本文選題：動(dòng)物疫病　切入點(diǎn)：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析　出處：《華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的快速發(fā)展,我國(guó)居民動(dòng)物食品消費(fèi)大幅增加,由此推動(dòng)了畜禽產(chǎn)業(yè)的高速發(fā)展。截止2012年底,我國(guó)已發(fā)展成為畜禽產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)與消費(fèi)的第一大國(guó),畜禽產(chǎn)業(yè)在改善國(guó)人食物結(jié)構(gòu)、增加農(nóng)民收入及保障食物供給安全方面發(fā)揮了越來(lái)越大的作用。但與此相伴隨的動(dòng)物疫病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題也愈演愈烈,逐漸上升成為制約我國(guó)畜牧業(yè)持續(xù)發(fā)展的首要因素,并且還引發(fā)了較為嚴(yán)重的公共衛(wèi)生安全危機(jī)。生豬保險(xiǎn)作為生豬養(yǎng)殖業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的有效手段,成功地實(shí)現(xiàn)將農(nóng)業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在全社會(huì)范圍內(nèi)予以分?jǐn)?在保障我國(guó)養(yǎng)殖業(yè)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展,控制疫病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方面發(fā)揮了重要的作用。但是我國(guó)生豬保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展過(guò)程中也存在著一定的問(wèn)題,其中最為關(guān)鍵的便是養(yǎng)殖戶對(duì)生豬保險(xiǎn)有效需求不足的難題,造成這種現(xiàn)象有諸多方面的原因,而根據(jù)國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者的相關(guān)研究,生豬保險(xiǎn)保費(fèi)制定不合理,導(dǎo)致生豬保險(xiǎn)價(jià)格與價(jià)值出現(xiàn)較大的偏離,是致使農(nóng)戶生豬保險(xiǎn)購(gòu)買(mǎi)意愿較低的主要原因之一。因此,本文將圍繞上述問(wèn)題展開(kāi)研究,首先從疫病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)角度,構(gòu)建了我國(guó)生豬疫病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分布模型,并在此基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)我國(guó)生豬疫病災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了有效度量,旨在為我國(guó)生豬保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率的制定提供一定的理論支撐；其次,從養(yǎng)殖戶的角度出發(fā),根據(jù)實(shí)地調(diào)研所獲得的數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用實(shí)證方法分析造成我國(guó)生豬保險(xiǎn)購(gòu)買(mǎi)需求不足的原因。 首先,本文先對(duì)生豬風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估及生豬保險(xiǎn)需求相關(guān)國(guó)內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了相關(guān)梳理和闡述,其次對(duì)本文所需的相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ)也進(jìn)行了介紹分析,以期為之后的研究分析打好基礎(chǔ)。 其次,以我國(guó)生豬養(yǎng)殖業(yè)重大疫病為例,通過(guò)將疫病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與生豬死亡數(shù)之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行量化,運(yùn)用極值POT模型對(duì)我國(guó)生豬疫病災(zāi)害損失尾部分布進(jìn)行了有效擬合,構(gòu)建了我國(guó)生豬重大疫病損失的廣義Pareto分布模型。并利用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)價(jià)值法,實(shí)證分析和度量了我國(guó)生豬疫病發(fā)生的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平,計(jì)算出我國(guó)不同等級(jí)的生豬疫病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失的95%置信區(qū)間,構(gòu)建了我國(guó)生豬疫病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的基本框架。 隨后,基于養(yǎng)殖戶的視角,利用四川省資陽(yáng)市實(shí)地調(diào)研所獲取的188戶生豬養(yǎng)殖戶的問(wèn)卷資料展開(kāi)實(shí)證分析,以我國(guó)生豬保險(xiǎn)的購(gòu)買(mǎi)意愿為切入點(diǎn),從微觀視角研究了生豬保險(xiǎn)作為生豬疫病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理重要手段的有效性。研究結(jié)果表明,養(yǎng)殖規(guī)模、養(yǎng)殖意愿、投保程序、養(yǎng)殖保險(xiǎn)了解狀況、保費(fèi)補(bǔ)貼政策了解程度,疫病狀況是影響?zhàn)B殖戶生豬保險(xiǎn)購(gòu)買(mǎi)意愿的主要因素,進(jìn)而對(duì)生豬保險(xiǎn)發(fā)揮對(duì)疫病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制作用產(chǎn)生重大的影響。 最后,通過(guò)對(duì)我國(guó)生豬重大生豬疫病災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的分析評(píng)估及養(yǎng)殖戶生豬保險(xiǎn)購(gòu)買(mǎi)意愿的影響因素分析,提出了相關(guān)建議：強(qiáng)化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究,構(gòu)建疫病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分布模型；逐漸構(gòu)建畜牧業(yè)商業(yè)保險(xiǎn),形成全方位的畜牧保險(xiǎn)體系；制定有效地防控政策,高財(cái)政資金的利用效率；提高我國(guó)畜牧業(yè)養(yǎng)殖方式,實(shí)現(xiàn)規(guī)�；�(jīng)營(yíng)；完善撲殺補(bǔ)償機(jī)制；完善我國(guó)生豬保險(xiǎn)法律法規(guī),修改或調(diào)整生豬保險(xiǎn)條例中不合理成分；實(shí)施動(dòng)物疫病的區(qū)域化管理,加強(qiáng)我國(guó)無(wú)規(guī)定動(dòng)物疫病區(qū)建設(shè)。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy and society, China's consumption of animal food consumption increased significantly, thus promoting the rapid development of the poultry industry. By the end of 2012, China has become the first big country of production and consumption of livestock products, livestock and poultry industry in improving food structure of Chinese people, played an increasing role in increasing farmers' income and ensure food supply safety. But the animal disease risk associated with this has intensified, and gradually rose to become the primary factor restricting the sustainable development of animal husbandry in China, and also led to the serious public health security crisis. Pig insurance as an effective means of risk management of pig breeding industry, successfully achieve the agricultural risk in in the range of the whole society to share in, to ensure the stable development of aquaculture in China, has played an important role in controlling the epidemic risk. But China's pig insurance. There are also some problems in the development process, is the most crucial problem of insufficient farmers on pig insurance effective demand, cause there are many reasons for this phenomenon, and according to the related research of scholars at home and abroad, pig insurance premium set unreasonable, resulting in pig insurance price and the value of a larger deviation that is one of the main causes of farmers pig insurance purchase intention is low. Therefore, this paper will focus on the above issues, firstly, from the perspective of disease risk, constructs a model of risk distribution of pig disease in our country, and on the basis of pig disease disasters in China are effective risk measure, to provide certain theoretical support to develop as China's pig insurance premium; secondly, starting from the perspective of farmers, according to the field survey data obtained by empirical analysis result of China's pig insurance purchase The reason for the shortage of demand.
First of all, this paper first reviews and reviews relevant literatures on pig risk assessment and pig insurance demand. Secondly, it introduces and analyzes the relevant theoretical basis of this paper, hoping to lay a solid foundation for future research and analysis.
Secondly, with China's pig breeding industry of major diseases, for example, the relationship between the number of pig disease risk and death are quantified by the maximum POT model is effective to fit the epidemic disaster losses in China pig tail distribution, constructing the generalized Pareto distribution model of China's pig diseases of major loss. And the risk value method. The empirical analysis and measurement of the occurrence of pig disease in our country risk level, calculate the pig disease risk loss of different grade in our country of the 95% confidence interval, the basic framework of constructing pig disease risk assessment in China.
Subsequently, farmers from the perspective of empirical analysis by using Sichuan city in Ziyang Province, the investigation of the acquired 188 pig farmers survey data on pig insurance in China's purchase intention as the breakthrough point, from the micro perspective of pig pig disease risk insurance as an important means of effective physical results. The scale of farming, aquaculture, will, insurance procedures, aquaculture insurance premium subsidies to understand the situation, understanding the extent, disease status is the main factor affecting the willingness of farmers to buy insurance, and thus have a significant impact on the risk for disease control effect on pig insurance play.
Finally, analysis of the factors affecting the purchase intention through the China pig major epidemic disaster risk assessment and analysis of the pig pig farmers insurance, puts forward related suggestions: strengthen risk research, disease risk distribution model; gradually build commercial insurance of animal husbandry, animal husbandry and the formation of a full range of insurance system; to develop effective prevention and control policies, efficiency the use of financial funds; to improve China's animal husbandry, realize scale management; perfect compensation mechanism; perfect the insurance laws and regulations of our country, modify or adjust the insurance regulations unreasonable; the regional management of the implementation of animal disease, strengthen the construction of animal disease free Zone in our country.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F842.66;F326.3

