本文關(guān)鍵詞： 上市保險(xiǎn)公司 股票價(jià)格 綜合模糊理論　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：保險(xiǎn)業(yè)是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的重要組成部分,保險(xiǎn)行業(yè)的健康發(fā)展關(guān)系著整個(gè)社會(huì)的安全與穩(wěn)定。改革開放以來,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速發(fā)展,居民的可支配收入水平迅速提升,這在很大程度上激發(fā)了居民對(duì)于保險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品的需求,保險(xiǎn)業(yè)迎來了快速發(fā)展的黃金時(shí)期。 目前,國內(nèi)A股市場(chǎng)有四家上市保險(xiǎn)公司,分別為中國人壽、中國太保、中國平安和新華保險(xiǎn),這四家險(xiǎn)企占據(jù)了國內(nèi)保險(xiǎn)行業(yè)近一半的市場(chǎng)份額,在行業(yè)中具有舉足輕重的地位。四家險(xiǎn)企在A股上市使投資者能夠有機(jī)會(huì)分享國內(nèi)保險(xiǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的成果,如何判斷上市保險(xiǎn)企業(yè)的股票價(jià)格走勢(shì),對(duì)投資者來講尤為重要。 本文采用定性和定量相結(jié)合的方法,從上市保險(xiǎn)企業(yè)面臨的內(nèi)部因素、外部因素著手,運(yùn)用層次分析法將內(nèi)、外因?qū)訉臃治?并采用綜合模糊理論對(duì)A股四大上市保險(xiǎn)公司的股票未來價(jià)格走勢(shì)進(jìn)行判斷。文章分為七部分,第一部分是導(dǎo)論,主要闡述了本文的選題背景、研究上市保險(xiǎn)公司股票價(jià)格的目的和意義、本文研究方法、創(chuàng)新之處及不足；第二部分闡述了主流的股票估值理論及其它們的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn),并介紹了國內(nèi)外當(dāng)前的研究現(xiàn)狀；第三部分介紹本文的研究方法——綜合模糊理論；第四部分將影響A股上市保險(xiǎn)公司發(fā)展的外部因素分為經(jīng)濟(jì)金融、人口社會(huì)和政策法律三方面,采用層次分析法詳細(xì)分析每個(gè)方面的子因素：第五部分從上市險(xiǎn)企業(yè)務(wù)狀況、公司治理和財(cái)務(wù)狀況三方面將四家A股險(xiǎn)企單獨(dú)分析,詳細(xì)了解四家保險(xiǎn)企業(yè)的內(nèi)部狀況；第六部分運(yùn)用綜合模糊理論對(duì)A股上市險(xiǎn)企的內(nèi)部、外部因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,并對(duì)四家險(xiǎn)企的股票價(jià)格走勢(shì)做出判斷；第七部分梳理全文的研究過程,并對(duì)全文進(jìn)行總結(jié)。 通過本文的研究,得出以下結(jié)論：四家上市保險(xiǎn)公司未來股票價(jià)格上升的可能性大于下降的可能性,其中,中國平安在四家險(xiǎn)企中表現(xiàn)最優(yōu),投資價(jià)值最高；國內(nèi)人口社會(huì)環(huán)境和政策法律環(huán)境對(duì)保險(xiǎn)公司的發(fā)展較為有利,而受國內(nèi)外宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響,保險(xiǎn)公司面臨的經(jīng)濟(jì)金融環(huán)境不佳；中國太保和中國人壽在業(yè)務(wù)經(jīng)營方面表現(xiàn)較佳,中國平安和中國太保在公司治理和財(cái)務(wù)方面表現(xiàn)突出。
[Abstract]:The insurance industry is an important part of the national economy. The healthy development of the insurance industry is related to the safety and stability of the whole society. Since the reform and opening up, the Chinese economy has developed rapidly, and the level of disposable income of the residents has been rising rapidly. This to a large extent stimulated the demand for insurance products, insurance industry ushered in a golden period of rapid development. At present, there are four listed insurance companies in the domestic A-share market, namely, China Life Insurance, China Taibao, China Ping an and Xinhua Insurance. These four insurance companies account for nearly half of the market share of the domestic insurance industry. It is very important for investors to judge the stock price trend of listed insurance companies. In this paper, the qualitative and quantitative methods are used to analyze the internal and external factors of the listed insurance enterprises, and the internal and external factors are analyzed by the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The paper is divided into seven parts, the first part is the introduction, mainly expounds the background of this paper. The purpose and significance of the research on the stock price of listed insurance companies, the research methods, innovations and shortcomings of this paper. The second part describes the mainstream stock valuation theory and their advantages and disadvantages, and introduces the current research situation at home and abroad. In the third part, the author introduces the research method-comprehensive fuzzy theory. Part 4th divides the external factors that affect the development of A-share listed insurance companies into three aspects: economy and finance, population, society and policy and law. Using AHP to analyze the sub-factors of each aspect in detail: part 5th analyzes the four A-share insurance companies separately from the three aspects of listed insurance business, corporate governance and financial situation, to understand the internal conditions of the four insurance companies in detail; Part 6th uses the comprehensive fuzzy theory to analyze the internal and external factors of A-share listed insurance companies, and makes a judgment on the stock price trend of the four insurance companies; 7th part combs the research process of the full text, and summarizes the full text. Through the research of this paper, the following conclusions are drawn: the possibility of stock price rising in the future of four listed insurance companies is greater than the possibility of falling, among which, Ping an of China is the best among the four insurance companies, and the investment value is the highest; The domestic population social environment and policy and law environment are more favorable to the development of insurance companies, but the economic and financial environment of insurance companies is not good due to the influence of domestic and foreign macroeconomic. China Taibao and China Life performed better in business operations, while China Ping an and China Taibao outperformed in corporate governance and finance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F842.3

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