本文選題：養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)　切入點：REITs　出處：《江西理工大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：當前,我國老齡人口面臨著增速快、老齡化趨勢明顯的嚴峻現(xiàn)狀,對養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)及相應(yīng)的養(yǎng)老服務(wù)的需求也日益增加且多樣化,為我國養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)行業(yè)發(fā)展提供了良好機遇。目前在我國正處于養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)行業(yè)發(fā)展的起步階段,對目標客戶市場的定位還不清晰,劃分也不夠明確,對養(yǎng)老產(chǎn)業(yè)相應(yīng)的產(chǎn)品把握不全。雖然集養(yǎng)老醫(yī)療保健、休閑娛樂于一體的養(yǎng)老產(chǎn)業(yè)逐漸興起,但資金規(guī)模需求量大、融資渠道單一的問題使得養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)得不到與之潛力增速相匹配的發(fā)展,這在一定程度上阻礙了養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)的發(fā)展。房地產(chǎn)投資信托基金(Real Estate Investment Trusts簡稱REITs)作為我國新興的金融工具,對解決資金過分依賴銀行貸款、緩解銀行資金壓力、拓寬金融投資渠道等方面具有積極作用。養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)不同于普通的商業(yè)和住宅地產(chǎn),投資回收期較長且具有一定的社會福利性質(zhì),開發(fā)建設(shè)資金若僅依靠銀行貸款和自有資金,是遠遠不夠的。因此將REITs應(yīng)用于養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)項目中,具有一定的可行性和必要性。在養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)REITs模式中,涉及的參與方較多,因此要對該模式下的潛在風險進行更為深入的分析,以保證REITs模式在養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)項目上的成功運用,進而促進我國養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)的健康有序發(fā)展。本文通過理論研究、文獻分析調(diào)研的方法,分析了我國發(fā)展養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)REITs的可行性和必要性,并從風險識別、風險評估和風險分擔等方面構(gòu)建了養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)REITs模式的風險管理過程。運用德爾菲法將各風險因素進行劃分并取得統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),在此基礎(chǔ)上,運用灰色—模糊綜合評價方法對養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)REITs模式中所面臨的風險進行科學定量的評估,構(gòu)建了灰色—模糊評價矩陣,利用層次分析法和熵權(quán)法確定并改進各個風險指標的權(quán)重,明確項目所處的風險水平;最后結(jié)合案例項目中的具體情況,從高風險因素方面分析并提出行之有效的解決方法和應(yīng)對措施,也提出了養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)REITs模式融資風險分擔處理的相關(guān)方案。通過研究發(fā)現(xiàn),運營管理風險、市場風險以及政策風險是養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)REITs模式運行過程中最為突出的三類風險,同時對養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)REITs模式的風險分擔來說,基金管理人、開發(fā)商以及投資者均應(yīng)承擔風險。對于國家來說,也應(yīng)該從法律法規(guī)的完善、監(jiān)管制度的施行來規(guī)范養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)REITs市場。
[Abstract]:At present, the aging population in our country is facing a rapid growth rate and an obvious aging trend. The demand for old-age real estate and the corresponding old-age services is also increasing and diversifying. It provides a good opportunity for the development of the pension real estate industry in our country. At present, it is in the initial stage of the development of the pension real estate industry in our country, the positioning of the target customer market is not clear, and the division of the target customer market is not clear enough. The corresponding products of the old-age industry are not fully grasped. Although the old-age industry, which integrates the medical care for the aged and leisure and entertainment, is gradually emerging, the scale of funds is in great demand. The problem of single financing channel makes the development of pension real estate can not be matched with its potential growth rate, which to some extent hinders the development of pension real estate. Real estate investment trust fund Real Estate Investment Trusts is a new financial instrument in China. It plays a positive role in solving the problem of excessive reliance on bank loans, easing the pressure on bank funds and broadening the channels of financial investment. The old-age real estate is different from ordinary commercial and residential real estate. The payback period of investment is long and has the nature of social welfare. It is far from enough to rely on bank loans and own funds for development and construction funds. Therefore, the application of REITs in pension real estate projects is far from enough. In order to ensure the successful application of the REITs model in the pension real estate project, there are many participants involved in the REITs model, so the potential risk under this model should be analyzed more deeply. Through theoretical research and literature analysis, this paper analyzes the feasibility and necessity of developing endowment property REITs in China, and identifies the risks. In the aspects of risk assessment and risk sharing, the paper constructs the risk management process of pension real estate REITs model, classifies each risk factor and obtains statistical data by Delphi method, and on this basis, The grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the risk in the old-age real estate REITs model scientifically and quantitatively, and the grey fuzzy evaluation matrix is constructed. The weight of each risk index is determined and improved by using the analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method. Finally, combining with the specific situation of the case project, the paper analyzes and puts forward effective solutions and countermeasures from the aspect of high risk factors. The paper also puts forward the related scheme to deal with the financing risk sharing of the pension real estate REITs model. Through the research, it is found that the operation management risk, the market risk and the policy risk are the most prominent three kinds of risks in the operation of the pension real estate REITs model. At the same time, fund managers, developers and investors should bear the risk for the risk sharing of the pension real estate REITs model. For the country, we should standardize the pension real estate REITs market from the perfection of laws and regulations and the implementation of supervision system.
【學位授予單位】：江西理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23;D669.6

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