本文關(guān)鍵詞： 四川省 農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn) 效應(yīng) VAR模型　出處：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：本文研究內(nèi)容是四川省農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展的效應(yīng)。本文首先就農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展效應(yīng)的內(nèi)涵進(jìn)行試探性研究,通過借鑒以往學(xué)者對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展效應(yīng)內(nèi)涵的解釋,本文提出應(yīng)從農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)的交互效應(yīng)和正負(fù)效應(yīng)兩個(gè)方面來分析其內(nèi)涵,并給出相應(yīng)的原因；在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文還提出研究四川省農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展效應(yīng)的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。接下來進(jìn)入文章的主體部分。筆者首先就農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展效應(yīng)進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)性的理論分析,并從兩個(gè)方面進(jìn)行理論分析,一方面是對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展帶來的正效應(yīng)進(jìn)行分析,其中主要包括農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)與財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼之間的相互促進(jìn)效應(yīng)、農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)與法律法規(guī)之間的相互推動(dòng)效應(yīng)、農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)與農(nóng)業(yè)保障之間的相互帶動(dòng)效應(yīng)、農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)與農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的相互拉動(dòng)效應(yīng)等：另一方面是對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展帶來的負(fù)效應(yīng)進(jìn)行分析,并主要就農(nóng)險(xiǎn)財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼的社會(huì)福利損失效應(yīng)進(jìn)行研究。通過以上對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展效應(yīng)進(jìn)行理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上,筆者考慮相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)的可獲得性,著重對(duì)四川省農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)與農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的相互拉動(dòng)效應(yīng)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,其中反映農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的指標(biāo)選為四川省第一產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值、四川省農(nóng)村居民人均純收入,反映農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展的指標(biāo)選為四川省單位受災(zāi)面積農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)賠款支出額、四川省農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)保費(fèi)收入,另外因農(nóng)業(yè)受災(zāi)程度是聯(lián)系兩者的重要變量,故筆者將其納入分析模型中,反映其指標(biāo)選為四川省農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害受災(zāi)比。選取的研究模型為VAR模型(vector autoregressive model),并根據(jù)運(yùn)行的具體結(jié)果對(duì)兩者之間的相互拉動(dòng)效應(yīng)進(jìn)行詳細(xì)分析,實(shí)證結(jié)論為：一方面,農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)保費(fèi)收入對(duì)第一產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值的存在顯著的正向影響,但存在滯后性,而農(nóng)險(xiǎn)賠款對(duì)第一產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值的存在顯著的正向影響,且不存在滯后性；另一方面,第一產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值和農(nóng)村居民人均純收入對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)保費(fèi)具有顯著的正影響。最后通過以上分析,筆者對(duì)如何提升四川省農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展效應(yīng)給出政策建議,主要包括：不斷提高四川省農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平,農(nóng)險(xiǎn)財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼政策的持續(xù)和合理化,加強(qiáng)農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)法律制度的建設(shè),加強(qiáng)農(nóng)業(yè)保障工作,農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)與農(nóng)業(yè)信貸相結(jié)合等。
[Abstract]:The research content of this paper is the effect of agricultural insurance development in Sichuan province. Firstly, this paper makes a tentative study on the connotation of agricultural insurance development effect, and explains the connotation of agricultural insurance development effect by drawing lessons from previous scholars. This paper puts forward that the connotation of agricultural insurance should be analyzed from two aspects: the interactive effect and the positive and negative effect, and the corresponding reasons are given. This paper also puts forward the practical significance of studying the development effect of agricultural insurance in Sichuan Province. Then, it enters the main part of the article. Firstly, the author makes a systematic theoretical analysis on the development effect of agricultural insurance, and makes a theoretical analysis from two aspects. On the one hand, it analyzes the positive effects brought about by the development of agricultural insurance, including the mutual promotion effect between agricultural insurance and financial subsidies, and the mutual promotion effect between agricultural insurance and laws and regulations. The mutual driving effect between agricultural insurance and agricultural security, the mutual pulling effect between agricultural insurance and rural economy, etc. On the other hand, the negative effect brought by the development of agricultural insurance is analyzed. Based on the above theoretical analysis of the development effect of agricultural insurance, the author considers the availability of relevant data. This paper focuses on the empirical analysis of the mutual pulling effect between agricultural insurance and rural economy in Sichuan Province, in which the index reflecting the development of rural economy is chosen as the added value of the primary industry in Sichuan Province, and the per capita net income of rural residents in Sichuan Province. The index reflecting the development of agricultural insurance is chosen as the expenditure amount of agricultural insurance indemnity per unit affected area of Sichuan province, the insurance premium income of Sichuan agricultural insurance, and because the degree of agricultural disaster is an important variable related to both, the author brings it into the analysis model. The research model selected as VAR model is vector autoregressive model. According to the specific results of operation, the mutual pulling effect between them is analyzed in detail. The empirical conclusions are as follows: on the one hand, The agricultural insurance premium income has a significant positive effect on the value added of the primary industry, but there is a lag, while the agricultural insurance indemnity has a significant positive impact on the value added of the first industry, and there is no lag; on the other hand, The value added of the primary industry and the per capita net income of rural residents have a significant positive impact on the agricultural insurance premium. Finally, through the above analysis, the author gives some policy suggestions on how to promote the development effect of agricultural insurance in Sichuan Province. The main contents include: continuously improving the level of rural economic development in Sichuan Province, continuing and rationalizing the policy of financial subsidy for agricultural insurance, strengthening the construction of the legal system of agricultural insurance, strengthening the work of agricultural security, combining agricultural insurance with agricultural credit, and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F842.66

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