers will still maintain their normal self-insurance input. 3) the design of the agricultural drought insurance system is feasible, but the level of protection still needs to be improved. After a disaster occurs, it can compensate for certain production costs and ensure agricultural reproduction. However, the current level of guarantee is still difficult to ensure the growth of farmers' income and ensure the safety of agricultural investment. Increasing agricultural drought insurance benefits and reducing the cost of self-insurance can maximize the risk management level of agricultural drought. Increasing subsidies for agricultural drought insurance will more squeeze out self-insurance. But improving agricultural infrastructure and other measures will reduce the cost of self-insurance and increase the level of self-insurance. This will balance the effect of increasing agricultural drought insurance subsidies on self-insurance crowding out. According to the conclusions of the study, we can put forward the following policy implications: 1) improve agricultural drought insurance, improve the level of protection of agricultural drought insurance, and strengthen the construction of farmland water conservancy and improve the agricultural infrastructure. Reduce the cost of self-insurance. 3) disperse the risk of planting, promote the increase of non-agricultural income, and improve the ability of farmers to resist risks.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：四川農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F842.66

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