發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-22 15:35

  本文選題：博弈論　切入點(diǎn)：城市軌道交通　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：城市軌道交通作為一種大容量的交通工具,能夠有效緩解城市交通擁堵。但由于其高昂的造價(jià),單純依靠政府投入進(jìn)行建設(shè)的模式很難滿足各個(gè)城市對城市軌道交通的需求,而PPP模式作為一種能有效吸引社會(huì)資金和技術(shù)的創(chuàng)新性融資模式,逐漸受到人們的重視。城市軌道交通PPP項(xiàng)目具有投資大、時(shí)間長、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高等特點(diǎn),項(xiàng)目中存在的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能否被公平、合理地分配是項(xiàng)目成功的關(guān)鍵,因此,對項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)的研究具有重要的理論和實(shí)踐意義。(1)分析了城市軌道交通項(xiàng)目的投融資特點(diǎn),闡述了 PPP模式的相關(guān)概念和特征,分析了城市軌道交通項(xiàng)目與PPP模式結(jié)合的效用性,說明了PPP項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)的內(nèi)涵和原則,并介紹了本文所采用的非合作博弈模型、隨機(jī)合作博弈模型和演化博弈模型等相關(guān)內(nèi)容。(2)闡明了城市軌道交通PPP項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)框架的內(nèi)容,包括風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)主體的劃分、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的識(shí)別及量化、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)流程的設(shè)計(jì),并對每一部分進(jìn)行了深入研究。其中,在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)主體劃分的基礎(chǔ)上,對其利益目標(biāo)進(jìn)行了分析;在全面識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的基礎(chǔ)上,采用集值統(tǒng)計(jì)模型對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的重要度進(jìn)行了量化計(jì)算,并進(jìn)行了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分級(jí);最后設(shè)計(jì)了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)的流程。(3)對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)主體在面對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)的合作態(tài)度構(gòu)建了演化博弈模型,分析了分擔(dān)主體最終演化為積極合作的條件;依據(jù)分擔(dān)主體的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好度和項(xiàng)目的產(chǎn)出收益構(gòu)建了完全信息靜態(tài)博弈模型,將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素劃分為非共擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和共擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn);通過構(gòu)建公共部門、私人部門和金融機(jī)構(gòu)三方的隨機(jī)合作博弈模型,對共擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的分擔(dān)比例進(jìn)行了研究,并采取修正的Shapley值對隨機(jī)合作博弈模型進(jìn)行求解。(4)結(jié)合北京市某地鐵線路PPP項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行了案例分析,對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)主體的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)態(tài)度進(jìn)行了仿真演化,對項(xiàng)目進(jìn)程中的非共擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和共擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了分類,計(jì)算了公共部門、私人部門和金融機(jī)構(gòu)對共擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的承擔(dān)比例,并對城市軌道交通PPP項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)制度的設(shè)計(jì)給出了相應(yīng)的建議。
[Abstract]:As a mass transit vehicle, urban rail transit can effectively alleviate urban traffic congestion. However, due to its high cost, it is difficult to meet the demand of urban rail transit by relying solely on government input for construction. As an innovative financing mode which can attract social funds and technology effectively, PPP model has been paid more and more attention. The PPP project of urban rail transit has the characteristics of large investment, long time, high risk and so on. Whether the main risks in the project can be fairly distributed is the key to the success of the project. Therefore, the research on the risk sharing of the project has important theoretical and practical significance. (1) the characteristics of the investment and financing of the urban rail transit project are analyzed. This paper expounds the related concepts and characteristics of PPP mode, analyzes the utility of the combination of urban rail transit project and PPP mode, explains the connotation and principle of risk sharing in PPP project, and introduces the non-cooperative game model adopted in this paper. The stochastic cooperative game model and evolutionary game model, etc. (2) expound the contents of the risk sharing framework of urban rail transit PPP project, including the division of risk sharing subject, the identification and quantification of risk factors, and the design of risk sharing process, including the division of risk sharing subject, the identification and quantification of risk factors, and the design of risk sharing process. Among them, on the basis of dividing the main body of risk sharing, the paper analyzes its benefit goal, and on the basis of identifying the risk factors in an all-round way, In this paper, the importance of risk factors is calculated quantitatively by using set-valued statistical model, and the risk classification is carried out. Finally, the process of risk sharing is designed, and the evolutionary game model is constructed for the cooperative attitude of risk sharing agents in the face of risk. The paper analyzes the conditions under which the sharing agent evolves into positive cooperation, constructs a static game model of complete information according to the risk preference degree of the sharing agent and the output income of the project, and classifies the risk factors into non-shared risk and co-bearing risk. By constructing a stochastic cooperative game model of public sector, private sector and financial institution, this paper studies the proportion of shared risk sharing. The modified Shapley value is adopted to solve the stochastic cooperative game model. The case analysis is carried out in combination with the PPP project of a metro line in Beijing, and the risk attitude of the risk sharing agent is simulated and evolved. Non-shared risks and shared risks in the project process were classified and the share of the public sector, the private sector and financial institutions was calculated, The design of risk sharing system for PPP project of urban rail transit is also given.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F572;F283;O225

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