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 湯穎梅;白云峰;王懷明;卞琳琳;;生豬疫病影響的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析[J];安徽農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué);2008年26期

2 陳風(fēng)波,柳鵬程,丁士軍;農(nóng)戶對(duì)水稻品種的采用和認(rèn)知——來(lái)自三省農(nóng)戶的調(diào)查[J];中國(guó)稻米;2004年02期

3 張家崢,李召展,劉小燕,信宏偉;當(dāng)前豬傳染病的發(fā)生特點(diǎn)、原因及防制對(duì)策[J];當(dāng)代畜禽養(yǎng)殖業(yè);2003年08期

4 王鵬;林萬(wàn)龍;;農(nóng)戶對(duì)奶牛保險(xiǎn)支付意愿的影響因素分析——以內(nèi)蒙古為例[J];調(diào)研世界;2010年02期

5 李德喜;;農(nóng)民在農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中的行為選擇與保險(xiǎn)需求研究[J];黑龍江對(duì)外經(jīng)貿(mào);2006年01期

6 閆振宇;陶建平;徐家鵬;李新建;;農(nóng)戶對(duì)養(yǎng)殖保險(xiǎn)認(rèn)知及購(gòu)買(mǎi)的影響因素研究[J];華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2011年06期

7 張心如,羅宜熟,杜干英,張正賢,張煒;動(dòng)物疫病與人類(lèi)健康[J];家畜生態(tài)學(xué)報(bào);2005年03期

8 楊海燕;陶建平;;動(dòng)物疫病對(duì)世界畜禽肉類(lèi)貿(mào)易的影響綜述[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究導(dǎo)刊;2008年08期

9 施紅;;財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼對(duì)我國(guó)農(nóng)戶農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)參保決策影響的實(shí)證研究——以浙江省為例[J];技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì);2008年09期

10 朱陽(yáng);王爾大;謝鳳杰;;影響?zhàn)B殖戶購(gòu)買(mǎi)政策性畜牧業(yè)保險(xiǎn)決策因素的實(shí)證分析——以遼寧省盤(pán)錦市為例[J];科技與管理;2011年05期

，

本文編號(hào)：1569168