本文關(guān)鍵詞： 小額保險(xiǎn) 農(nóng)戶小額信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān) logistic模型回歸　出處：《浙江財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：小額信貸作為國(guó)際上公認(rèn)的能夠幫助低收入人口特別是低收入農(nóng)戶脫貧最為有效的方式之一。在發(fā)展中國(guó)家中這是一項(xiàng)重要的金融創(chuàng)新，它對(duì)我國(guó)農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展有著重要的地位。它在調(diào)整信貸市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)、加大信貸供給、優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)以及解決農(nóng)戶和低收入人群收入低等方面發(fā)揮了重要作用。農(nóng)戶小額信貸在農(nóng)村金融中的地位不斷提高，我國(guó)開(kāi)展農(nóng)戶小額信貸機(jī)構(gòu)的規(guī)模也逐漸發(fā)展壯大。但是，隨著我國(guó)農(nóng)戶小額信貸在農(nóng)村全面開(kāi)展，因?yàn)橛酗L(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)系統(tǒng)主要責(zé)任不清楚,少參與機(jī)構(gòu)、層次結(jié)構(gòu)和其他問(wèn)題不清楚，出現(xiàn)了許多問(wèn)題擺在我們面前，導(dǎo)致有些地區(qū)農(nóng)戶小額信貸還款率逐年惡化，對(duì)農(nóng)戶小額信貸良好可持續(xù)發(fā)展帶來(lái)了嚴(yán)重的影響。因此，有必要建立一個(gè)合理有效的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)和轉(zhuǎn)移機(jī)制來(lái)降低信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的小農(nóng)民。近年來(lái),國(guó)家已經(jīng)推出了一個(gè)低保費(fèi)，適度保護(hù)，政策的樸素、簡(jiǎn)單的微型保險(xiǎn)，主要為農(nóng)戶和收入低的人群提供服務(wù)，它作為金融扶貧的有效手段，成為了我國(guó)小微金融的重要組成部分。小額保險(xiǎn)的出現(xiàn)從一定程度上可以作為分擔(dān)農(nóng)戶小額信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的手段，，但是其能否有效分擔(dān)農(nóng)戶小額信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，分擔(dān)效果如何，通過(guò)何種傳到機(jī)理進(jìn)行分擔(dān)，卻沒(méi)有人進(jìn)行探討過(guò)�；诖耍疚脑诮Y(jié)合國(guó)內(nèi)已有的“小額保險(xiǎn)+農(nóng)戶小額信貸”發(fā)展模式基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合浙江實(shí)地調(diào)研，在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理作為理論基礎(chǔ)的計(jì)量分析方法，首先從理論方面介紹面向農(nóng)村小額信貸市場(chǎng)是合理的進(jìn)行全面分析。然后，針對(duì)小額保險(xiǎn)作為分擔(dān)農(nóng)戶小額信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的工具，從經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的角度出發(fā)，通過(guò)博弈論方法來(lái)分析小額信貸機(jī)構(gòu)、保險(xiǎn)機(jī)構(gòu)與農(nóng)戶三方之間的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)機(jī)理。其次，實(shí)證方面：從農(nóng)戶角度，對(duì)浙江省內(nèi)的杭州、嘉興、臺(tái)州、溫州、桐鄉(xiāng)五地的農(nóng)戶小額信貸開(kāi)展?fàn)顩r采取了一對(duì)一的問(wèn)卷調(diào)查方式，獲取了第一手資料作為實(shí)證分析依據(jù)，采用Binary Logistic模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。通過(guò)實(shí)證分析，論證了小額保險(xiǎn)能夠分擔(dān)農(nóng)戶小額信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的作用，結(jié)果表明，戶主文化水平、家庭收入來(lái)源、耕地面積、是否購(gòu)買小額保險(xiǎn)、小額貸款的總額以及貸款利率會(huì)顯著影響農(nóng)戶是否受到小額信貸的約束，而且，信貸農(nóng)戶購(gòu)買的小額保險(xiǎn)額度越大，其對(duì)農(nóng)戶獲得小額貸款的作用越顯著。最后，在此基礎(chǔ)上，通過(guò)改進(jìn)當(dāng)前小額貸款和小額保險(xiǎn)的互動(dòng)機(jī)制的對(duì)策和建議，希望對(duì)小額信貸的國(guó)家結(jié)合開(kāi)發(fā)微型保險(xiǎn)的農(nóng)村金融改革激發(fā)了一些幫助。
[Abstract]:Microcredit, as one of the most effective ways of helping low-income people, especially low-income farmers, to lift themselves out of poverty, is recognized internationally as an important financial innovation in developing countries, It plays an important role in the development of rural finance in China. It is adjusting the structure of the credit market and increasing the supply of credit. It plays an important role in optimizing the industrial structure and solving the problem of low income of farmers and low-income groups. However, with the development of micro-credit in rural areas, because the main responsibility of risk-sharing system is not clear, less participation in institutions, The hierarchical structure and other problems are not clear, and many problems have appeared in front of us, which has led to the deterioration of micro-credit repayment rate of farmers in some areas year by year, which has had a serious impact on the good and sustainable development of micro-credit for farmers. It is necessary to establish a reasonable and effective risk-sharing and transfer mechanism to reduce the credit risk of small farmers. In recent years, the state has introduced a low-security fee, moderate protection, simple policy and simple micro-insurance. Providing services mainly to farmers and low-income groups, as an effective means of financial poverty alleviation, Microfinance has become an important part of micro-finance in China. The emergence of micro-insurance can be used as a means to share the risk of micro-credit to a certain extent, but whether it can effectively share the micro-credit risk of farmers, and how to share the effect, Based on this, based on the existing development model of "micro-insurance farmer micro-credit" in China, combining with the field investigation in Zhejiang Province, this article is in economics. Risk management as a theoretical basis of econometric analysis method, first of all, from the theoretical point of view to introduce the rural microfinance market is a reasonable comprehensive analysis, and then, for micro-insurance as a means to share the risk of micro-credit farmers, From the angle of economics, this paper analyzes the risk sharing mechanism among micro-credit institutions, insurance institutions and farmers through the method of game theory. Secondly, from the perspective of farmers, from the perspective of farmers, it analyzes the risk sharing mechanism of Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Taizhou in Zhejiang Province. In Wenzhou, Tongxiang, the development of micro-credit of farmers in five places adopted one-to-one questionnaire, obtained first-hand information as the basis of empirical analysis, using Binary Logistic model to carry out empirical analysis. This paper demonstrates the role of micro-insurance in sharing the risk of micro-credit of farmers. The results show that the education level of the head of household, the source of household income, the area of cultivated land, whether to buy micro-insurance, The total amount of small loans and the interest rate of loans will significantly affect whether or not farmers are constrained by microcredit. Moreover, the larger the amount of micro-insurance purchased by credit farmers, the more significant the effect on farmers' access to microcredit. Finally, on this basis, By improving the current interactive mechanism of micro-credit and micro-insurance, the author hopes to stimulate some help for the rural financial reform of micro-credit countries in combination with the development of micro-insurance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F842.66;F832.43

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