本文選題：民間資本　切入點(diǎn)：房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格　出處：《河北大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),我國(guó)民間資本存量在不斷增大,但近幾年我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入新常態(tài),實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)萎靡,因此大量的民間資本從實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)流出并流入上漲預(yù)期較強(qiáng)的樓市之中。與此同時(shí),隨著國(guó)家對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)調(diào)控政策的實(shí)施,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)通過(guò)銀行融資的方式難以為繼,民間資本在房地產(chǎn)投資資金來(lái)源中的占比逐步上升。眾所周知房地產(chǎn)是高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)行業(yè),民間資本在為房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)提供資金支持的同時(shí),由于民間金融市場(chǎng)盲目性、無(wú)序性、趨利性、不規(guī)范等缺陷,民間資本過(guò)度投資房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)極易造成市場(chǎng)泡沫,蘊(yùn)含著巨大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。本文主要研究民間資本投資對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格產(chǎn)生的影響,首先介紹我國(guó)民間資本投資房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的現(xiàn)狀,然后具體介紹民間資本投資房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的途徑,主要包括實(shí)體投資和房地產(chǎn)金融投資,即從購(gòu)房需求端和開(kāi)發(fā)供給端進(jìn)入房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)。然后通過(guò)運(yùn)用向量誤差修正模型、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)、方差分解以及格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)等計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法從市場(chǎng)整體和供求兩個(gè)角度對(duì)民間資本投資對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格產(chǎn)生的影響進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究,結(jié)果證明除房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格自身變量外,民間資本投資房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)是引起房?jī)r(jià)上漲的重要的原因,對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格有顯著的促漲作用,且影響時(shí)期較長(zhǎng)。最后從監(jiān)管、抑制房地產(chǎn)投機(jī)、建立房地產(chǎn)宏觀審慎指標(biāo)體系等方面對(duì)民間資本支持房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展提出了政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the stock of private capital in our country has been increasing, but in recent years, our economy has entered a new normal, and the real economy has been sluggish. As a result, a large amount of private capital flows out of the real economy and flows into the property market, which has strong expectations of rising. At the same time, with the implementation of the state's policy of regulating and controlling the real estate market, the real estate industry is unable to sustain itself through bank financing. As we all know, real estate is a high-risk industry. While providing capital support for the real estate market, private capital has become blind and disorderly in the private financial market. Due to defects such as profit trend and non-standard, private capital overinvestment in real estate market is easy to cause market bubble and contains huge risks. This paper mainly studies the influence of private capital investment on real estate price. This paper first introduces the current situation of private capital investment in real estate market in China, and then introduces the ways of private capital investment in real estate market, mainly including real estate investment and real estate financial investment. That is, entering the real estate market from the demand side of the house purchase and the development and supply side. Then, by using the vector error correction model, the impulse response function, The econometrics methods such as variance decomposition and Granger causality test have made an empirical study on the influence of private capital investment on real estate price from the perspectives of market and supply and demand. The results show that the real estate price has its own variables in addition to the real estate price itself. Private capital investment in the real estate market is an important reason for the rise in house prices, which has a significant effect on promoting real estate prices and has a long influence on them. Finally, from the perspective of supervision and control, real estate speculation is suppressed. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions on private capital to support the development of real estate market in the aspects of establishing macroprudential index system of real estate.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.23

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