本文關鍵詞：河南省冬小麥干旱保險風險評估與區(qū)劃，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

河南省冬小麥干旱保險風險評估與區(qū)劃

Winter Wheat Drought Disaster Insurance Risk Assessment and Regionalization in Henan Province

[1] [2] [3]

Ren Yifang Zhao Yanxia Wang Chunyi （Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences , Beij ing 100081）

中國氣象科學研究院,北京100081

文章摘要：以河南省冬小麥干旱為例，探討了農業(yè)氣象災害保險風險評估與區(qū)劃方法。首先，，在構建冬小麥不同生育期干旱指數(shù)的基礎上，結合農業(yè)保險的特征和精細化、專業(yè)化的需求，從氣象因子、作物產量以及社會經濟水平的角度選用干旱風險度、易損性指數(shù)、產量風險指數(shù)、抗災性能指數(shù)4個指標對致災因子、承災體易損性、災損風險、防災減災能力4個方面進行分析和評估。然后將上述4個保險風險評估指標細化到縣級，采用聚類分析方法，對河南省冬小麥干旱進行了氣象指數(shù)保險風險區(qū)劃和政策性保險風險區(qū)劃。兩種區(qū)劃結果表明：除豫西高風險區(qū)的個別縣互相重合外，其余各縣所屬風險區(qū)有較大差別。因此，針對不同的保險特點和需求，需要采用不同的區(qū)劃指標和方法，才能推行區(qū)域農、Ip保險，更好地實行籌別保除費率。

Abstr：Through quantifying the hazards and distribution of meteorological disasters which impact on crop growth and final yield, taking the drought of winter wheat in Henan Province as an example, a system methodology of the insurance risk assessment and regionalization of agrometeorological disasters is proposed. Based on the calculation of relative humility index in different growth stages, taking the moisture content co ercion sensitive coefficient given by Jensen multiplication model as the weighting factor, winter wheat drought in dex of entire period is established, while considering the first three months before emergence as the period before sowing, using the precipitation anomalous percentage combined with the contribution factors, the winter wheat drought index of entire period is revised and meanwhile the suitable winter wheat drought index for Henan is estab lished. After that, from the aspects of climatic factors, crop yield and social-economic, and after considering the characteristics of agricultural insurances and their requirements for elaboration, specialization, four indicators are used, including drought risk level, vulnerability index, yield risk index and anti-disaster ability, to evaluate the disas trous factors, vulnerability of crops, hazards of disaster events and ability of disaster prevention and reduction. mong these indexes, considering the social economy level and individual management scale, the vulnerability index is constructed by the winter wheat production efficiency index, production specialized index, and exposed index, which manifests the characteristics of agricultural insurance risk regionalization different from the general insurance risk regionalization. Finally, using these four indexe

文章關鍵詞：

Keyword：:Henan Province winter wheat drought insurance risk evaluation insurance risk regionalization

課題項目：資助項日：國家科技支撐計劃課題（2011BAI）32801,2011BAD32804）,國家自然科學基金項日（40875071）

作者信息：會員可見

  本文關鍵詞：河南省冬小麥干旱保險風險評估與區(qū)劃，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。