本文關(guān)鍵詞： 養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn) 城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi) 生命周期假說(shuō) 養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)覆蓋率　出處：《青島大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)的居民消費(fèi)率水平較低,與發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家存在一定差距。刺激消費(fèi)、擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需是我國(guó)今后很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間里經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的主要途徑。完善的社會(huì)保障制度能夠減輕居民對(duì)未來(lái)生活的擔(dān)憂,增加他們的消費(fèi)信心。因此,研究養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)支出與居民消費(fèi)之間的關(guān)系具有重要得意義。在對(duì)前人相關(guān)研究總結(jié)歸納的基礎(chǔ)上,本文首先分析了養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)影響居民消費(fèi)的主要理論,介紹了凱恩斯的絕對(duì)收入假說(shuō)、莫迪利安尼的生命周期假說(shuō)和預(yù)防性儲(chǔ)蓄理論,這為模型建立與實(shí)證分析奠定了理論基礎(chǔ)。其次,對(duì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)和城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行定性分析。簡(jiǎn)單介紹了養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)在我國(guó)的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r和城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)的變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)。本文認(rèn)為,養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)主要通過(guò)影響居民收入、居民收入的再分配和居民心理預(yù)期等方面影響居民消費(fèi)。再次,本文結(jié)合山東省的實(shí)際情況,基于生命周期假說(shuō)建立計(jì)量模型,對(duì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)與城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行定量分析。使用山東省2005至2015年17個(gè)地市的面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。以山東省城鎮(zhèn)人均消費(fèi)支出作為被解釋變量,城鎮(zhèn)人均基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)支出、城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入、養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)覆蓋率作為解釋變量,研究城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)支出與城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)支出的相關(guān)關(guān)系,為刺激居民消費(fèi)和完善養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度提供經(jīng)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)。實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示,養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)支出顯著影響居民消費(fèi)支出,并且與之呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系。最后,根據(jù)前文的研究結(jié)果,本文提出了完善社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度、刺激城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)的政策建議:落實(shí)責(zé)任主體,加快養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度轉(zhuǎn)軌進(jìn)程;提高養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)覆蓋率,發(fā)揮養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度的收入再分配職能;加強(qiáng)基金運(yùn)作,促進(jìn)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度的深層次發(fā)展;注重結(jié)合各地實(shí)際,提高養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)統(tǒng)籌層次。
[Abstract]:Our country's resident consumption rate is low, and there is a certain gap with developed countries to stimulate consumption. Expanding domestic demand is the main way of economic development in China for a long time in the future. A perfect social security system can alleviate residents' worries about future life and increase their consumption confidence. It is of great significance to study the relationship between endowment insurance expenditure and residents' consumption. Based on the summary of previous studies, this paper first analyzes the main theory of pension insurance affecting residents' consumption. This paper introduces Keynes' absolute income hypothesis, Modigliani's life cycle hypothesis and precautionary saving theory, which lays a theoretical foundation for model building and empirical analysis. Secondly. The relationship between endowment insurance and urban residents' consumption is qualitatively analyzed. The development of endowment insurance in China and the changing trend of urban residents' consumption are briefly introduced. Pension insurance mainly affects residents' consumption through influencing residents' income, redistribution of residents' income and residents' psychological expectation. Thirdly, this paper combines the actual situation of Shandong Province. The econometric model is established based on the life cycle hypothesis. This paper makes a quantitative analysis of the relationship between endowment insurance and urban residents' consumption. Using the panel data from 17 prefectures in Shandong Province from 2005 to 2015, the empirical analysis is carried out. The average urban consumption expenditure in Shandong Province is taken as the solution. Release variables. The basic old-age insurance expenditure per capita, the per capita disposable income of urban residents, the coverage rate of old-age insurance as an explanatory variable, the relationship between urban basic old-age insurance expenditure and urban residents' consumption expenditure is studied. In order to stimulate the consumption of residents and improve the pension insurance system to provide empirical data. Empirical results show that the expenditure of pension insurance significantly affects the consumer expenditure of residents and has a positive correlation. Finally. Based on the above research results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to perfect the social old-age insurance system and stimulate the consumption of urban residents: implementing the responsible subject and speeding up the transition process of the old-age insurance system; To improve the coverage of old-age insurance and give play to the income redistribution function of the old-age insurance system; Strengthening the fund operation and promoting the deep development of the old-age insurance system; Pay attention to combine with local reality, raise endowment insurance overall planning level.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F842.67;F126.1

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