【摘要】：現(xiàn)代化運(yùn)輸業(yè)是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè),快速、安全的運(yùn)輸形式可以加速我國的物資、人員流動和資金流轉(zhuǎn),保障我國社會生產(chǎn)的連續(xù)性和高效性、促進(jìn)我國地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。伴隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會的不斷發(fā)展,高速鐵路已成為優(yōu)先發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略性新興產(chǎn)業(yè)。高速鐵路作為一種高速度、大運(yùn)量的高效率交通工具,具有投資規(guī)模大、技術(shù)要求高、系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行復(fù)雜的特點,是一個集技術(shù)性和經(jīng)濟(jì)性于一體的大型系統(tǒng)工程。為了更好的實現(xiàn)社會的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,高速鐵路的合理建設(shè)與高效運(yùn)行已經(jīng)變得越來越緊迫。由于高速鐵路運(yùn)行體系的投資巨大,運(yùn)行復(fù)雜,高速鐵路自身運(yùn)營的成本-效益、運(yùn)行效率又進(jìn)一步影響著人們對運(yùn)輸方式的選擇,從而影響到高速鐵路運(yùn)行企業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益和社會效益。由于我國高速鐵路的發(fā)展還處于起步階段,許多問題有待研究,因此,本文的研究內(nèi)容具有較為明顯的創(chuàng)新性和理論研究價值,具體如下：(1)對高速鐵路客流量的影響因素進(jìn)行分析,是制定合理的市場營銷策略,實現(xiàn)優(yōu)化運(yùn)營的前提。論文從社會、經(jīng)濟(jì)、政策、營運(yùn)策略以及旅客自身條件等方面出發(fā),對高速鐵路客流量的影響因素進(jìn)行了分析。運(yùn)用基于競爭視野的自主式綜合評價對影響高速鐵路客流量的主要因素進(jìn)行了評價,得到了按重要性排序的高速鐵路客流量影響因素,并且研究分析了它們與客流量的關(guān)系,為鐵路部門研究提出優(yōu)化運(yùn)營策略提供了可能。(2)對京滬高速鐵路目前及未來的客流量變化進(jìn)行科學(xué)預(yù)測,是為合理安排車次、座位等運(yùn)營內(nèi)容的基礎(chǔ)工作。作者通過介紹我國高速鐵路運(yùn)營現(xiàn)狀和客流預(yù)測的基本理論,在此基礎(chǔ)上分析了傳統(tǒng)客流預(yù)測方法和人工智能預(yù)測方法各自的適用情況及優(yōu)缺點,然后提出了適用于短期客流量預(yù)測的支持向量機(jī)方法,并利用非參數(shù)GARCH模型對預(yù)測誤差進(jìn)行修正以提高預(yù)測精度。(3)在車次確定的情況下,合理安排不同類型的座位,可以提高每輛車次的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。結(jié)合高速鐵路出現(xiàn)的某些票額過剩與某些票額不足的問題,為了提高高速鐵路整體上座率與收益,本文介紹了與票額分配問題相關(guān)的收益管理論的基本概念、理論及方法,繼而闡述了高速鐵路票額分配方法現(xiàn)狀,并通過多角度對高速鐵路應(yīng)用收益管理實現(xiàn)收益最大化票額分配的可能性進(jìn)行分析。然后構(gòu)建了在確定約束條件下的票額分配模型,最后利用列生成算法求解模型,證明了模型的可行性。(4)降低高速鐵路的動力用電成本,是實現(xiàn)優(yōu)化運(yùn)營的重要方面。高速鐵路運(yùn)行中所產(chǎn)生的諧波,通常會對電網(wǎng)行成沖擊。在“誰污染、誰治理”的原則下,高速鐵路運(yùn)行中產(chǎn)生的諧波通常會招致電網(wǎng)的處罰,導(dǎo)致運(yùn)營成本的增長。論文系統(tǒng)介紹了高速鐵路諧波的產(chǎn)生機(jī)理、高速鐵路諧波的特點、電力機(jī)車的傳動機(jī)制,并分析了高速鐵路電力機(jī)車運(yùn)行與諧波之間的關(guān)系。為治理京滬高速鐵路運(yùn)行中制造的諧波污染提供了新途徑。
[Abstract]:The modern transport industry is an important basic industry of the national economy. The rapid and safe transportation form can accelerate the circulation of materials, personnel and funds in our country, guarantee the continuity and high efficiency of our social production and promote the economic development of our country. With the development of our country's economy and society, the high-speed railway has become a strategic emerging industry. The high-speed railway, as a high-speed and large-volume high-efficiency vehicle, has the characteristics of large investment scale, high technical requirements and complex system operation, and is a large-scale system engineering with a technical and economic integration. In order to achieve the sustainable development of the society, the rational construction and efficient operation of the high-speed railway have become more and more urgent. Due to the huge investment of the high-speed railway operation system, the complex operation and the cost-benefit of the high-speed railway itself, the operation efficiency further influences the selection of the transportation mode, thus affecting the economic and social benefits of the high-speed railway operation enterprises. Because of the development of high-speed railway in China, many problems need to be studied. It is the premise of developing reasonable marketing strategy and realizing the optimization operation. The paper analyzes the influencing factors of high-speed railway passenger flow from the aspects of social, economic, policy, operation strategy and passenger's own condition. The main factors that influence the passenger flow of the high-speed railway are evaluated by the independent comprehensive evaluation based on the competition field, and the influence factors of the high-speed railway passenger flow according to the importance are obtained, and the relationship between them and the passenger flow is analyzed and analyzed. It is possible to provide an optimized operation strategy for the research of the railway department. (2) The current and future passenger flow changes of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway are scientifically predicted, and the basic work of the operation content such as the train time and the seat can be reasonably arranged. By introducing the present situation of high-speed railway operation and the basic theory of passenger flow forecast, the author analyzes the application and advantages and disadvantages of the traditional passenger flow forecast method and the artificial intelligence prediction method, and then puts forward the method of support vector machine for short-term passenger flow prediction. and the prediction error is corrected by using a non-parametric GARCH model to improve the prediction accuracy. (3) Reasonable arrangement of different types of seats in the case of vehicle subdetermination can improve the economic benefit of each vehicle. In order to improve the overall high-speed railway, the basic concept, theory and method of the income management theory related to the distribution of the ticket amount are introduced in order to improve the overall seating rate and the income of the high-speed railway. In turn, the present situation of the high-speed railway ticket distribution method is described, and the possibility of maximizing the distribution of the ticket amount is analyzed through the multi-angle high-speed railway application income management. Then, the model of the ticket distribution under the constraint condition is constructed, and the model is solved by the column generation algorithm, and the feasibility of the model is proved. (4) Reducing the power utilization cost of high-speed railway is an important aspect to realize the optimization operation. The harmonics generated in the operation of high-speed railways usually impact the grid lines. Under the principle of 鈥淲ho pollutes, who manages鈥，

本文編號：2389234