本文關(guān)鍵詞： 高校網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情 等級(jí)劃分模型 預(yù)測(cè)模型 研判　出處：《昆明理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)及其支撐產(chǎn)業(yè)的飛速發(fā)展,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)已經(jīng)成為人們?nèi)粘Ｙ?gòu)物、娛樂和信息工溝通的重要渠道。由于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)信息傳播快、覆蓋廣、影響大,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)在給人們的信息溝通帶來便捷的同時(shí),也會(huì)產(chǎn)生的一些不和諧的社會(huì)輿論,給社會(huì)發(fā)展和政治經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定帶來一定的、甚至有時(shí)是至關(guān)重要的負(fù)面影響。另外,隨著大多數(shù)高校逐漸實(shí)現(xiàn)校園網(wǎng)絡(luò)的全覆蓋,高校網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情已經(jīng)成為影響大學(xué)生群體性事件發(fā)生和演變的重要因素,受到政府部門和各界專家學(xué)者們?cè)絹碓蕉嗟年P(guān)注。加強(qiáng)高校網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情信息的監(jiān)測(cè)、收集、研判、引導(dǎo)和處理能力,建立完善的網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情的引導(dǎo)機(jī)制,對(duì)于創(chuàng)造良好的校園網(wǎng)環(huán)境和輿論氛圍,維護(hù)校園的安全穩(wěn)定具有十分重要的意義,是高校網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情管理的重要內(nèi)容,也是新時(shí)期高校網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情建設(shè)所面臨的重要課題。本文針對(duì)高校網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情監(jiān)控管理中的輿情研判難點(diǎn)問題進(jìn)行研究。首先通過研究大量高校網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情的特點(diǎn),闡述了高校網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情的特點(diǎn)和爆發(fā)的規(guī)律,以K高校的網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情環(huán)境和特點(diǎn)為例,總結(jié)了影響高校網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵因素,并以主要相關(guān)的12個(gè)定量和定性的影響因子作為評(píng)判指標(biāo),運(yùn)用層次分析法,通過權(quán)重計(jì)算和加權(quán)算法將網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情劃分為A、B、C、D四個(gè)等級(jí),建立網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情等級(jí)劃分模型;然后,運(yùn)用基于邏輯斯蒂(Logistic)模型的數(shù)學(xué)預(yù)測(cè)模型,借助MATLAB軟件通過對(duì)K高校輿情事件的歷史數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行處理,建立出不同等級(jí)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情發(fā)展預(yù)測(cè)模型,為網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情的研判提供參考依據(jù),判定所發(fā)現(xiàn)輿情所處的發(fā)展時(shí)期及發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。最后,對(duì)K高校現(xiàn)有的工作處理流程做出具體的改進(jìn)建議,明確各環(huán)節(jié)的工作職能,并對(duì)發(fā)現(xiàn)輿情的等級(jí)與時(shí)期的判定,提出明確的處理建議方案。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of network technology and its supporting industry, the Internet has become an important channel of daily shopping, entertainment and information communication. The Internet not only brings convenience to people's information communication, but also produces some disharmonious social public opinion, which brings about certain degree of social development and political and economic stability. In addition, with most colleges and universities gradually realize the full coverage of campus network, university network public opinion has become an important factor affecting the occurrence and evolution of college students' mass events. By the government departments and experts and scholars from all walks of life more and more attention. Strengthen the monitoring of university network public opinion information collection research guidance and processing ability to establish a sound network public opinion guidance mechanism. For the creation of a good campus network environment and public opinion atmosphere, the maintenance of campus security and stability has a very important significance, is an important content of university network public opinion management. It is also an important subject in the construction of university network public opinion in the new era. This paper studies the difficult problems of network public opinion monitoring and management in colleges and universities. Firstly, it studies the characteristics of a large number of university network public opinion. This paper expounds the characteristics and law of network public opinion in colleges and universities, and summarizes the key factors that affect the development of network public opinion in colleges and universities, taking the environment and characteristics of network public opinion in K colleges and universities as an example. And the main related 12 quantitative and qualitative impact factors as evaluation indicators, using the Analytic hierarchy process, through the weight calculation and weighting algorithm to divide the network public opinion into four levels of Agni Bang Cong D. Establish the network public opinion classification model; Then, the mathematical prediction model based on logistic model is used, and the historical data of public opinion events in K colleges and universities are processed with the help of MATLAB software. Establish different levels of network public opinion development prediction model, for the study of network public opinion to provide a reference basis, determine the public opinion found in the development period and development trend. Finally. This paper makes concrete improvement suggestions on the existing work processing flow of K colleges and universities, clarifies the working functions of each link, and puts forward a clear plan to deal with the level and period of finding public opinion.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：G647

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